台州市流域水环境承载力研究

采用指标体系评价法研究台州市椒江水系和金清河网水环境承载力,选取了水资源开发利用水平、经济社会发展水平、环境纳污水平、环境保护与治理水平四大类17个评价指标,通过层次分析法对椒江水系、金清河网两大流域水环境承载力现状进行评价,研究结果表明两大流域现状水环境承载力综合指数分别为0.7644和0.5808,属于山溪型流域的椒江水系水环境承载力能力远大于平原河网型的金清河网.并进一步设置了四种中远期情景方案,预测不同发展模式下水环境承载力变化情况,结果表明四种方案对提高流域水环境承载力贡献大小关系为:方案2>方案3>方案4>方案1,提高环保投入、加强环境治理水平的方案对流域水环境承载力提升最有利.     

以GDP-PM2.5达标为约束的东莞大气环境容量及承载力研究

东莞市计划到2017年PM_(2.5)年均浓度达到国家二级标准(35μg·m~(-3)),GDP年均增长率至少不低于7%.面对复合型为特征的PM_(2.5)大气污染,传统的环境容量和承载力计算方法具有局限性.因此,本文基于经济、气象、能源、环境等关键信息,利用系统动力学(SD)建立了GDPPM_(2.5)宏观动态统计模型.考虑到PM_(2.5)年均浓度等统计值本身就是污染物不断生成又不断扩散、沉降达到动态平衡的综合结果.因此,SD模型可不从理化角度去模拟复杂的大气传输和扩散过程,而是通过引入各污染物的比例系数μ,构建转化率η,建立GDP、PM_(2.5)年均浓度、五大污染物(VOCs、SO2、NOx、NH3、一次PM_(2.5))排放量等变量之间的逻辑联系,为分析和预测工作奠定基础.同时,本文梳理了大气环境压力、承载力和容量的定义,强调了三者之间的相互作用、密不可分的动态关系,建设性地提出了度量承载力的11项指标(5个显性、6个隐性).最后,利用模型模拟预测了"综合治理"模式下2012—2020年间以GDP-PM_(2.5)达标为约束的五大污染物的大气环境压力、容量和承载力.结果表明,预计PM_(2.5)浓度达标约在2017年上半年,对应的SO_2、NO_x、VOCs、NH_3、一次PM_(2.5)容量分别为84987、138849、100875、7751、17402 t;承载力隐性部分各项阈值分别为GDP总量7074亿元、新增绿色GDP 737亿元、煤炭2120万t(以标煤计)、石油552万t(以标煤计)、天然气663万t(以标煤计)、新能源630万t(以标煤计);承载力显性部分各阈值(相对于2012年5年累积减排量)分别为SO264271 t、NOx128831 t、VOCs 108337 t、NH34070 t、一次PM_(2.5)35863 t.本研究为东莞市大气减排提供了具体目标和参考数值.     

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.     

A comparison of cat‐related risk perceptions and tolerance for outdoor cats in Florida and Hawaii

Risk perceptions and attitudes toward animals often explain tolerance for wildlife and management preferences. However, little is understood about how these relationships vary across different geographic regions and stakeholder groups. To address this gap in knowledge, we compared differences in acceptance capacity, risk perceptions, perceived enjoyment from outdoor cats, and experiences with outdoor cats among 3 groups (general public, conservation community, and animal‐welfare community) in Hawaii and Florida, two states with large conservation challenges. We combined independently collected data from Florida and Hawaii, to determine how perception of the risks presented by outdoor cats, group membership, and state of residence influenced people's tolerance for outdoor cats. Florida respondents were significantly more tolerant of outdoor cats and less concerned about cat‐related risks than Hawaii respondents (p < 0.05). In both states, animal‐welfare group members reported greater enjoyment seeing cats and perceived a smaller increase in the cat population and lower levels of risk than other groups (p < 0.05). All groups exhibited similar relationships between acceptance capacity and enjoyment and the perceived increase in the cat population. Our results suggest public tolerance for cats varied due to the influence of local or geographical concerns, but that strongly held beliefs, risk perceptions, and feelings about cats explained more of the variance in stakeholder tolerance.     

Contributions of paraecologists and parataxonomists to research,conservation, and social development

Citizen science has been gaining momentum in the United States and Europe, where citizens are literate and often interested in science. However, in developing countries, which have a dire need for environmental data, such programs are slow to emerge, despite the large and untapped human resources in close proximity to areas of high biodiversity and poorly known floras and faunas. Thus, we propose that the parataxonomist and paraecologist approach, which originates from citizen‐based science, is well suited to rural areas in developing countries. Being a paraecologist or a parataxonomist is a vocation and entails full‐time employment underpinned by extensive training, whereas citizen science involves the temporary engagement of volunteers. Both approaches have their merits depending on the context and objectives of the research. We examined 4 ongoing paraecologist or parataxonomist programs in Costa Rica, India, Papua New Guinea, and southern Africa and compared their origins, long‐term objectives, implementation strategies, activities, key challenges, achievements, and implications for resident communities. The programs supported ongoing research on biodiversity assessment, monitoring, and management, and participants engaged in non‐academic capacity development in these fields. The programs in Southern Africa related to specific projects, whereas the programs in Costa Rica, India, and Papua New Guinea were designed for the long term, provided sufficient funding was available. The main focus of the paraecologists’ and parataxonomists’ activities ranged from collection and processing of specimens (Costa Rica and Papua New Guinea) or of socioeconomic and natural science data (India and Southern Africa) to communication between scientists and residents (India and Southern Africa). As members of both the local land user and research communities, paraecologists and parataxonomists can greatly improve the flow of biodiversity information to all users, from local stakeholders to international academia.     

Exposure,sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change: empirical research in China

The present research established a preliminary indicator assessment system satisfying Chinese characters for exposure, sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change. The 31 province-level administrative regions in mainland China were considered in our research. We developed three dimensions of indices related to climate change, including primary, secondary, and tertiary indicators. We chose all variables and indicators based on a literature review and used principal component analysis and the varimax method to develop a weighted assessment index system. Districts in central China scored higher on the overall exposure index than other sample districts, western China generally exhibited higher sensitivity, and eastern China exhibited comparatively higher social adaptive capacity than the other regions. This study also provides perspective for adaptation policies that all regions in China could adopt to determine development direction decision-making based on their specific conditions and diversified comparative advantages to enhance adaptive capacity in response to climate change.     

Feasible conversion of solid waste bauxite tailings into highly crystalline 4A zeolite with valuable application

Bauxite tailings are a major type of solid wastes generated in the flotation process. The waste by-products caused significant environmental impact. To lessen this hazardous effect from poisonous mine tailings, a feasible and cost-effective solution was conceived and implemented. Our approach focused on reutilization of the bauxite tailings by converting it to 4A zeolite for reuse in diverse applications. Three steps were involved in the bauxite conversion: wet-chemistry, alkali fusion, and crystallization to remove impurities and to prepare porous 4A zeolite. It was found that the cubic 4A zeolite was single phase, in high purity, with high crystallinity and well-defined structure. Importantly, the 4A zeolite displayed maximum calcium ion exchange capacity averaged at 296 mg CaCO₃/g, comparable to commercially-available zeolite (310 mg CaCO₃/g) exchange capacity. Base on the optimal synthesis condition, the reaction yield of zeolite 4A from bauxite tailings achieved to about 38.43%, hence, this study will provide a new paradigm for remediation of bauxite tailings, further mitigating the environmental and health care concerns, particularly in the mainland of PR China.     

生态足迹与可持续发展初步分析——以北京市、沈阳市、哈尔滨市为例

生态足迹从具体的生物量角度研究自然资本消耗的空间，为核算地区资本利用状况提供框架，进而可判断区域可持续发展状态。文章在简要介绍生态足迹的概念与计算模型基础上，定量研究了北京市、沈阳市、哈尔滨市等三城市2003年－2006年4年间的生态足迹和生态承载力的变化规律和特征。根据计算进行分析，结果表明人类负荷超过其生态容量，生态承载均不能满足生态足迹的需求，社会经济处于一种不同程度不可持续的发展状态。为使城市生态建设可持续的发展提出生态恢复建议及措施。     

基于农业生态地带模型的中国粮食产能动态评估

随着人口增加和人们生活水平的不断提高,我国粮食消费需求将继续呈刚性增长,使得粮食品种和区域结构性矛盾加剧,而粮食产能的动态评估能够让我们加深认识我国粮食供需平衡,对制定适宜于我国经济社会发展同时保障粮食安全的粮食可持续发展战略具有重要意义.论文选取农田生产力作为我国粮食产能的指标,通过改进农业生态地带(AEZ)模型,动态嵌入不同县域水平的管理和投入水平的限制性因子,集成县级截面数据估计投入系数权重,并基于此估算了全国2000-2010年间农田生产力水平.研究发现,2000年以来,我国农田生产力虽年际间存在波动,但总体呈现增长的态势,且区域差异性显著.农田生产力水平存在从沿海到内陆、从南向北及从东向西的递减的梯度,而局部地区农田生产力变化明显,表现出明显的东西分异规律,其次是南北分异规律.而对各个地区农田生产力平均值统计发现,东部沿海地区与南部省份的农田生产力要高于内陆省份,西部地区农田生产力普遍低于东部和中部地区.2000、2005、2010年全国分县统计的粮食产量数据与动态估算结果进行精度验证,其相关系数分别达到0.82、0.76和0.89,实际产量为估算结果的69.4％、73.4％、67.2％,较好的反映了我国农田生产力的基本状况.最后,基于我国农田生产力时空变化规律和局部差异性特征,以及我国经济区水平上的中国农田生产力的变化规律,从耕地数量保障、农业管理和投入水平提高以及适宜的农业区划方面,提出适宜于我国自然环境状况和社会经济发展的农田生产力保障策略,对保障我国的农田生产力的稳定增长方面的规划决策与政策制定具有参考价值.     

Measuring impacts on species with models and metrics of varying ecological and computational complexity

Approaches to assess the impacts of landscape disturbance scenarios on species range from metrics based on patterns of occurrence or habitat to comprehensive models that explicitly include ecological processes. The choice of metrics and models affects how impacts are interpreted and conservation decisions. We explored the impacts of 3 realistic disturbance scenarios on 4 species with different ecological and taxonomic traits. We used progressively more complex models and metrics to evaluate relative impact and rank of scenarios on the species. Models ranged from species distribution models that relied on implicit assumptions about environmental factors and species presence to highly parameterized spatially explicit population models that explicitly included ecological processes and stochasticity. Metrics performed consistently in ranking different scenarios in order of severity primarily when variation in impact was driven by habitat amount. However, they differed in rank for cases where dispersal dynamics were critical in influencing metapopulation persistence. Impacts of scenarios on species with low dispersal ability were better characterized using models that explicitly captured these processes. Metapopulation capacity provided rank orders that most consistently correlated with those from highly parameterized and data-rich models and incorporated information about dispersal with little additional computational and data cost. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering species’ ecology, spatial configuration of habitat, and disturbance when choosing indicators of species persistence. We suggest using hybrid approaches that are a mixture of simple and complex models to improve multispecies assessments.