A Stochastic Dynamic Game of Carbon Emissions Trading

This paper proposes a computable stochastic equilibrium model to represent the possible competition between Russia and China on the international market of carbon emissions permits. The model includes a representation of the uncertainty concerning the date of entry of developing countries (e.g., China) on this market in the form of an event tree. Assuming that this date of entry is an uncontrolled event, we model the competition as a dynamic game played on an event tree and we look for a solution called S-adapted equilibrium. We compare the solution obtained from realistic data describing the demand curves for permits and the marginal abatement cost curves in different countries, under different market and information structures: (i) Russia's monopoly, (ii) Russia–China competition in a deterministic framework, (iii) Russia–China competition in a stochastic framework. The results show the possible impact of this competition on the pricing of emissions permits and on the effectiveness of Kyoto and post-Kyoto agreements, without a US participation.     

Modelling of Motor Vehicle Fuel Consumption and Emissions Using a Power-Based Model

The performance of a power based fuel consumption and exhaust emissions model for spark ignition vehicles has been evaluated using a large Australian database derived from testing a wide range of in-use cars on a chassis dynamometer. It was also applied to results of on-road fuel consumption measurement using a "floating" car which was driven back and forth on hilly roadways in Sydney with a length of 8.6 km. The model is found to predict the fuel consumption well over the standard drive cycles and also for the floating car. Average exhaust emissions were also well predicted, but, as would be expected, vehicle-to-vehicle correlation is impossible due to the well-known high variability of emissions between nominally identical vehicles.     

Characterisation of particulate matter emissions from the Zimbabwe Mining and Smelting Company (ZIMASCO) Kwekwe Division (Zimbabwe): a ferrochrome smelter

Particulate matter emissions from stack number 2 of a majorferrochrome smelter, Zimbabwe Mining and Smelting Company(ZIMASCO) were characterized and the rates at which the elementsCr, Fe, Cu and Zn and total ferrochrome dust are emitted into theatmosphere were determined. The extent of soil contamination bythe dust deposited around the smelter in the generally prevailingsoutheasterly wind direction around the smelter was carried out.The highest concentrations of Cr and Fe occurred in the fineparticulates of sizes less than 59 m whilst that of Cu and Znoccurred in the coarse particulates of size range 70-100 m.The emission rates from stack 2 were; total ferrochromeparticulates 62.17 kg h^-1, Cr 6.217 kg h^-1, Fe 2.423 kg h^-1, Zn42 mg h^-1 and 6 mg h^-1 for Cu. Particulate matter was emitted at arate of 289 mg m^-3 from stack number 2. This value exceeds thelegal limit of 200 mg m^-3. Chromium and iron are the metalsin the largest amounts. The particles that constitute the largestproportion of the dust were in the range of 58-107.5 m. Thisis a characteristic feature of the particulate matter emissionsfrom ZIMASCO. Soils in the downwind direction from the smelterwere polluted with Cr up to a distance of about 700 m outward fromthe perimeter of the boundary of the smelter.     

An Analysis with the CERT Model of the FSU Market Power in the Carbon Emissions Trading Market

This paper aims to assess the consequences of the amendments made to the Kyoto Protocol during COP 7 in Marrakech. The major issue of hot air and CDM transaction costs is examined using the CERT model to show that primary supply regions, typically those with hot air availability, might control the emissions reduction permit supply market and maximise net export revenues of permit supply by withholding 40 to 60% of available hot air credits. The assumption that primary permit suppliers control permit price via a restriction of hot air supply to the market will inadvertently leave a portion of the market share open to non-Annex B CDM supply, despite potentially extreme variance in CDM transaction costs. A summary table of policy implications on the emissions reduction permit market is also included.     

乙醇/PODE/柴油燃料及喷油参数对柴油机燃烧和排放影响

在一台六缸四冲程高压共轨柴油机上开展了乙醇/聚甲氧基二甲醚（PODE）/柴油混合燃料对内燃机燃烧和排放影响的试验研究.结果表明,在转速为1137 r·min^-1,转矩为735 N·m的工况条件下,随着掺混PODE和乙醇比例的增大,双峰放热越来越明显,扩散燃烧速率增大,有效燃油消耗率增大,有效热效率降低,但降低幅度小于1%,其中,DPE5（PODE体积分数为20%,乙醇体积分数为5%）的有效热效率与D100（纯柴油）基本相当.提前主喷时刻、增大喷油压力均使有效热效率增大,CO和碳烟排放降低,NO_x排放增大,而对降低HC排放的影响较小.相比D100,混合燃料可降低CO、HC、碳烟排放,在低喷油压力和较晚主喷时刻下,对碳烟的减排效果更为显著,最大降幅分别为85.5%（主喷时刻-1℃ A ATDC、喷油压力900 bar）和82.9%（主喷时刻-3℃ A ATDC、喷油压力600 bar）,但不同混合燃料间的排放差异较小.综上所述,重型柴油机使用乙醇/PODE/柴油混合燃料可在热效率相当的前提下对排放有较大改善.     

经济新常态下外贸发展对我国碳排放的影响

选取灵活的单区域模型,运用实物产值比计算方法,选取日本为进口代表国并结合进口国GDP排放强度的修正方法,针对加工贸易产品占我国外贸总额约50%的特点,改进现有内涵排放测算方法.研究结果显示我国出口产品内涵排放得到了显著的改善,呈现碳排放与出口额脱钩的现象,进口产品内涵排放占比全国碳排放的比重维持在3～5%左右,“十二五”期间净出口内涵排放的总量和占比比“十一五”期间都有所降低,显示我国出口贸易政策调整作用正在显现.需要不断坚持优化进出口政策,尽早实现我国进出口产品内涵排放之间的平衡.投资增速的快速下降已经开始对产业结构产生影响,但中国未来需要进一步加速最终消费的增长以弥补投资下降所带来的需求不足,并鼓励服务业需求的发展.     

京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放因素分解分析

基于LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method)方法分析2001-2016年京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放的8个影响因素,考虑了京津冀地区电力部门从生产投入、转换、传输到消费的整个过程;并分析了2001-2016年影响京、津、冀各地区CO2排放的各因素贡献值。结果表明,1)2001-2016年京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放总体呈现递增趋势,2012年出现负增长;河北省电力部门对京津冀电力部门CO2排放贡献最大,2001-2016年累计CO2排放变化量为145.70 Mt,但河北省电力部门的减排潜力巨大;2)人均GDP效应和人口规模效应是促进京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放增长的主要因素,2001-2016年累计贡献值分别为261.86 Mt和36.47 Mt;3)用电效率效应和电力输入输出效应是京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放量增长的主要抑制作用,2001-2016年累计贡献值分别为-49.40 Mt和-47.93 Mt;4)造成京、津、冀电力部门CO2排放差异的主要因素是人均GDP、化石能源转换效率和用电效率。     

Vehicular emissions in China in 2006 and 2010

Vehicular emissions in China in 2006 and 2010 were calculated at a high spatial resolution based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, by taking the emission standards into consideration. China's vehicular emissions of carbon monoxide(CO),nitrogen oxides(NO_x), volatile organic compounds(VOCs), ammonia(NH_3), fine particulate matters(PM_(2.5)), inhalable particulate matters(PM_(10)), black carbon(BC), and organic carbon(OC) were 30,113.9, 4593.7, 6838.0, 20.9, 400.2, 430.5, 285.6, and 105.1 Gg, respectively, in 2006 and 34,175.2, 5167.5, 7029.4, 74.0, 386.4, 417.1, 270.9, and 106.2 Gg, respectively, in 2010. CO,VOCs, and NH_3 emissions were mainly from motorcycles and light-duty gasoline vehicles,whereas NO_X, PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and BC emissions were mainly from rural vehicles and heavyduty diesel trucks. OC emissions were mainly from motorcycles and heavy-duty diesel trucks. Vehicles of pre-China Ⅰ(vehicular emission standard of China before phase Ⅰ) and China Ⅰ(vehicular emission standard of China in phase Ⅰ) were the primary contributors to all of the pollutant emissions except NH_3, which was mainly from China Ⅲ and China Ⅳ gasoline vehicles. The total emissions of all the pollutants except NH_3 changed little from2006 to 2010. This finding can be attributed to the implementation of strict emission standards and to improvements in oil quality.     

Emissions from the combustion of eucalypt and pine chips in a fluidized bed reactor

Interest in renewable energy sources has increased in recent years due to environmental concerns about global warming and air pollution,reduced costs and improved efficiency of technologies.Under the European Union(EU)energy directive,biomass is a suitable renewable source.The aim of this study was to experimentally quantify and characterize the emission of particulate matter(PM_(2.5))resulting from the combustion of two biomass fuels(chipped residual biomass from pine and eucalypt),in a pilot-scale bubbling fluidized bed(BFB)combustor under distinct operating conditions.The variables evaluated were the stoichiometry and,in the case of eucalypt,the leaching of the fuel.The CO and PM_(2.5)emission factors were lower when the stoichiometry used in the experiments was higher(0.33±0.1 g CO/kg and 16.8±1.0 mg PM_(2.5)/kg,dry gases).The treatment of the fuel by leaching before its combustion has shown to promote higher PM_(2.5)emissions(55.2±2.5 mg/kg,as burned).Organic and elemental carbon represented 3.1 to 30 wt.% of the particle mass,while carbonate(CO_3~(2-))accounted for between 2.3 and 8.5 wt.%.The particulate mass was mainly composed of inorganic matter(71% to 86% of the PM_(2.5)mass).Compared to residential stoves,BFB combustion generated very high mass fractions of inorganic elements.Chloride was the water soluble ion in higher concentration in the PM_(2.5)emitted by the combustion of eucalypt,while calcium was the dominant water soluble ion in the case of pine.     

袋式与电袋复合除尘器的粉尘排放影响因子研究

袋式和电袋复合除尘器的粉尘排放来自于三个方面:透过滤料的粉尘及滤袋缝线处的粉尘和除尘器本体上泄漏点的粉尘。一般人们多注重滤料的捕集效率,而对其他2类粉尘泄漏源的研究较少,尤其是对滤袋缝线的粉尘泄漏影响几乎没有研究。通过大量的实验室试验数据和数值模拟计算,分析了这3种泄漏源对除尘器粉尘排放的影响程度,在此基础上,提出了粉尘要达到"超低排放"时应该采取的主要技术措施。