Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

This paper estimates the future greenhousegas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions forIndia under various scenarios. Thereference scenario assumes continuation ofthe current official policies of the Indiangovernment and forecasts of macro-economic,demographic and energy sector indicators.Other scenarios analyzed are the economicgrowth scenarios (high and low), carbonmitigation scenario, sulfur mitigationscenario and frozen (development) scenario.The main insight is that GHG and localpollutant emissions from India, althoughconnected, do not move in synchronizationin future and have a disjoint under variousscenarios. GHG emissions continue to risewhile local pollutant emissions decreaseafter some years. GHG emission mitigationtherefore would have to be pursued for itsown sake in India. National energy securityconcerns also favor this conclusion sincecoal is the abundant national resource whilemost of the natural gas has to be imported.The analysis of contributing factors tothis disjoint indicates that sulfurreduction in petroleum oil products andpenetration of flue gas desulfurisationtechnologies are the two main contributorsfor sulfur dioxide (SO₂) mitigation.The reduction in particulate emissions ismainly due to enforcing electro-staticprecipitator efficiency norms in industrialunits, with cleaner fuels and vehicles alsocontributing substantially. These policytrends are already visible in India.Another insight is that high economicgrowth is better than lower growth tomitigate local pollution as lack ofinvestible resources limits investments incleaner environmental measures. Ouranalysis also validates the environmentalKuznets' curve for India as SO₂emissions peak around per capita GDP ofUS$ 5,300–5,400 (PPP basis) under variouseconomic growth scenarios.     

Fossil carbon emissions associated with carbon flowsof wood products

Specific fossil carbon (C) emissions and primary energy useassociated with the manufacture of different wood product groups inFinland are estimated and expressed as emissions or energy use per amountof wood-based C in raw material and per amount in end product. Thecalculation includes both emissions from supplied fuels within the forestindustries, and from electricity and district heat purchased from externalsources. The results are compared to fossil C emissions from the wholelifecycle of harvested wood products. The results of the study show, forinstance, that the emission of fossil C per wood-based C in end products(MgC/MgC) is of the order of 0.07 for sawn wood and 0.3–0.6 for paperin the manufacturing stage. The primary energy use per wood-based C inend product is of the order of 2 MWh/MgC for sawn wood, whereas forvirgin paper grades the figure is between 17 and 19 MWh/MgC. Theprimary energy content is highest in papers based on chemical pulping, butaround 60% of the energy used is produced in this case from by-productwood wastes (black liquor, bark etc.). The specific fossil C emission andprimary energy divided by the estimated service life of the wood productare measures for the relative burden of maintaining the corresponding woodproduct pool. These figures should be kept in mind when considering woodproducts as a potential C sink option.     

Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the “Brazilian Proposal”). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change—from emissions of greenhouse gases alone—are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO₂ emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points.     

The potential for spatial planning at the landscape level to mitigate the effects of atmospheric ammonia deposition

Ammonia (NH₃) is emitted mainly from agricultural practices, with NH₃ concentrations decreasing rapidly away from sources. As a consequence there is a high spatial variability in nitrogen deposition and its consequent ecological effects in agricultural landscapes that is in addition to differences in sensitivity between habitat types. This variability points to the potential to include spatial planning measures as part of strategies to protect sensitive vegetation from ammonia deposition.National abatement policies typically include uniform recommendations for technical abatement measures, such as ploughing in manures after land spreading. In this study, the complementary potential of spatial planning to reduce effects on target locations is analysed through model scenarios for an example landscape in central England. Scenarios included defining buffer zones of low-emission agriculture and establishing tree belts surrounding either emission sources or priority areas for the protection of semi-natural habitats.The analysis showed that tree belts can reduce deposition to sensitive areas, with trees surrounding the sensitive habitats being more effective than trees around the sources. Low emission buffer zones around sink areas also result in useful reductions in N deposition. Smaller nature reserve sites benefit to a greater degree from such spatial planning measures, as large reserves can provide their own buffer zone to some degree. Similarly, relocating point sources or using planning policies to ensure the location of large NH₃ point sources are at least 2–3 km from the sensitive habitats results in substantial reductions in N deposition.     

2000年广西壮族自治区酸沉降预测

以我国酸沉降敏感区——“湘桂走廊”作为控制域,预测广西壮族自治区2000年酸沉降趋势.采用弹性系数法和趋势外推法预测了2000年原煤消耗量与SO_2排放量.并用区域模式与局地模式相叠加的方法预测了不削减方案下2000年“湘桂走廊”的SO_2浓度及硫沉降趋势.用趋势外推法估算出2000年降水pH值.     

中国城市NOx排放的时空特征与驱动因素:基于空间分异视角

空气质量的改善是当前中国社会经济转型及实现绿色可持续发展的重要目标之一.基于中国268个城市2007-2016年的氮氧化物（Nitrogen Oxide Emissions，NO_x）排放量数据，首先利用自然正交函数（Empirical Orthogonal Function，EOF）分析了268个城市NO_x排放的时空演变特征，然后采用一种新的空间分异性分析方法"地理探测器"从空间异质性视角探讨了NO_x排放的社会经济驱动因素.结果表明：①EOF第一模态特征向量的高值出现在京津冀地区、山东半岛的淄博、潍坊、济宁和临沂，以及长三角的上海、无锡、南京、苏州和杭州；低值则集中在西南的云贵地区、东南的广东、福建及西北的宁夏.②年尺度上NO_x排放的时间系数变化大致呈现先降后升再降的非线性波动.③因子探测分析结果显示，民用汽车总量对NO_x排放分布的影响最大，其次是城市人口和工业总产值.不同风险因子的交互作用均大于单因子的作用，其中，城市人口与人均GDP因子之间的交互作用强度最大，工业总产值与民用汽车总量的交互作用强度次之，人均GDP与城市建设用地面积的交互作用强度排第3.④风险区探测结果显示，社会经济驱动因子中的城市人口、人均GDP、工业总产值、城市建设用地面积、全社会用电量和民用汽车总量均与NO_x排放呈正相关.京津冀、山东半岛和长三角等发达城市为NO_x排放的高风险区，是社会经济驱动因素的多个风险因子共同作用的结果.     

The lead content and isotopic composition of british coals and their implications for past and present releases of lead to the UK environment

More than 60 coal samples, predominantly from the principal coalfields of England and Wales (25) and Scotland (30), were analysed for lead by AAS and for stable lead isotopes by ICPMS. While the average lead content of Scottish coal, 23.9mg kg^–1, was more than double that of coal from England and Wales, 11.0mg kg^–1, the corresponding mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios (± 1 s.d.) were nearly identical, at 1.181±0.011 and 1.184±0.006, respectively. In the light of the lead isotopic signatures of British coals and of both indigenous (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb 1.17) and imported Australian (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb 1.04) lead ores, an approach based on estimated lead emissions from these sources and the deconvolution of the historical lead and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb records preserved in lake sediments, peat bogs and archival herbage material indicates that coal combustion became an increasingly significant contributor to atmospheric lead deposition in the UK during the period 1830–1930, especially after the onset of Englands decline as a major location of lead mining and smelting in the late19th Century. Since 1930 and the introduction of leaded petrol, the atmospheric ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio in the UK has been strongly influenced by carexhaust emissions of comparatively ²⁰⁶Pbdepleted lead of predominantly Australian origin, counterbalanced to some extent by coalcombustion emissions of lead, although these have fallen dramatically since the mid1950s. Nevertheless, with the introduction and substantial uptake of unleaded petrol in the UK during the last decade, even the declining releases from coal, along with contributions from other sources, are continuing to affect the atmospheric lead content and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio.     

Monitoring of Hydrocarbon Emissions in a Petroleum Refinery

In a petroleum refinery the hydrocarbon emissions which are mostly fugitive in nature are emitted from process, offsites and periodic accidental releases such as: materials storage & handling, process, equipment leaks, solvent evaporation, combustion sources, waste treatment etc. In India, the monitoring of such emissions in a refinery are limited as also the standards are not set for its limit in ambient air. Hence there is an urgent need for generating a database for such emissions. Recently in India, MoEF/CPCB has set some guidelines under CREP rules for monitoring such emissions in a refinery. A detailed monitoring of the hydrocarbon emissions from different sources in a typical 10.5 MMTPA Indian refinery is undertaken during 1999–2001 and the results are presented. It is observed that the storage tank emissions alongwith process leaks form the major contributor towards fugitive hydrocarbon emissions.     

The Appalachian Mountains' Copper Basin and the concept of environmental susceptibility

The Copper Basin is located within the southern Appalachian Mountains primarily in extreme southeastern Tennessee, USA. It has long been known for its copper mining/smelting and associated chemical industry, as well as its severely injured environment. Virtually all previous commentary on the environmental degradation at this location have focused on human activities and their destructive impact. This article approaches the subject from a different angle, one that emphasizes the interaction between man and nature. The site's physical setting, industrial history, and environmental history are briefly reviewed. The theory then presented here is that certain of the Copper Basin's natural features made its environment unusually vulnerable to the negative impact of copper mining and smelting, especially as practiced around the turn of the century. These features are identified. This reasoning provides the basis for the concept of environmental susceptibility, which is defined and discussed. A few of its applications are mentioned. This study offers a new perspective on the Copper Basin, as well as insights for those whose work involves investigating the man/nature relationship—both past and present.     

Influence of cetane improvers on the air quality in an urban street canyon

The concentration distributions of NO_x, PM, HC and CO in an urban street canyon have been estimated using a two-dimensional air quality numerical model based on the k– turbulent model and the atmospheric convection diffusion equation when various cetane improvers were used in diesel fuels. A wind vortex can be found within the street canyon, and the pollutants emitted from the bottom of the street canyon tend to follow the course of the wind field, moving circularly. The addition of cetane improvers can improve the air quality in a street canyon, all of the pollutants were found to decrease with increasing centane number.