Emissions trading in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region—A modeling approach to trade decisions in Hong Kong's electricity industry

In 2002, the Hong Kong government and the Guangdong provincial government agreed to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, respirable suspended particulates, and volatile organic compounds by 40%, 20%, 55%, and 55%, respectively. There was strong public demand for the power stations in Hong Kong to reduce emissions. Emission caps were introduced, with allowances for the trading of emission credits. However, local power stations were using equipment built in the 1980s and 1990s, making it difficult for them to meet the new emissions requirements. The situation presented a new challenge, which involved a choice of either improving the existing equipment, or using emissions trading to meet the emission caps. This study reviews the background on emissions in Hong Kong and the surrounding regions, the “cap and trade” system, and the technologies used for power generation and emission reduction. A modeling approach is adopted to simulate the equipment, the electricity dispatching requirements, and the costs of either reducing emissions or trading emission credits. Data from a power station in Hong Kong was chosen for the simulation. Different options were simulated in the model to identify the optimal strategy. The results were then compared with the plan for emission reduction. This study demonstrates that a modeling approach using linear programming can analyze the complicated options involving emission reduction and investments to achieve an optimized business solution.     

中国工业行业的生态效率

中国工业是资源消费和污染物排放的主要源头,解析工业各行业的生态效率可为中国产业结构调整和整体环境质量改善提供必要信息.在分析工业构成并构建工业系统与外部环境之间关系的基础上,选择能源消费和废水、固体废物、SO2、工业烟尘、粉尘等污染物的排放量作为研究的环境影响类别,界定了与这些环境影响相关的生态效率,估算了中国2007年的工业生态效率现状,结果为:能源效率615.5万元·ktce-1;废水和固废方面的生态效率分别为54.3万元·kt-1和1.9万元·t-1;工业SO2、烟尘和粉尘方面的生态效率分别为59.6、169.2和184.6万元·t-1.深入分析了39个工业部门的生态效率,结果表明,以上几种生态效率具有明显的行业不均衡性,表现为不同行业在不同类型生态效率中的工业排序明显不同;与此同时,对于同一种生态效率,不同工业行业的数值可相差几百倍到几万倍,表明通过优化工业结构将具有较大的提高工业生态效率的可能性.     

基于灰色理论GM（1，1）模型的陕西省工业废水排放量预测

该文根据2003～2009年陕西省工业废水的排放情况进行分析,采用灰色系统理论,引入二阶弱化算子D2,建立陕西省工业废水排放量GM（1,1）预测模型。采用残差大小和均方差比值对缓冲序列预测数据进行精度分析,误差较小,精度较高,模型可靠,可满足预测要求。运用预测模型对陕西省“十二五”期间工业废水排放量进行预测,得到2011-2015年工业废水排放量。对预测结果进行分析,计算出废水达标排放量年均增长量为395．42万吨;与工业总产值相联系,知工业废水排放量随着工业总产值的增加相应有所增加。     

Real-world fuel efficiency and exhaust emissions of light-duty diesel vehicles and their correlation with road conditions

The real-world fuel efficiency and exhaust emission profiles of CO, HC and NO_x for light-duty diesel vehicles were investigated. Using a portable emissions measurement system, 16 diesel taxies were tested on different roads in Macao and the data were normalized with the vehicle specific power bin method. The 11 Toyota Corolla diesel taxies have very good fuel economy of (5.9 ± 0.6) L/100 km, while other five diesel taxies showed relatively high values at (8.5 ± 1.7) L/100 km due to the variation in transmission systems and emission control strategies. Compared to similar Corolla gasoline models, the diesel cars confirmed an advantage of ca. 20% higher fuel efficiency. HC and CO emissions of all the 16 taxies are quite low, with the average at (0.05 ± 0.02) g/km and (0.38 ± 0.15) g/km, respectively. The average NO_x emission factor of the 11 Corolla taxies is (0.56 ± 0.17) g/km, about three times higher than their gasoline counterparts. Two of the three Hyundai Sonata taxies, configured with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) + diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) emission control strategies, indicated significantly higher NO₂ emissions and NO₂/NO_x ratios than other diesel taxies and consequently trigger a concern of possibly adverse impacts on ozone pollution in urban areas with this technology combination. A clear and similar pattern for fuel consumption and for each of the three gaseous pollutant emissions with various road conditions was identified. To save energy and mitigate CO₂ emissions as well as other gaseous pollutant emissions in urban area, traffic planning also needs improvement.     

合芜蚌试验区排污权交易制度建立之构想

排污权交易的实践证明了排污权交易可以有效地保护环境,同时也提出了亟需对其适用条件和建设模式进行探索的现实命题。文章以合芜蚌自主创新试验区为例,在分析了合芜蚌试验区内推行排污权交易制度的可行性基础上,提出了区域性排污权交易的构建模式。     

上海市终端能源消费的CO2排放影响因素定量分析

以对数平均指数法(LMDI)方法为基础,探讨了包括生活能耗在内的上海市终端能源消费CO2排放影响因素的分解方法,定量研究了能源强度下降、能源结构优化、产业结构调整、经济发展规模和人口数量等影响因素对CO2排放变化量的贡献率.研究表明,上海市2005~2009年CO2排放增长了2949万t,如果不采取任何减缓措施,经济增长和人口数量增加将导致CO2排放增长量相当于现在的2.5倍.能源强度下降、能源结构优化和产业结构调整起到了减缓CO2排放增长的作用,对减缓CO2排放增长的贡献率分别为-98%、-50%和-22%.与2000~2005年对比分析发现,工业部门能源强度下降和能源结构优化的减缓作用都有所下降,而产业结构调整开始发挥减排的作用,但贡献率还很低.生活能耗的CO2排放影响因素中,相较于人口数量增长,人均生活能耗上升是导致CO2排放增加的主要因素,且贡献率逐渐增大.     

燃气与燃煤电厂主要污染物排放估算分析

SO2、NOx和CO2是燃气和燃煤电厂排放的主要大气污染物,以三种污染物排放估算方法为基础,比较了几种机组容量下,燃气机组和燃煤机组污染物的排放量。结果表明:燃气电厂因其在环境保护方面的显著优越性,是解决电站环境污染的重要出路。     

重型柴油车对空气质量的影响及其排放的控制

通过对柴油车污染物排放的特征和机动车排放清单的分析,探讨了重型柴油车对我国城市空气质量的影响及其排放的控制.重型柴油车排放大量的氮氧化物和颗粒物,其中氮氧化物为大气中产生二次细粒子以及臭氧的重要前体物之一,导致区域性灰霾的形成,而柴油颗粒物是影响健康的一个主要有毒空气污染物,尤其是其中粒径为30～100 nm的超细粒子...     

中国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线实证研究——基于Gregory-Hansen协整分析

中国反复、多次出现大范围持续性雾霾天气使碳排放与经济增长问题成为理论界研究的热点,选取1978~2012年中国历年相关统计数据,采用Gregory-Hansen协整检验方法结合结构突变分析,实证检验我国碳排放与能源消费、经济增长及产业结构的关系。研究结果显示,中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线为正U型,且该曲线存在结构突变;经济增长、能源消费、产业结构对碳排放都具有显著的增排效应。因此,建议在保证经济可持续的中高速增长前提下,通过提高能源利用效率、推进产业结构调整等措施来降低碳排放量,使"APEC蓝"能够成为一种"新常态"。     

基于空间面板模型的碳排放影响因素分析——以长江经济带为例

随着全球变暖问题的日益严峻,气候问题引起了国际社会的广泛关注。长江经济带作为中国区域发展"三大战略"之一,面临着严峻的碳减排压力。为此,以二氧化碳排放为测度指标,定量分析了1998~2012年长江经济带二氧化碳的时空格局特征,并构建碳排放影响因素的空间面板模型,分析了产业结构、人口总量、经济水平、技术水平与城市化水平对长江经济带碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:1碳排放的绝对差异呈增大趋势,相对差异呈波动变化趋势;碳排放与人均GDP(1997年不变价)的相关性较弱;2碳排放空间格局相对稳定,高碳排放区域以江苏为中心,逐渐向四周扩散;3空间面板模型结果表明:人口总量是影响长江经济带碳排放时空格局演化的决定性因素,其次依次为经济水平、技术水平和城市化水平。