中国资源型城市CO_2排放比较研究

城市,特别是资源型城市,作为践行国家应对气候变化战略行动的重要主体,在绿色发展转型以及生态文明建设进程中正面临诸多现实挑战。资源型城市能否实现低碳发展转型,关乎我国在国际社会上承诺的中长期碳减排目标能否最终实现。为此,本研究基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据(CHRED),综合运用DPSIR(驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应)、分类比较研究和情景分析等方法,对我国126个资源型城市的CO_2排放特征进行了系统分析,揭示了这些城市在能源结构和产业结构方面面临的诸多挑战,分析了这些城市未来碳排放趋势和碳减排潜力。研究结果显示:在正常达峰情景下,2030年126个资源型城市将以72.65亿t的CO_2排放量达峰,约占当年全国CO_2排放总量的60%;在提前达峰情景下,资源型城市将在2025年以53.78亿t的CO_2排放量达峰,约占当年全国CO_2排放总量的45%左右。最后,针对我国资源型城市的绿色低碳发展转型以及碳排放达峰管理提出几点建议:一是加强能源统计工作,促进资源型城市碳排放信息化管理平台建设;二是加强体制机制建设,健全资源型城市绿色低碳转型制度体系;三是改善以煤炭等化石燃料为主导的能源消费结构,提高清洁燃料利用的比重;四是加快绿色低碳技术发展,推动产业优化升级和碳排放强度明显下降。     

中国深度脱碳路径及政策分析

《巴黎协定》开启了全球气候治理的新进程,进一步明确了全球应对气候变化的紧迫性和目标要求。对中国来说,如何尽快推动经济增长和碳排放的脱钩,不仅是实现应对气候变化中长期战略目标的核心任务,更是保障经济社会可持续发展的必然要求。为此,本文基于中国经济、社会、能源和重要的终端能源消费行业历史发展趋势的分析,通过"自下而上"的模型方法考察了能源、工业、建筑、交通等行业和领域的深度碳减排潜力,并基于详细的技术分析提出了中国中长期的深度脱碳路径。研究表明,在深度脱碳路径下,中国将顺利完成国家自主贡献提出的2030年左右碳排放达峰和碳强度较2005年下降60%—65%的目标;此后非化石能源发展进一步加速,到2050年非化石能源在一次能源中占比达到44%左右,工业、建筑、交通等终端耗能行业的低碳转型进一步加速,2050年碳排放回落至2005年前水平,碳强度较2005年下降90%以上。为实现深度脱碳,本文从强化碳排放总量约束和相关制度规范建设、完善产业低碳发展激励政策、加强相关市场机制作用、倡导低碳生活和消费等四方面提出了相应的政策建议,以供决策者参考。     

Is pork trade good for China's greenhouse gas emissions?

China produces the largest amount of pork in the world, which emits the largest amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs). This paper calculates GHG emissions from China’s hog production at the provincial level using newly published emission factors. Empirical results show that GHG emissions from China’s hog production mainly respond to the scale intensity. Capital abundance and income contribute positively to GHG emissions from hog production. Pork trade increases GHG emissions from China’s hog production with a significantly direct effect, reduces GHG emissions through indirect technique effects.     

The EU effect: does trade with the EU reduce CO2 emissions in the developing world?

The European Union (EU) is an important destination for developing country exports. Has the EU’s commitment to the Kyoto Protocol induced developing countries to reduce their carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions? Our analyses of 136 developing countries from 1981 through 2007 suggests that: developing countries’ export dependence on the EU is associated with CO₂ emission reductions post-Kyoto in relation to the pre-Kyoto time period; this also holds for SO_2, which, while not covered under Kyoto, is linked with CO₂ emission levels; this does not hold for PM₁₀, a pollutant which is not covered under Kyoto and is not directly associated with CO₂ emissions related to industrial activities; developing countries’ export dependence on non-EU developed countries and on the rest of the world is not associated with significant reductions in emissions between pre- and post-Kyoto for these pollutants . In sum, even in the absence of binding regulatory mandates, the EU appears to exert market leverage to project its regulatory preferences abroad.     

排污权交易基准价定价机制探讨

构建科学合理的基准价定价机制是推动排污权交易的基础性工作,本文以政策、管理、技术三个方面作为立足点,探讨了基准价定价机制,构建了工作框架。研究认为现阶段基准价定价采取成本定价法是合适的,并对基准价定价技术难点进行了剖析,提出了建议。     

Responses of CH(4), CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes to increasing nitrogen deposition in alpine grassland of the Tianshan Mountains

To assess the effects of nitrogen (N) deposition on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in alpine grassland of the Tianshan Mountains in central Asia, CH₄, CO₂ and N₂O fluxes were measured from June 2010 to May 2011. Nitrogen deposition tended to significantly increase CH₄ uptake, CO₂ and N₂O emissions at sites receiving N addition compared with those at site without N addition during the growing season, but no significant differences were found for all sites outside the growing season. Air temperature, soil temperature and water content were the important factors that influence CO₂ and N₂O emissions at year-round scale, indicating that increased temperature and precipitation in the future will exert greater impacts on CO₂ and N₂O emissions in the alpine grassland. In addition, plant coverage in July was also positively correlated with CO₂ and N₂O emissions under elevated N deposition rates. The present study will deepen our understanding of N deposition impacts on GHG balance in the alpine grassland ecosystem, and help us assess the global N effects, parameterize Earth System models and inform decision makers.     

内地与香港燃煤电厂大气污染物排放控制政策与标准比较

香港特区与广东省政府联合成立粤港持续发展与环保合作小组,并发表《改善珠江三角洲空气质量的联合声明》（简称＂减排联合声明＂）,同意制定合理的减排方案,共同执行管理计划。总结分析了粤、港地区在治理燃煤电厂大气污染物方面的控制政策,并对大陆与香港特区燃煤电厂大气污染物的排放标准进行比较。     

低碳经济:中国实现绿色发展的根本途径

应对全球气候变化,保障能源安全是世界各国共同面对的挑战。中国作为一个新兴的发展中大国,不仅人口众多,经济发展、消除贫困、保障民生的任务极为繁重,人均GDP需要保持持续增长,而且能源消费以煤炭为主,CO2排放量居世界第二,同时煤炭资源禀赋较差,其温室气体排放的强度和控制的难度比较大,再加上我国能源技术相对较为落后,实施技术改造和产业转型升级的难度也比较大,我国减排的压力不容小视。中国要从根本上降低CO2排放量,实现节能减排,促进绿色发展,必须找出实现节能减排,促进绿色发展的关键环节,其途径在于大力发展低碳经济,发展包括低碳经济在内的循环经济和节能经济、清洁生产、生态经济以及绿色消费,促进绿色发展。针对低碳经济的理论基础、发展的国际背景,以及我国发展低碳经济的优势、机遇和挑战等问题,本文进行了深入分析,并提出了我国发展低碳经济的具体措施建议。     

中西部地区发展低碳经济的政策困境与出路

低碳经济包含三个核心要素,即发展目标、减排和成本。发展低碳经济就是要在这三者之间达成一种平衡,也就是在保证发展目标的前提下,实现低排放和低成本。如果单纯为了经济快速转型和兑现减排承诺,而制定和实施强制减排政策,必然引发各种经济冲突和社会矛盾,从而使低碳经济发展陷入困境。从根本上讲,应该把低碳经济纳入国家整体发展规划进行考量,而不仅仅是作为工业减排的附属品。