生产安全领域科研项目成果评价指标与评价方法研究*

为了更全面、更准确地开展生产安全领域科研项目成果的评价工作,以国家对科技成果评价的相关法规与标准为指引,结合生产安全领域科研项目成果的自身特点,基于德尔菲法从“学术与技术水平”、“成果效益”和“成果影响”3个方面构建相应的多层次评价指标体系;结合生产安全领域科研项目成果特点,提出综合采用同行评议法、多维指数评价法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法和科学计量法的评价方法选择思路,并以Yaahp作为评价方法的配套工具进行实际应用。研究结果可为生产安全领域相关科研项目成果的评价工作提供一套从指标体系到评价方法,从评价方法到评价工具的整体解决方案。     

Evaluation of ecological restoration success in mining‐degraded lands

This review article analyzes the importance of assessing the success of ecological restoration by using four indicators: assemblage of the plant and animal communities; enzyme activity; litter accumulation and decomposition; and the improvement of soil quality. These indicators can be used alone or in combinations. Even though the Society for Ecological Restoration International provided a primer containing nine attributes to use as standards for measuring ecological restoration, only three of these attributes could be easily applied due to their low costs and low time requirements. These three attributes include: diversity, vegetation structure, and ecological processes. This review article emphasizes that the criteria for the selection of the indicator species should be based upon: habitat types, abundance of species, ease of measuring, quantifying and interpreting the results, gradual enhancement with time and cost‐effectiveness, sensitivity, variability of response, size, residential status, and requirements of the area. Principal component analysis was applied to calculate the reclaimed mine soil quality index (RMSQI) and the forest soil quality index (FSQI) and the RMSQI value was compared with FSQI (optimum index value of reference ecosystem) to evaluate the restoration success. Available phosphorus, exchangeable magnesium, organic carbon, clay content, field moisture, available nitrogen, electrical conductivity, and pH are identified as the most influential parameters that regulate the health of reclaimed mine soil. Exchangeable calcium, magnesium, cation exchange capacity, sand, silt, clay content, field moisture, available phosphorus, and pH are the controlling properties for forest soil. The observed values of the above‐stated soil indicator properties were converted into a unitless score (0–1.00) and integrated into index calculations (RMSQI and FSQI). The contribution of each soil indicator properties on the calculated index was analyzed, which provides insight into the reason for the measured index. A higher RMSQI indicates better ecological restoration success. The calculated RMSQI was found to be 0.473 in the reclaimed dump, which is 6% lower than the reference ecosystem.     

磁絮凝预处理景观湖泊的补水试验研究

为了快速净化景观湖泊的补水,采用磁絮凝法对Ⅴ类甚至劣Ⅴ类河道水体进行预处理,设计正交试验,分析了絮凝剂(PAC)、助凝剂(PAM)以及磁铁粉的投加量对预处理效果的影响,并利用正交试验法和多指标综合评分法进一步优化磁絮凝预处理工艺参数,结果表明最佳工艺参数为:磁铁粉加入量100 mg/L,PAC投加量150 mg/L,PAM投加量2 mg/L。在此最佳工艺参数下,进行验证试验,COD去除率达到50.39%,TP去除率为96.65%,浊度去除率为91.59%,氨氮去除率为6.31%,除氨氮外,其他各指标基本均能达到地表水环境Ⅲ类水体标准,达到了预处理目的,为后续深度净化减轻负荷压力。     

基于PCA-FPP-BP神经网络的高层建筑火灾安全评价

为解决高层建筑构造复杂、人员密度大、火灾触发因素繁多而造成高层建筑火灾安全评价困难的问题,本文提出基于PCA-FPP-BP神经网络的高层建筑火灾安全评价模型。首先运用主成分分析(PCA)对构建的高层建筑火灾安全评价指标降维处理,筛选主要信息;接着基于三角模糊数构建模糊评判矩阵,利用模糊优先规划(FPP)求解指标的权重值,减少主观的影响;最后考虑到指标间关系错综复杂彼此交叉和反馈的特性,选择BP神经网络对高层建筑火灾安全进行评价。通过工程案例证明该评价模型的实用性以及可靠性。     

环境影响评价中公众参与绩效考核指标体系构建与实证研究

本文构建了公众参与绩效考核指标体系,通过专家咨询法确定各指标权重,然后以湘潭垃圾焚烧发电厂环境影响评价中公众参与为例,运用模糊综合评判法进行实证研究。研究结论对提高环境影响评价中公众参与力度,考核公众参与的绩效水平提供科学依据。     

Driver's obesity and road crash risks in the United States

Objective: We assessed obesity trends in U.S. drivers involved in fatal crashes since 1999 and distinguished whether crash risk factors were different between obese and nonobese drivers.

Methods: We included only drivers of passenger cars involved in fatal traffic crashes between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2012. Obesity was classified according to the World Health Organization guidelines and profiled between 1999 and 2012 using the adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) from log-binomial regression models. Differences in crash risks (e.g., driver's fatality, drunk driving, seat belt nonuse) between obese and nonobese drivers were estimated as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) using logistic regression models.

Results: A total of 753,024 U.S. drivers were involved in fatal crashes, for which obesity information was available for 534,887. About 56% (n = 299,078) were driving passenger cars. The prevalence of class I obesity increased from 10% in 1999 to 14% in 2012 (aPR = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42–1.58), class II obesity from 3 to 5% (aPR = 2.22, 95% CI, 2.05–3.01), and class III obesity from 1 to 2% (aPR = 2.65; 95% CI, 2.27–3.10). Compared to nonobese controls, obese drivers had significantly higher risks for fatality (1.10 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.47), seat belt nonuse (1.00 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.21), need for extrication (1.01 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.23), and ambulance transport time ≥30 min (1.01 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.28). Compared to nonobese controls, obese drivers were less likely to drink drive (0.41 ≤ aOR ≤ 0.72) or speed >65 mph (0.78 ≤ aOR ≤ 0.93).

Conclusion: The rising national prevalence of obesity extends to U.S. drivers involved in fatal crashes and indicates the need to improve seat belt use, vehicle design, and postcrash care for this vulnerable population.     

城市PM2.5健康损害评估研究

参考美国Ben MAP软件,提出城市PM_(2.5)健康损害评估的基本框架,并就评估方法和参数使用中的关键问题进行了论述,包括人群健康损害评估指标的确定、空间尺度和时间尺度的选择、健康终点的界定、人群年龄结构的划分、比较的基准的确定,以及"剂量-反应"关系参数和生命价值参数的选择等.本文收集和整理了2014年北京市空气质量监测点PM_(2.5)浓度监测数据及暴露人口、基期死亡率等数据,运用"向标准靠拢(Rollback to Standard)"的方法,估算北京市PM_(2.5)达到空气质量标准情景下的浓度值,以此作为比较的基准,使用美国Ben MAP数据库收录的"剂量-反应"关系参数,分别基于"工资-风险"法模型和人力资本法模型估计生命价值参数,代入本文城市PM_(2.5)健康损害评估的基本框架,计算2014年北京市PM_(2.5)对人群健康的损害.     

大连市夏季人体舒适度评价研究

以大连市1984年－2013年逐年7、8月的日平均温度、相对湿度及平均风速等气象数据为基础,基于模糊综合评价法,对大连市夏季人体舒适度现状进行分析与评价,得到结论如下：用模糊综合评判大连市气候舒适度最适合的评判标准为气温22℃、相对湿度70％和风速2 m／s;大连市总体气候舒适状况良好,夏季相对最舒适的时间段为第6旬（8月20日～8月31日）,最不舒适的时间段为第4旬（8月1日～8月10日）;由于大连市夏季经常伴有雷阵雨甚至暴雨天气以及湿度大等原因,使得炎热气温所造成的不舒适的天气状况常能得到改善,因此大连市夏季舒适程度所占比例较大。     

包头市企业环境行为信用评价指标体系研究

企业环境行为信用评价是一种符合国情的先进的环境管理手段,是对当前环境管理制度的重要补充和完善.为了强化政府对污染源的监管,提升环保部门的环境监管力度和水平,督促企业持续改进环境行为,文章对不同尺度的指标体系进行了分析对比,结合包头市实际情况,构建了包含污染防治、环境管理、社会影响和组织管理四部分共二十五项指标的包头市企业环境行为信用评价指标体系,以期对环境管理起到检查和促进作用、前瞻和导向功能.     

城市环境系统质量评价方法比较及实证研究

根据城市环境系统的内涵,从环境质量、资源利用、污染控制、生态建设四个方面构建了城市环境系统质量评价指标体系,并运用竞争性评价模型对十个沿海城市2012年的环境系统质量状况进行了综合评价和排序.为了判定竞争性评价模型的可靠性,采用传统的综合指数法进行验证性评价,结果表明:两种方法的评价结果具有较好的一致性,得分排在前6位的城市完全相同,其它城市的排序相差不大,因此,竞争性评价模型用于城市环境系统质量评价具有较好的可靠性.