Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.     

Developing Metapopulation Connectivity Criteria from Genetic and Habitat Data to Recover the Endangered Mexican Wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción     

Defining and Evaluating the Umbrella Species Concept for Conserving and Restoring Landscape Connectivity

Conserving or restoring landscape connectivity between patches of breeding habitat is a common strategy to protect threatened species from habitat fragmentation. By managing connectivity for some species, usually charismatic vertebrates, it is often assumed that these species will serve as conservation umbrellas for other species. We tested this assumption by developing a quantitative method to measure overlap in dispersal habitat of 3 threatened species—a bird (the umbrella), a butterfly, and a frog—inhabiting the same fragmented landscape. Dispersal habitat was determined with Circuitscape, which was parameterized with movement data collected for each species. Despite differences in natural history and breeding habitat, we found substantial overlap in the spatial distributions of areas important for dispersal of this suite of taxa. However, the intuitive umbrella species (the bird) did not have the highest overlap with other species in terms of the areas that supported connectivity. Nevertheless, we contend that when there are no irreconcilable differences between the dispersal habitats of species that cohabitate on the landscape, managing for umbrella species can help conserve or restore connectivity simultaneously for multiple threatened species with different habitat requirements. Definición y Evaluación del Concepto de Especie Paraguas para Conservar y Restaurar la Conectividad de Paisajes     

Environmental cost of using poor decision metrics to prioritize environmental projects

Conservation decision makers commonly use project‐scoring metrics that are inconsistent with theory on optimal ranking of projects. As a result, there may often be a loss of environmental benefits. We estimated the magnitudes of these losses for various metrics that deviate from theory in ways that are common in practice. These metrics included cases where relevant variables were omitted from the benefits metric, project costs were omitted, and benefits were calculated using a faulty functional form. We estimated distributions of parameters from 129 environmental projects from Australia, New Zealand, and Italy for which detailed analyses had been completed previously. The cost of using poor prioritization metrics (in terms of lost environmental values) was often high—up to 80% in the scenarios we examined. The cost in percentage terms was greater when the budget was smaller. The most costly errors were omitting information about environmental values (up to 31% loss of environmental values), omitting project costs (up to 35% loss), omitting the effectiveness of management actions (up to 9% loss), and using a weighted‐additive decision metric for variables that should be multiplied (up to 23% loss). The latter 3 are errors that occur commonly in real‐world decision metrics, in combination often reducing potential benefits from conservation investments by 30–50%. Uncertainty about parameter values also reduced the benefits from investments in conservation projects but often not by as much as faulty prioritization metrics.     

Computing sustainable manufacturing index with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The growing industrial interest in adopting sustainability programmes has ushered in studies regarding sustainability indicators which have continually flourished in current literature. However, limited attention is given to the development of priority ranking, which is an important input for any adopting firm. This paper presents a hybrid multi-criteria approach in determining priority areas in sustainable manufacturing (SM). Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to address uncertainty in hierarchical decision-making, this paper determines SM priority strategies and eventually identifies even lower level strategies. The computed sustainable manufacturing index is presented at both the organizational and operational levels for a real case study of an industrial plastic manufacturing firm. This work provides a detailed and transparent hierarchical decision-making approach based on SM framework, the use of which could be valuable to practicing managers across industries in their pursuit of greater sustainability.     

Credibility and advocacy in conservation science

Conservation policy sits at the nexus of natural science and politics. On the one hand, conservation scientists strive to maintain scientific credibility by emphasizing that their research findings are the result of disinterested observations of reality. On the other hand, conservation scientists are committed to conservation even if they do not advocate a particular policy. The professional conservation literature offers guidance on negotiating the relationship between scientific objectivity and political advocacy without damaging conservation science's credibility. The value of this guidance, however, may be restricted by limited recognition of credibility's multidimensionality and emergent nature: it emerges through perceptions of expertise, goodwill, and trustworthiness. We used content analysis of the literature to determine how credibility is framed in conservation science as it relates to apparent contradictions between science and advocacy. Credibility typically was framed as a static entity lacking dimensionality. Authors identified expertise or trustworthiness as important, but rarely mentioned goodwill. They usually did not identify expertise, goodwill, or trustworthiness as dimensions of credibility or recognize interactions among these 3 dimensions of credibility. This oversimplification may limit the ability of conservation scientists to contribute to biodiversity conservation. Accounting for the emergent quality and multidimensionality of credibility should enable conservation scientists to advance biodiversity conservation more effectively.     

正常污泥和膨胀污泥中EPS膜污染特性及其与膜表面作用能分析

胞外聚合物(Extracellular polymeric substance,EPS)是导致膜污染的重要物质,且不同形态污泥的EPS具有不同的性质,研究正常污泥和膨胀污泥的EPS膜污染特性具有重要意义.因此,实验考察了正常污泥和膨胀污泥的膜污染速率.结果表明,膨胀污泥膜污染速率远高于正常污泥,膨胀污泥EPS(Bulking sludge-EPS,BS-EPS)浓度((172.9±10.4) mg·g-1)明显高于正常污泥EPS(Normal sludge-EPS,NS-EPS)浓度((95.9±6 6) mg·g-1),且膨胀污泥的蛋白质/多糖(Protein/Carbohydrate,P/C)值(2.26)高于正常污泥的P/C值(1 97)此外,通过序批式吸附实验研究了正常污泥和膨胀污泥的EPS膜污染差异,并基于Derjaguine-Landaue-Verweye-Overbeek (XDLVO)理论计算了EPS与PVDF膜表面之间的作用能结果表明,EPS-膜系统的总界面能为负值,即EPS-膜系统之间会发生自吸附行为,而膜与BS-EPS的总界面能(-63.943mJ.m2)较膜与NS-EPS(-56.366 mJ·m2)具有较高的能量,因此,BS-EPS与膜的吸附力较强;NS-EPS和BS-EPS主要能量壁垒分别为8.89 kT和7.51 kT,表明NS-EPS与膜之间的排斥力更强,因而BS-EPS更容易造成膜污染     

在用车I／M制度的脆性及脆性源研究

I／M制度作为一个系统存在着脆性源,如果该制度在运行过程中控制不好脆性源,则其有效实施将受到影响。利用系统脆性理论对该制度进行分析研究找出L／M制度系统的脆性源以及解决措施是其分析研究的目的。在系统子因子中从业人员素质、仪器设备是最大的脆性源,但是其均被维修企业和检测企业所包含。综合分析研究结果显示,由于其在维修企业的脆性度比在检测企业的脆性度大,所以维修企业是该制度最重要的脆性源。用系统脆性理论分析方法分析I／M制度的脆性是一种科学、有效和实用的方法,具有较好的应用前景,为保障更好的运行I／M制度以有效的控制在用车的排放提供了理论依据。     

博弈论在弹道导弹核潜艇威慑能力定性评估中的应用

以国际政治经济学领域常用的博弈论为基础,建立了不同情况下的弹道导弹核潜艇核威慑能力的定性分析模型,其核心是分析威慑双方的策略互动,以便能够更加客观地对弹道导弹核潜艇的威慑能力进行评估。针对信息完全和信息缺失的情况,博弈论模型能够简便快捷地对弹道导弹核潜艇的核威慑效果进行评估,并能够提出提高潜艇威慑效果的具体措施。     

基于证据理论的烟花爆竹生产经营企业安全评价方法研究

在烟花爆竹生产经营企业的安全评价中,存在着很大的不确定性。证据理论作为一种处理不确定性问题的有效工具,已经被广泛应用到很多领域中。本文建立了烟花爆竹生产经营企业的安全系统风险评价指标体系,并应用证据理论处理烟花爆竹生产经营企业安全评价中的不确定性问题,通过实例验证结果表明基于证据理论对烟花爆竹生产经营企业进行风险评价具有可行性、有效性与实用性。