中部地区碳排放时空演变及其影响因素分析

为实现碳达峰、碳中和目标,研究我国中部地区的碳排放时空演变及其影响因素有着重要的意义.使用2012—2019年NPP-VIIRS夜光遥感数据计算中部地区的碳排放量,结合地理探测器对碳排放时空变化及其影响因子进行分析.分析结果显示：①山西省碳排放量居中部地区首位,河南省次之,安徽省碳排放量位居第三,后为湖北省和湖南省,江西省碳排放最低;②2012—2019年在中部地区碳排放量聚集程度逐年减弱,高高聚集面积从210742.9 km²减少到153999.3 km²,低低聚集面积由148249.2 km²减少到103804.0 km²;③通过地理探测器分析的结果得到：对中部地区各省份碳排放影响因子解释力较大的为经济要素：地区生产总值和第二生产总值;中部地区各省份碳排放因子解释力较高的双因子交互多为经济要素.研究显示,中部地区各个省份碳排放分布及影响因素存在一定的差异,在制定碳达峰、碳中和行动方案时应考虑到不同地区碳排放的差异,本研究为中部地区制定节能减排政策提供数据支撑.     

中国省际农业碳排放测算及低碳化水平评价——基于衍生指标与TOPSIS法的运用

农业碳排放量测算及低碳化水平评价,是实现农业绿色发展和制定碳减排计划的重要依据。通过测算2006—2016年中国30个省份的农业碳排放量,并以测算结果为基础,从农业用地、禽畜养殖和农业能源三个方面构造农业碳排放衍生指标,采用基于动态自然权重的TOPSIS法对各省农业低碳化水平进行评价。结果表明：中国农业碳排放总量呈先降后升的“V型”变化,由2006年的91096万t下降至2008年的83521万t,此后稳步增加至2016年的92192万t。农业非能源碳排放量占农业碳排放总量的84%以上,土壤管理是农业非能源碳排放的第一来源。省际农业碳排放衍生指标异质性较强,农业低碳化水平整体不高。研究结果可为农业和环境部门开展低碳农业评价工作提供借鉴。     

中国交通碳排放及影响因素时空异质性

选取30个省级行政单位作为空间单元,采用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）方法对交通碳排放时空分布格局进行研究,同时考虑空间单元的差异性,构建地理加权回归（GWR）模型分析交通碳排放影响因素的时空异质性.研究发现：2000~2015年交通碳排放量呈现显著的空间聚类特征,聚类趋势逐年加强.双变量空间自相关指数为0.165~0.274,显著性水平介于0.016~0.045,表明交通碳排放同机动车保有量、GDP、货运周转量及客运周转量之间存在显著的空间正相关关系.GWR模型的R²在0.783~0.865之间,而OLS模型的R²在0.675~0.844之间,且GWR模型的AICc值均低于OLS模型的,说明GWR模型的拟合结果明显优于OLS模型,可以更好地解释交通碳排放的影响机制.GWR的回归结果表明碳排放的影响因素存在明显的时空异质性特征,其中GDP是主要的推动因素,部分地区回归系数高达0.91,2000年影响程度由东向西递减,而2005、2010和2015年由北向南递减.客运周转量起到关键的抑制作用,影响程度由东北向西南递减.因此建议应当充分考虑碳排放影响因素的时空异质性特征,制定差异化的碳减排政策.     

A2/O+MBR工艺运行效果与碳排放特征研究

对北京市通州区H再生水厂采用的A²/O+MBR工艺运行效果与不同环节碳排放特征进行研究.结果表明：2018年该再生水厂对BOD₅,COD_cr,NH₄⁺-N,TN和TP的平均去除率分别为97.3%,94.1%,98.6%,77.0%,96.2%;全厂碳排放总量和吨水碳排放量呈春夏季节逐渐降低,秋冬季节缓慢升高的特征,全厂综合吨水碳排放量约为2.26kgCO₂e/t.碳排放总量中能耗碳排放量占主要地位,CH₄,N₂O和物耗碳排放量占比较小;统计分析显示CH₄,能耗和物耗吨水碳排放量与BOD₅,TN进水浓度及BOD₅去除率显著相关;N₂O吨水碳排放量与TN与BOD₅进水浓度显著相关;直接,间接吨水碳排放量与水量无显著相关性.     

北京市典型城区餐饮业VOCs和PM2.5排放量估算

以北京市餐饮企业分布密度最大的西城区为案例区,通过对研究区域内餐饮企业进行实地污染物检测及排放活动水平调查,计算得到基于就餐人数、就餐时间、烹饪油用量和灶头数4种核算基准的餐饮业VOCs和PM_2.5排放因子,并利用排放因子法分别估算该区域在餐饮废气净化设备升级改造前后餐饮企业VOCs和PM_2.5年排放量.结果表明：本研究区域餐饮业废气净化设备升级改造前VOCs排放量范围为319.03~506.38t/a,改造后为92.14~109.89t/a;改造前PM_2.5排放量范围为166.55~211.09t/a,改造后为30.22~36.05t/a,排放量明显减少.餐饮业废气净化设备改造后VOCs和PM_2.5减排率分别为71%~82%和80%~86%,餐饮业废气净化设备升级改造减排效果良好.计算得到以街道为单元的餐饮源VOCs和PM_2.5排放强度范围分别为1.45~4.32t/km²和0.47~1.42t/km².通过PM_2.5实测浓度（小时值）数据分析,餐饮业废气净化设备升级改造前、后PM_2.5浓度平均减少了28.9%,最接近于用油量为核算基准的排放因子降低比例.     

Comprehensive and high-resolution emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants for the northernmost cities agglomeration of Harbin-Changchun, China: Implications for local atmospheric environment management

Using a bottom-up estimation method, a comprehensive, high-resolution emission inventory of gaseous and particulate atmospheric pollutants for multiple anthropogenic sectors with typical local sources has been developed for the Harbin-Changchun city agglomeration (HCA). The annual emissions for CO, NOx, SO₂, NH₃, VOC_S, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC and OC during 2017 in the HCA were estimated to be 5.82 Tg, 0.70 Tg, 0.34 Tg, 0.75 Tg, 0.81Tg, 0.67 Tg, 1.59 Tg, 0.12 Tg and 0.26 Tg, respectively. For PM₁₀ and SO₂, the emissions from industry processes were the dominant contributors representing 54.7% and 49.5%, respectively, of the total emissions, while 95.3% and 44.5% of the total NH₃ and NOx emissions, respectively, were from or associated with agricultural activities and transportation. Spatiotemporal distributions showed that most emissions (except NH₃) occurred in November to March and were concentrated in the central cities of Changchun and Harbin and the surrounding cities. Open burning of straw made an important contribution to PM_2.5 in the central regions of the northeastern plain during autumn and spring, while domestic coal combustion for heating purposes was significant with respect to SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions during autumn and winter. Furthermore, based on Principal Component Analysis and Multivariable Linear Regression model, air temperature, relative humidity, electricity and energy consumption, and the urban and rural population were optimized to be representative indicators for rapidly assessing the magnitude of regional atmospheric pollutants in the HCA. Such indicators and equations were demonstrated to be useful for local atmospheric environment management.     

Primary and secondary organic aerosol in an urban/industrial site: Sources, health implications and the role of plastic enriched waste burning

PM10 samples were collected from an urban/industrial site nearby Athens, where uncontrolled burning activities occur. PAHs, monocarboxylic, dicarboxylic, hydroxycarboxylic and aromatic acids, tracers from BVOC oxidation, biomass burning tracers and bisphenol A were determined. PAH, monocarboxylic acids, biomass burning tracers and bisphenol A were increased during autumn/winter, while BSOA tracers, dicarboxylic- and hydroxycarboxylic acids during summer. Regarding aromatic acids, different sources and formation mechanisms were indicated as benzoic, phthalic and trimellitic acids were peaked during summer whereas p-toluic, isophthalic and terephthalic were more abundant during autumn/winter. The Benzo[a]pyrene-equivalent carcinogenic power, carcinogenic and mutagenic activities were calculated showing significant (p < 0.05) increases during the colder months. Palmitic, succinic and malic acids were the most abundant monocarboxylic, dicarboxylic and hydrocarboxylic acids during the entire sampling period. Isoprene oxidation was the most significant contributor to BSOA as the isoprene-SOA compounds were two times more abundant than the pinene-SOA (13.4 ± 12.3 and 6.1 ± 2.9 ng/m³, respectively). Ozone has significant impact on the formation of many studied compounds showing significant correlations with: isoprene-SOA (r = 0.77), hydrocarboxylic acids (r = 0.69), pinene-SOA (r = 0.63),dicarboxylic acids (r = 0.58), and the sum of phthalic, benzoic and trimellitic acids (r = 0.44). PCA demonstrated five factors that could explain sources including plastic enriched waste burning (30.8%), oxidation of unsaturated fatty acids (23.0%), vehicle missions and cooking (9.2%), biomass burning (7.7%) and oxidation of VOCs (5.8%). The results highlight the significant contribution of plastic waste uncontrolled burning to the overall air quality degradation.     

基于LCA的钢铁联合企业CO_2排放影响因素分析

钢铁企业是CO2排放大户,减少吨钢CO2排放是钢铁企业节约能源、保护环境、走可持续发展道路的必然要求.本研究旨在对钢铁企业产品生命周期清单研究的基础上,识别钢铁企业CO2排放的主要影响因素,提出针对性的减排建议.以某钢铁联合企业的产品生命周期清单模型为平台,同时利用TornadoChart工具,计算得到对企业CO2排放影响较大的因素,然后提出了相应的减排措施.结果表明,转炉流程对于钢铁企业的影响要大于电炉流程;对该企业CO2排放有重大影响和相关影响的因素有:高炉煤气(BFG)的CO2排放系数、连铸坯的钢水单耗、热轧的板坯单耗、转炉的铁水比.减少钢铁联合企业CO2排放的有效措施是采取捕集BFG中的CO2、降低转炉的铁水比、加强副产煤气的回收以及优化企业的产品生产结构.     

The regional economic impact of reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Western Australia

This study analyses the general-equilibrium impacts of an international climate change response policy on the economy of Western Australia (WA), one of the most mining-based and energy-intensive states of Australia. It finds that emissions would fall by up to 11% from the base level in WA. However, such environmental benefits emanate at some costs to the state economy; in terms of foregone gross state product, the costs are up to 3% of the base level. Indeed, the actual costs and benefits depend on the precise design of the climate change response policy as well as on the other policies within which it operates. For example, when emission quota permits are sold to industries and no tradeable carbon credits (i.e. credits for the carbon sequestrated in Kyoto forests) are granted, emissions decline by about 8% and GSP falls by about 3% of the base levels. If carbon credits are tradeable, however, the environmental benefits could be increased and the GSP cost could be reduced substantially. Also, the reduced economic activity caused by emission abatement results in a modest fall in net government revenue, despite the additional revenue from permit sales in some cases. Accordingly, government’s fiscal package surrounding the emission permits would influence the emission abatement impacts on the economy. With regard to the effects on the structure of the state economy, the oil and gas industry suffers only a slight contraction but the energy-supplying sector as a whole contracts substantially. It is therefore not surprising that the impacts on the WA economy of curbing emissions by energy and transport industries alone are quite significant when compared to those resulted from all industries’ compliance with the abatement scheme. It needs to be noted that the model projections analysed in the paper are based on simplifying assumptions and tentative scenarios, and hence should be viewed with caution and not be understood as unconditional forecasts.     

区域高时空分辨率VOC天然源排放清单的建立

将中尺度气象模式MM5应用于估算VOC天然源排放的研究,建立了高时空分辨率VOC天然源排放清单的估算方法.根据方法需要,确定了我国部分树木排放异戊二烯和萜烯的标准排放因子,各植被类型排放各种VOC的标准排放因子,以及各植被类型季节平均的叶生物量密度.应用该方法估算了华南地区满足区域空气质量数值模拟要求的高时空分辨率VOC天然源排放清单.结果表明,华南地区夏季典型日的VOC天然源排放总量约1.12×10⁴t,VOC排放速率具有明显的时空分布,其中地理分布取决于植被类型及其分布,日变化规律则依赖于太阳辐射和温度的高低.并讨论了VOC天然源排放估算过程中误差的来源