Estimation of the maximal population frequency of “alien” biotypes taking into account a priori data

A method is described for calculating the probability that the percentage of alien biotypes is higher than a specified threshold (e.g., 5%) in a population in which a certain number of alien biotypes has been found preliminarily. The method is based on the Bayesian approach; it assumes that the researcher has preliminary (a priori) information on the frequency of these biotypes. This a priori information makes it possible to estimate the aforementioned probability more accurately than is possible with the use of the standard binomial estimation. The method is illustrated by the results of the estimation of cultivar purity in batches of stock and foundation seeds of spring barley with the use of protein markers.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 2, 2005, pp. 106–109.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Zhivotovsky, Pomortsev, Lyalina, Kalabushkin, Pukhalskii.     

Participation for understanding: an interactive method

INTRODUCTION: There are many available models that help evaluate the effectiveness of safety and health measures, but many are complex and require input from many departments within an organization. There is a need to develop a more user-friendly model. METHOD: A participative model was developed that involves face-to-face interviewers with workers, maintenance department, purchasing department and health and safety experts. They were asked about costs, efforts, benefits, and effects of gauging the effects of prevention efforts. RESULTS: Cost effectiveness analyses are essential in all cases and can include whatever the end-user requires, whether it is a small or lasting improvement. Having management participate helps validate the data. CONCLUSIONS: Organizations who collaborate with someone with at least some skill in cost-benefit evaluations will find that they will be able to establish policies and procedures from the data. The end result is a calculation that is understood by all involved.     

The potential-method--an economic evaluation tool

INTRODUCTION: Measuring the effect of safety and health on production is a difficult value to gauge. METHOD: This article introduces the Potential, which is an instrument for economic analysis that incorporates different changes in conditions. RESULTS: While there are a number of problems associated with methods to determine these calculations, this method is a good indicator of the effects of safety and health and produces more than 300 variables with much less input. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Organizations can use this method effectively to determine how safety and health measure can improve their bottom line. A positive business case is highlighted.     

区域生态环境评价的灰色关联投影模型

区域生态环境评价是实现全面环境管理，协调区域经济发展与生态环境保护．实现区域可持续发展的重要手段。由于评价所涉及的地域复杂性和因素多样性，许多评价方法和体系都处于不断探索和发展之中。区域生态环境系统是一个灰色系统，包括了自然、经济和社会等方面具有信息不确知性和不完全性的因素。基于灰色系统理论和矢量投影原理，建立了区域生态环境评价的灰色关联投影模型。该模型将评价样本及各级质量标准视为矢量．分别向同一矢量(理想样本)进行投影。根据投影值的大小，确定样本所属的生态环境质量级别及样本间的优劣排序。以巢湖流域为个案，在建立生态环境评价指标体系和标准的基础上，运用所建模型对其生态环境质量现状进行了评价，结果与实际情况相吻合。即巢湖流域总体以及分区合肥市、六安市的生态环境质量为4级，分区巢湖市为5级。研究表明，灰色关联投影模型对于多指标的区域生态环境质量评价是科学的、有效的，具有一定的推广和实用价值。     

基于单体对象的城市区域火灾风险评价方法研究

从分析城市区域内单体对象自身的致灾因素及其制约灭火抢险救援力量发挥的环节入手,基于指数法和层次分析法建立了单体对象火灾风险评价指标体系.以单体对象火灾风险向量为基础,基于线性加权模型构建了一种新的区域火灾风险评价计算模型,并以树形结构表征了区域火灾风险评价结构.试点地区实例表明,该方法能够有效地评价城市区域火灾风险.     

南充市城市生态系统健康评价

城市生态系统是一个综合性、复杂性的大系统,涉及到城市自然环境、社会经济、人群健康状况、资源状况、环境状况和城市基础设施等各个方面,健康的城市生态系统是人类所向往的目标.从生态系统健康的内涵出发,依据城市生态系统的特殊性,建立了城市生态系统健康评价指标体系;运用AHP法确定了城市生态系统健康评价各指标要素之间的权重;采用模糊数学法的原理建立城市生态系统健康评价模型.将该模型方法应用于南充市城市生态系统健康评价,通过评价得出:南充城市生态系统健康状况为"亚健康"状态,其隶属度为0.329.     

Should 'Cyrus the Centipede' take a hike? Effects of exposure to a pedestrian safety program on children's safety knowledge and self-reported behaviors

INTRODUCTION: We report the first evaluation of the popular "Cyrus the Centipede" child pedestrian safety program. METHOD: A pre-test/post-test control versus experimental condition design was used to assess Cyrus' impact on third graders' pedestrian safety knowledge, and self-reported pedestrian behaviors. RESULTS: Although some beneficial effects were observed, the program was not reliably effective. In particular, the impact of exposure to Cyrus was strongly influenced by the individual teacher who delivered it, likely due to the highly unstructured nature of the curriculum. SUMMARY: We suggest that: (a) the effectiveness and reliability of such programs be demonstrated before they are widely adopted; and (b) programs that focus on training children in actual or simulated traffic environments may be more effective than those that primarily focus on teaching safety facts and rules.     

模糊综合评价法在道路运输企业安全评价中的应用

我国道路运输企业交通安全形势比较严峻,推行道路运输企业安全综合评价是降低道路运输企业交通事故的有效途径之一.本文运用Delphi法和AHP法建立了道路运输企业安全层次分析模型,构建了安全综合评价指标体系.选用基于"差动"原理的赋权法--G1法计算各指标的权重,应用模糊综合评价法对其进行安全综合评价.采用平均加权法对评价因素的各项指标进行量化处理,从而得到道路运输企业安全的综合评价结果.最后,对陕西省一家道路运输企业进行了实际验证,比较真实地反映了此企业的安全状况.     

基于SPA模型的煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价

根据危险源理论和三类危险源的观点,采用集对分析(SPA)方法,进行了安全一事故集对的同异反分析,指出应采取措施控制不确定项,尤其要控制其中的第二类、第三类危险源才能使系统趋于安全状态;同时建立了煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价模型,通过联系度的计算得出煤矿瓦斯的安全等级.研究表明,将集对分析方法应用于某煤矿瓦斯危险源风险评价,计算简单,结果较为精确、可靠,为不确定系统的评价提供了一条新思路.     

应急预案编制基本操作程序及方法

应急预案编制涉及行业领域专业技术、应急管理知识、工作进度和质量管控等多方面内容,是一项专业性、系统性很强的工作。为向公众普及有关工作程序和方法,笔者结合实际工作经验提炼出应急预案编制工作的核心思想,引入项目管理的思路,提出一种面向对象、以实践应用为导向的工作模式。本文有详细的步骤展示,提供相应的文本样式,并对常见工作方法、技巧和失误进行归纳分析。研究结果提供一种可行的思路参考,对于应急预案编制设计、评审等人员具有一定参考和科普传播价值。