一种基于认知过程分析的人因失误辨识方法——应用于高速铁路列车调度系统

通过总结既有的人因失误分类方法,对主要分类方法的优缺点和适用性进行了评述。既有的人因失误分类方法主要侧重于人因事故分析,在对人的认知过程四阶段尤其是计划决策阶段的失误模式进行主动辨识具有较大的困难。通过综合认知行为四阶段模型和技能型-规则型-知识型行为理论(SRK理论),建立了高铁列车调度指挥认知行为SRK模型。以认知行为SRK模型为基础,提出一种新的人因失误分类方法用以人因失误辨识。以高铁列车调度指挥临时限速为任务背景,进行实际的人因失误辨识工作,并给出了详细的辨识结果。通过对列车调度员的访谈,辨识结果全面覆盖了临时限速时可能出现的人因失误类型,验证了方法的实用性。     

Fisher法在土壤污染综合评价优化布点中的应用

根据Fisher最优分割的理论,研究其应用于土壤环境监测优化布点的可行性。以福建省闽江河口湿地土壤重金属污染综合评价为实例,用Fisher法计算不同分类方式下的最小误差函数,确定最优的分割方法,确定优化布点方案。结果表明,原布设的8个监测点用Fisher法优化为3个典型点位,可客观反映闽江河口湿地土壤重金属污染的综合评价结果。     

继承性宇生核素在冰川地貌暴露测年中的研究进展

原地生成宇宙成因核素（in situ terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide,TCN）暴露测年技术已被广泛应用于全球冰川地貌的年代测定中。继承性核素（inheritance,核素残留）作为影响TCN暴露测年的重要因素之一,一直以来受到许多学者的关注。然而,继承性核素对暴露测年结果有无影响、影响程度有多大还存在争论。梳理该方面的研究将有助于进一步了解继承性宇生核素对TCN暴露测年的影响,进而提高测年的精确性。基于此,整理了2009—2017年共计54篇全球关于第四纪冰川宇生核素继承性文献,简述继承性核素的产生背景和研究进展,重点探讨核素残留对TCN暴露测年的影响程度以及在实际应用中如何降低其对测年数据的影响。结果表明：继承性核素会导致冰碛物出现异常老化和分散的暴露年龄,可通过选取合适的地貌部位及多样化的抽样和多样品方法,也可尝试采集现代冰川冰碛物定量化研究继承性核素的影响。     

南京台数字水准仪往返观测误差分析

2006年初,省局给台站更换了DiNi12数字化水准仪,通过近几个月观测,观测数据测线观测数据上午往测观测高差偏大,下午返测观测高差偏小的现象,经分析认为:造成这种现象的主要原因与仪器受温度、太阳光照射影响有关.     

光记录相纸由湿度引起的量算误差

光记录相纸在不同的湿度下其宽度变化达 4 2 % ,而由此引起的误差将大大超过资料质量评比条例所规定的量标误差值 ,给数据处理带来影响。本文通过实验 ,得出了在不同湿度下的误差值 ,并提出解决该问题的一些办法与建议。     

Imputing Unmeasured Explanatory Variables in Environmental Epidemiology With Application to Health Impact Analysis of Air Pollution

This paper presents the results of a reconsideration of earlier work that finds an association between daily hospital admissions for respiratory distress and daily concentrations of sulphate (lag 1) as well as daily maximum concentrations of ozone (lags 1 and 3). These associations are found even after clustering the data by hospital of admission and accounting for the effects of temperature. We use an adaptation of their generalized estimating equation technique for clustered data, that daily data being for southern Ontario summers from 1983 to 1988. Like them, we adjust for daily maximum temperatures. However, unlike the earlier work returned to ours includes daily average humidity as a potential explanatory variable in our model. Our analysis also differs from theirs in that we cluster the data by census subdivision to reduce the risk of confounding pollutant levels with population size within regions. Moreover, we log-transform the explanatory variables and then high-pass filter the resulting data. We also deviate from the earlier analysis by taking account of measurement error incurred in using surrogate measures of the explanatory variables. To do so we use new methodology designed for our study but of potential value in other applications. That methodology requires a spatial predictive distribution for the unmeasured explanatory variables. Each day about 700 missing measurements for each of these variables can then be imputed over the geographical domain of the study. With these imputations we get a measure of imputation error through the covariance of the predictive distribution. Along with the predictive distribution we require an impact model to link-up with the predictive distribution. We describe that model and show how it uses the imputed measurements of the missing values of the explanatory variables. We also show how through that model, uncertainty about these values is reflected in our analysis and in commensurate uncertainties in the inferences made. Apart from its substantive objectives, our analysis serves to test the new methods with the earlier results serving as a foil. The reassuring qualitative agreement between our findings and the earlier results seems encouraging.     

深入调查研究 把握主要矛盾 努力开创防震减灾工作新局面

在“九五”期间 ,江苏省地震局深入调查研究 ,把握主要矛盾 ,深化各项改革 ,狠抓实事实办 ,强化政府行政职能 ,加强宣传力度 ,加强地方地震机构建设 ,注重规划和计划的制订与实施 ,不断理顺拨款渠道 ,健全地方财政对地震事业投入的预算体制 ,健全行政规章、规范管理行为 ,加强法规建设、强化法制管理。经努力 ,各项工作取得了明显成效 ,1 996～ 1 999年 ,全局各类经费总来源为前 4年的 3 1倍 ;地震监测系统的数字化、通讯系统的计算机网络化、分析预报系统的应急决策指挥系统现代化建设取得明显进展。地震监测预报工作为保障全省经济建设顺利进行 ,维护社会稳定作出重要贡献。全局职工的住房得到明显改善 ,4年中在宁职工人均增加住房面积约 2 0m2 。人均总收入也较从前有大幅度提高。新建园艺绿地面积约 4 0 0 0m2 。工作体会主要是 ,领导班子同心协力是搞好工作的关键 ,广大职工的积极性是搞好工作的基础 ,各级领导坚持“两手抓”是搞好工作的根本 ,领导干部始终不懈地讲学习、讲政治、讲正气是搞好工作的前提     

人因失误机理及原因因素研究

在复杂社会技术系统中,人因失误已成为引发事故的最主要原因之一.给出了国内外学者对人因失误的定义.从个体和组织层次上分析了人因失误的机理,并基于此失误机理分析了人误原因因素,给出了个体和组织层次下的原因因素图.     

组织错误研究中存在问题的思考

组织错误研究是人误研究的新方向.在综述组织错误理论研究现状的基础上,论述了组织错误分析在理论和应用方面面临的4大问题,即:组织错误的定义及特征界定存在的问题,组织错误分类标准和方法存在的问题,组织错误的形成及演变机理以及组织错误评价、预测的技术方法,讨论了组织错误理论的发展趋势.     

Pushing and pulling: an assessment tool for occupational health and safety practitioners

A tool has been developed for supporting practitioners when assessing manual pushing and pulling operations based on an initiative by two global companies in the manufacturing industry. The aim of the tool is to support occupational health and safety practitioners in risk assessment and risk management of pushing and pulling operations in the manufacturing and logistics industries. The tool is based on a nine-multiplier equation that includes a wide range of factors affecting an operator’s health risk and capacity in pushing and pulling. These multipliers are based on psychophysical, physiological and biomechanical studies in combination with judgments from an expert group consisting of senior researchers and ergonomists. In order to consider usability, more than 50 occupational health and safety practitioners (e.g., ergonomists, managers, safety representatives and production personnel) participated in the development of the tool. An evaluation by 22 ergonomists supports that the push/pull tool is user friendly in general.