NEWS

Abstract

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence (tce) and CO₂ emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tce that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO₂ emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors.     

碳中和实践进展、实现路径与展望

概述了国内外在碳中和实践与实现路径方面的研究进展,包括能源路径、技术路径、社会路径和政策经济路径。在此基础上,提出了应用实证数据和模型模拟开展碳中和定量评估、通过不同国家碳中和目标的比较和分析来评估全球碳中和能力和成本、加强不同碳中和路径与产业之间的相关性及多路径共同效应研究等建议。     

Does corporate social performance reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the macro level?

Corporate social performance (CSP) is assumed to have a positive impact on macroeconomic sustainability, but empirical evidence of this impact is absent in the literature. The objective of this paper is to investigate the macro impacts of CSP. We first establish a conceptual framework on the relationship between CSP at the individual business level and sustainability at the macro level. Next, we empirically test the relationship between (averaged) CSP scores and greenhouse gas emissions at the macro level for 22 countries during 2004–2011. We use Granger causality tests to check for Granger causality. The estimation results show that CSP reduces greenhouse gas emissions, but the long-term effect is rather modest.     

Direct and indirect land-use change as prospective climate change indicators for peri-urban development transitions

With urban areas responsible for a significant share of total anthropogenic emissions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to land-use change (LUC) induced by peri-urban (PU) development have the potential to be considerable. Despite this, there is little research into the transition from PU cropland to housing in terms of contribution to global warming. This paper presents a cross-sectoral integrative method for prospective climate change evaluation of PU LUC. Specifically, direct LUC (dLUC) GHG emissions from converting PU cropland to greenfield housing were examined. Additionally, GHG emissions due to displaced crop production inducing indirect LUC (iLUC) elsewhere were assessed. GHG impacts of dLUC and iLUC were each determined to be approximately 8 per cent of total GHG emissions due to a greenfield housing development displacing PU cropland. This magnitude of dLUC and iLUC emissions suggests that both have importance in future land-use decision making with respect to PU environments.     

Testing and performance analysis of a hollow fiber-based core for evaporative cooling and liquid desiccant dehumidification

In this study, an innovative heat and mass transfer core is proposed to provide thermal comfort and humidity control using a hollow fiber contactor with multiple bundles of micro-porous hollow fibers. The hollow fiber-based core utilizes 12 bundles aligned vertically, each with 1,000 packed polypropylene hollow fibers. The proposed core was developed and tested under various operating and ambient conditions as a cooling core for a compact evaporative cooling unit and a dehumidification core for a liquid desiccant dehumidification unit. As a cooling core, the fiber-based evaporative cooler provides a maximum cooling capacity of 502 W with a wet bulb effectiveness of 85%. As a dehumidification core and employing potassium formate as a liquid desiccant, the dehumidifier is capable of reducing the air relative humidity by 17% with an overall dehumidification capacity of 733 W and humidity effectiveness of 47%. Being cheap and simple to design with their attractive heat and mass transfer characteristics and the corresponding large surface area-to-volume ratio, hollow fiber membrane contactors provide a promising alternative for cooling and dehumidification applications.     

钢铁企业无组织排放特征污染物的监测分析

东部老工业区是济南市大气污染重点防控区域。工业区大型企业的无组织排放废气对区域及周边大气环境质量产生的影响,一直没有引起人们的足够重视,因对其排放量大小和污染物种类不清楚,难以进行监管。本文以济南东部老工业区一家大型钢铁企业为例,选取五项有代表性的特征污染物(苯、甲苯、二甲苯、非甲烷总烃和氨)进行布点监测,在不同气象条件下,分析特征污染物的浓度变化,了解钢铁企业无组织排放特征。经对监测数据的分析得出:与上风向相比,下风向各污染物监测的小时浓度和日均浓度均有不同程度的增加,表明该厂区污染源对周边环境空气质量有一定影响。最后,提出防范或改进措施,如应加严相应的无组织排放标准,增加大气在线监测点位及监测项目,建议企业加强对生产工艺环节无组织排放废气的收集和处理。     

The indecisive role of the market in China’s SO2 and COD emissions trading

Governmental intervention is essential to combat environmental pollution, a phenomenon classically explained as market failure, while market-based environmental policy instruments have provided cost-effective alternatives. By examining five pilot air pollution (sulfur dioxide) and water pollution (chemical oxygen demand) trading schemes in China through a market-based theoretical framework and extensive empirical analysis, this research analyzes where a state-market boundary is defined, whether the market is performing effectively, and, critically, what leads to underperformance. Constrained by policy design, policy conflicts, and excessive state intervention, the market has not played an effective and ‘decisive’ role, resulting in low market thickness for participants and transactions, market congestion on prices, and inadequate market safety for genuine emissions trading. Better emissions trading for conventional pollutants and CO₂ requires better market-oriented rules, improved policy coordination, and stronger implementation while minimizing state intervention.     

区域间供给驱动的碳排放溢出与反馈效应

减缓区域间的碳排放溢出-反馈效应对中国协调区域发展和实现绿色发展意义重大。本文基于供给多区域投入产出模型建立了供给视角下三区域碳排放溢出-反馈效应的分析方法,继而测算了2002-2010年中国东、中、西部之间的碳排放溢出-反馈乘数和实际效应。研究发现,在整个研究时期内东、中部对西部以及东、中部之间的溢出乘数有所下降,但西部对东、中部的溢出乘数有所上升。同时,三大地区的反馈乘数则都有所上升。不过,由于各个地区的经济总量都显著上升,因而各区域各种实际的碳排放效应在整个研究时期内都显著上升。东部对中、西部地区的溢出乘数明显小于中、西部对东部地区的溢出乘数,且东部地区的反馈乘数也几乎一直小于中部和西部。不过,由于东部地区的经济总量远远大于中、西部,因而东部地区各种实际的碳排放效应在整个研究时期内都显著大于中、西部地区相应的实际碳排放效应。三大地区碳排放溢出及反馈乘数效应较大的部门很相似,它们都以采掘业及相关下游重工业为主,如煤炭开采和洗选业。碳排放溢出及反馈乘数效应较小的部门则主要包括通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业、建筑业以及服务业。为减缓区域间供给驱动的碳排放溢出-反馈效应,地区间应当加强在碳减排领域的合作,以此提升区域间供应链的碳排放效率;促进节能减排技术的推广应用以提高各部门特别是碳排放密集型产业的能源利用效率;同时应大力发展清洁型战略新兴产业并严格控制碳密集型产业的扩张,从而优化产业结构。     

中国省域碳排放总量控制目标分解研究

为确保实现中国CO2排放在2030年左右达到峰值的承诺,在"十三五"期间探索开展省级层面的碳排放总量控制目标分解是关键措施。基于地区差异构建碳排放总量控制目标分解模型,综合考虑公平、效率和可行三类因素,本研究以浙江省为例,将2013-2020年碳排放总量控制目标分解到各个地市。研究结果表明,浙江省11个地市的碳排放总量控制目标在四类不同情景下基本保持一致。不同权重情景下的结果均有效反映出各地市在经济发展、人民生活和技术水平等方面的差异,表明通过该模型分解碳排放总量控制目标基本合理可行。偏重公平的方案在协调区域经济发展差异方面具有较大优势,该方案一定程度上可倒逼传统经济发展模式向低碳经济转型;偏重效率的方案可最大效率地利用碳排放空间,但需给予足够的资金和技术支持;"十三五"期间我国建成统一的碳交易市场后,偏重可行的分配方案可通过碳交易市场手段实现各地市碳减排和经济发展的双赢。此外,充分发挥战略预留碳排放指标的作用可有效保证各省实现碳排放总量控制目标。尽管在选择分配指标项和分解战略预留目标时仍然存有不确定性,但可随着省级应对气候变化统计体系的建立与完善,以及各省"国民经济和社会发展十三五规划"的出台而逐步减小。本研究创新性地为中国经济发达省份开展碳排放总量控制目标的地市分解工作提供兼顾公平、效率和可行的方案。     

双赢目标约束下中国能源结构调整测算

中国碳排放的主要来源是能源消费,能源消费又是经济增长的重要驱动因素,因而如何进行能源结构调整成为我国能否如期实现经济增长和碳减排双赢目标的关键。考虑技术进步的动态条件,基于1991-2013年中国的数据,采用超越对数生产函数对我国GDP增长中不同能源要素的贡献率进行了分解,并在2020年实现双赢目标的约束下,对不同能源2014-2020年期间的增长率在技术进步动态条件下进行了估算,分析了实现双赢目标的路径条件。研究结果显示:1综合要素、煤炭、石油、天然气、非化石能源等驱动因素1991-2013年期间对GDP的年均贡献率分别为:36.38%、13.03%、16.99%、12.00%、21.60%,中国经济增长对能源投入的依赖较强;2煤炭、石油、天然气对非化石能源的替代弹性较小,可替代性较差,但非化石能源对煤炭的替代弹性从2007年开始逐步增大,同时,煤炭、石油利用的技术进步慢于非化石能源,这有利于我国双赢目标的实现;3为实现2020年的双赢目标,煤炭、石油、天然气和非化石能源2020年的投入量需要比2013年分别增长26.43%、26.92%、57.53%、64.27%,2020年的能源消费结构比例为:0.63∶0.18∶0.07∶0.12,各种能源增长幅度不同,保持平稳调整;4在双赢目标约束条件下,从非化石能源、煤炭、石油、天然气四种能源角度分析了实现该目标的路径条件。从整体上看,在技术进步推动下,到2020年中国可以实现经济年均增长7%、碳排放强度下降44%的双赢目标。