Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates

The uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emission inventories obtained by the aggregation of partial emissions from all sources and estimated to date for several countries is very high in comparison with the countries’ emissions limitation and reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the undertainty estimates values obtained thus far. One of the aims of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods to enable calculation of the inventory variances. The annual reported emissions are used and temporal smoothness of the emissions curve is assumed. The methods considered are: a spline-function-smoothing procedure; a time-varying parameter model; and the geometric Brownian motion model. These are validated on historical observations of the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The estimates of variances obtained are in a similar range to those obtained from national inventories using TIER1 or TIER2. Additionally, some regularities in the observed curves were noticed.     

1991～2000年中国森林火灾直接释放碳量估算

目前的研究表明生物圈的燃烧产物对大气有短期和长期的影响,植被燃烧会直接排放对环境有显著影响的气体,包括CO2和CH4等影响全球变化的温室气体,燃烧产生的固体颗粒物也会引起空气污染和影响天气。该文根据1991－2000的森林火灾统计数据和生物量研究结果,计算出我国森林火灾年均消耗森林地上生物量5Tg-7Tg,直接排放碳20.24Tg-28.56Tg,释放CO2和CH4分别为74.2Tg-104.7Tg和1.797Tg-2.536Tg,排放烟雾颗粒物0.999Tg-1.410Tg。1991－2000年森林火灾每年平均排放CO2量占我国总排放量（按2000年计算）的2.7-3.9%,CH4排放量占总排放量的3.3-4.7%。     

Towards global climate change mitigation: assessment of an afforestation option for Nigeria

This paper assesses the potential of an intensive afforestation program as a measure of reducing the atmospheric concentration of carbon in Nigeria. The results presented are based on the recently completed Nigerian Country Studies Program on Climate Change Mitigation. A comprehensive mitigation analysis process (COMAP) model was employed to carry out detailed cost/benefit evaluation of the mitigation option. The end-use based scenario adopted was considered the most appropriate strategy to sustainably implement the mitigation option in Nigeria.The analyses showed that the country could significantly reduce net carbon emission while at the same time meet all her essential domestic wood needs, if approximately 7.5×10⁶ ha of wasteland could be committed to an afforestation program over the 40 year period of projection. The initial cost of establishing such forest plantations, taking cognisance of the opportunity cost of land averaged at about US$500/ha, or in carbon terms, a unit cost of about $13 per tonne of carbon. In terms of carbon flow, if all the end-product based plantations considered (i.e. fuelwood, poles, pulpwood, sawlogs and veneer) were fully established and maintained, it was estimated that by the year 2030, the total carbon stored in the afforested land would be about 638.0×10⁶ t of carbon with an annual incremental rate of 16.0×10⁶ t of carbon. Other economic indicators (i.e. net present value of benefits, present value of costs and benefit for reduced atmospheric carbon) when evaluated showed that the afforestation option could be economically viable even when the investment capital was discounted at rates ranging from 9 to 33 percent for different wood products. It should be noted, however that implementation of such a program would require huge sums of money and a high degree of commitment on the part of Federal, State and Local governments if the associated financial, social and environmental benefits were to be derived.     

The Appalachian Mountains' Copper Basin and the concept of environmental susceptibility

The Copper Basin is located within the southern Appalachian Mountains primarily in extreme southeastern Tennessee, USA. It has long been known for its copper mining/smelting and associated chemical industry, as well as its severely injured environment. Virtually all previous commentary on the environmental degradation at this location have focused on human activities and their destructive impact. This article approaches the subject from a different angle, one that emphasizes the interaction between man and nature. The site's physical setting, industrial history, and environmental history are briefly reviewed. The theory then presented here is that certain of the Copper Basin's natural features made its environment unusually vulnerable to the negative impact of copper mining and smelting, especially as practiced around the turn of the century. These features are identified. This reasoning provides the basis for the concept of environmental susceptibility, which is defined and discussed. A few of its applications are mentioned. This study offers a new perspective on the Copper Basin, as well as insights for those whose work involves investigating the man/nature relationship—both past and present.     

Impacts on air pollution in urban areas

Environmental management involves controlling various forms of pollution to levels that do not pose a threat to the health of the people and the environment in general. This paper presents a framework to analyze sources of local air pollution in cities. Using an OLS model, an investigation is performed of the relationship among the concentrations of air pollutants [more precisely, concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), dust, nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon oxide (CO) and ozone (O₃)], economic activities, and meteorology. Time series analysis leads to a model, that explains a high degree of the variance in the air pollution data. The model is applied to daily time series from three measurement stations in innsbruck, Austria. Estimation results of the model generally fit with the expected relations. Space heating influences SO₂, dust, and NO, while NO₂ levels are primarily affected by traffic. These results also indicate interdependent relations among the pollutants NO, NO₂, O₃, and CO; O₃ levels depend on temperature and sunshine.     

Performance evaluation and emission characteristics of biodiesel-ignition enhancer blends propelled in a research diesel engine

This study details the effect of the Di-Methyl-Ether(DME) as a cetane improver on neat cashew nut shell biodiesel (CBD100) to assess the emission and performance engine characteristics. Four fuels, namely, diesel, biodiesel (Cashew nut shell Methyl Ester), a blend of CBD100-10% and 20% by volume of DME (CBD90DME10and CBD80DME20) are prepared and tested on a stationary research diesel engine. The experimental parameters for CBD80DME20 showed a 1.6% increase in thermal efficiency thereby reducing 4.1% of fuel consumption than the neat biodiesel at peak conditions. Experimental result exposed that 20% of DME reduces 3.4% CO, 4.2% HC and 8.8% NOx and 8.4% smoke emissions of CBD100. Based on the outcome of this work, it is clear that CBD80DME20 shall be employed as a substitute fuel for diesel engine.

Abbreviations: CI: Compression ignition; CBD100: Cashew nut shell Bio-diesel; DME: Di-methyl ether; CO: Carbon monoxide; BTE: Brake thermal efficiency; BSFC: Brake specific fuel consumption; CBD100: 100% Biodiesel; CBD90DME10: 90% biodiesel + 10% di-methyl-ether; CBD80DME20: 80% biodiesel + 20% di-methyl-ether; HC: Hydrocarbon; NO_x: Oxides of nitrogen.     

长三角城市居民家庭直接能耗碳排放空间特征及影响因素研究

目前关于碳排放的研究主要以国家和行政省(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象,围绕城市尺度家庭层面碳排放的研究相对匮乏,而家庭是社会最基本的组成单位,针对相关的碳排放特征及影响问题亟待解决.本文以2007—2016年长三角地区26个地级市数据为样本,测算城市居民家庭直接能耗碳排放量.利用K均值聚类法、空间相关性检验及空间面板建模等方法,考察城市居民家庭直接能耗碳排放量的空间演变分布特征及影响因素.结果表明:①城市居民家庭直接碳排放量高的城市位于长三角中部偏东的位置,排放量低的城市集中在西部位置,中部地区的碳排放量增长速度普遍快于其他地区.②长三角地区城市居民家庭直接能耗碳排放的空间关联程度呈"N"字形趋势,处于高高集聚状态的区域集中在以苏州市等为核心的偏中部地区,处于低低集聚状态的区域集中在西部边缘地区.③前后5年的回归结果对比表明:户均人口数由不显著的正向影响因素转变为重要的抑制因素;户均私家车与每户拥有的城市道路面积联合效应的正向影响作用越来越强烈.研究结论可为城市在动态制定碳减排政策时提供理论依据.     

中国水泥碳排放测算的影响因素分析与不确定度计算

作为水泥生产大国和CO_2排放大户,中国水泥行业的CO_2排放在国际上受到越来越广泛的重视,然而不同的研究结果之间存在不同程度的差异.为了定量研究中国水泥碳排放测算的影响因素,对碳排放因子的测算、运营边界的界定及水泥熟料或水泥成品的产量这3个影响因素做了详细分析,并对碳排放因子的不确定度做了定量计算.结果发现,影响中国水泥碳排放测算的最主要因素是碳排放因子,而该因素又与生产工艺、燃料和熟料水泥比等密切相关.本研究结果比IPCC、EDGAR、CDIAC和WBCSD/CSI等研究结果均低,并且差异逐年显著,以水泥碳排放来自碳酸盐分解的部分为例,2000年相差约65 Mt,而2012年差值接近450 Mt.计算表明,中国水泥碳排放不确定度为12%~22%.因此,水泥碳排放测算的影响因素较多,在计算中国水泥碳排放量时不可照搬国外研究的参数.     

河口潮滩湿地CH4、CO2排放通量对氮硫负荷增强的响应

以闽江河口区高、中潮滩短叶茳芏湿地为研究对象,于2014年6—11月植物生长季进行氮硫负荷增强实验,利用静态箱-气象色谱法测定土壤CH_4、CO_2排放通量,并同步观测相关环境因子.结果表明,氮硫负荷增强对潮滩湿地CH_4、CO_2排放通量的影响不尽一致.与对照相比,NH_4~+-N输入使高、中潮滩CH4排放通量分别提高了(107.53%,7.19%),使高潮滩CO_2排放通量增加了3.39%,中潮滩减少了3.00%;NO_3~--N输入使高潮滩CH4、CO_2排放通量分别增加了(29.99%,16.99%),使中潮滩分别减少了(3.45%,4.77%);SO_4~(2-)-S输入使高、中潮滩CH4排放通量分别减少了(8.99%,7.67%),使高潮滩CO_2排放通量减少了3.87%,中潮滩增加了5.44%;N-S复合输入使高、中潮滩CH4排放通量分别提高了(72.48%,25.66%),CO_2排放通量提高了(13.32%,13.48%).氮硫负荷增强改变了短叶茳芏沼泽生长季CH_4、CO_2排放通量变化规律,但除了NH+4-N处理对高潮滩CH4通量的影响显著外,其他处理影响均未达到显著性水平.相关分析显示,高、中潮滩湿地CH_4、CO_2排放通量与土壤温度,含水率具有显著的正线性相关关系,与土壤电导率相关性不显著.在全球环境问题日益严重背景下,系统研究湿地生态系统温室气体排放的机制与规律,对于准确估算全球温室气体排放量具有重要而直接的意义.     

中国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局及影响因素分析

随着经济社会的发展与人民生活水平的提高,生活用能强度逐年增大,城市居民生活能源碳排放日益成为碳排放的新增长点.本文采用Theil指数、空间自相关分析了我国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局演变特征,并利用STIRPAT模型分析了影响城市居民生活能源碳排放的主要因素.结果表明:12001—2012年我国城市居民生活能源碳排放总量及人均生活能源碳排放量均呈增长趋势,其年增长率分别为9.69%、3.29%;2八大经济区域间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的差异是构成我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放总体差异的主要原因,其对总差异的贡献率达到了57.90%;3我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性,2001—2012年间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的"冷点"区变化较为稳定,主要分布在东部和南部经济区,而"热点"区主要分布在西北、东北和黄河中游经济区;4城市人口规模、城市居民可支配收入、城市居民生活消费支出、城市居民年龄结构均对城市居民生活能源碳排放量具有加剧作用,而城市居民能源消费结构具有减缓作用,且北方城市居民生活能源碳排放量明显高于南方;5现有样本数据支持环境Kuznets曲线假说,即随着经济的发展,城市居民生活能源碳排放量存在转折点.