中国工业CO_2排放的行业间传导网络及协同减排

工业是碳排放的主要部门,科学识别工业CO_2排放的行业间传导并揭示其联动结构对于跨行业协同减排具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于1991-2012年中国工业36个两位数行业数据,在VAR模型框架下,利用Granger因果检验方法对CO_2排放的行业间传导关系进行了识别,并从关系视角出发,借助社会网络分析方法(SNA)揭示工业CO_2排放行业间传导的整体和个体网络结构特征,研究发现:工业CO_2排放的行业间传导呈网络结构形态,网络密度在1-6期的滞后阶数下呈先升高后下降的趋势,并且在滞后2期达到最高;燃气生产和供应业、电力热力生产和供应业、服装业、造纸及纸制品业、木材加工业具有较高的度数中心度、中介中心度、接近中心度,在网络中处于核心位置,并发挥中介和桥梁作用;在CO_2排放的行业传导网络中,煤炭采选业、黑色金属矿采选业、有色金属矿采选业等10个行业属于经纪人板块,医药制造业、饮料制造业、化学纤维制造业等9个行业属于净受益板块,金属制品业、塑料制品业、农副食品加工业等11个行业属于双向溢出板块,烟草加工业、石油加工及炼焦业、燃气生产和供应业等6个行业属于净溢出板块。基于上述结论,本文提出了工业CO_2排放的跨行业协同减排思路。     

中国旅游业CO_2排放区域差异的空间分析

在旅游业节能减排形势严峻的背景下,深入研究中国旅游业CO_2排放问题,制定科学的区域节能减排政策已刻不容缓。本文首先运用"自下而上"法,估算了1993-2012年中国整体旅游业、旅游业各分部门、大陆各省区(不含西藏)旅游业CO_2排放量。在此基础上,对全国及三大地带旅游业CO_2排放的总体特征进行分析;利用Theil指数法分析了中国旅游业CO_2排放强度的区域差异、区域内差异和区域间差异;运用AreView软件对中国旅游业CO_2排放强度的省际差异进行直观图示。分析结果显示:1993-2012年,中国旅游业CO_2排放量从1 480.868×10~4t升至6 274.129×10~4t;全国及三大地带旅游业CO_2排放强度整体上呈现出先显著下降、再缓慢梯度下降的趋势;中国旅游业CO_2排放强度空间分布不均匀,东部地区旅游业CO_2排放强度低于中部和西部地区;中国旅游业CO_2排放强度的区域总体差异、区域间差异和区域内差异整体呈逐渐缩小的趋势,区域间差异对总体差异的贡献率为94%-98%,区域间差异占主导地位;中国旅游业CO_2排放强度省际差异明显,属于旅游业CO_2排放强度弱显著区的省区基本位于东部沿海地区,河北、湖南、河南、广西、甘肃和新疆等省区频繁出现在旅游业CO_2排放强度强显著区之列,因此上述省区应是中国旅游业CO_2未来节能减排的区域重点。据此提出差别化的CO_2减排对策:东部地区应通过技术改进和调整产业结构、能源消费结构来降低CO_2排放强度,并以此带动中部和西部地区旅游业节能减排;中部和西部地区应加强与东部地区合作,将提高能源使用率、降低CO_2排放强度作为旅游业减排工作的重点。     

环境分权、市场分割与碳排放

中国有着庞大的环境管理队伍以及巨大的国内市场,科学的环境管理制度以及高度一体化的国内市场将深刻改变碳排放格局,然而,已有研究对于这些影响碳排放的体制性因素既缺乏足够的理论分析也缺乏实证检验。有鉴于此,本文首先分析了环境分权和市场分割影响碳排放的理论机理,并提出了三个理论假设,进一步地,本文以环境管理人员在不同层级政府的配置衡量环境分权度,以相对价格法衡量市场分割程度,基于1995-2012年的省际面板数据,从实证层面检验了环境分权和市场分割对碳排放的影响效应。结果显示:环境分权和市场分割都显著地加剧了碳排放,原因在于分权的环境管理体制安排扭曲了激励,无法对碳排放形成真实有效的约束,而市场分割则恶化了碳排放在区域间的配置效率。同时,环境分权与市场分割对碳排放的共同影响作用上存在互补效应,即环境分权程度越高,市场分割对碳排放的负面影响效应越大,反之,市场分割程度越高,环境分权对碳排放的负面影响效应也越大。这主要是由于环境分权与市场分割是地方政府一对互补的策略行为,在环境分权较高的地区,地方政府进行市场分割的能力越强,而在市场分割较高的地区,地方政府争取环境事务管理权的动力越强。因此,在既定的碳排放约束下,中央政府一方面需要适度集中环境事务管理权限,进一步优化环境事务管理机构设置以及人员队伍在不同层级政府间的配置,提高对碳排放的管控效率,另一方面需要打通省际壁垒,加快区域市场一体化建设,优化碳排放的区域配置,提高碳排放效率。     

The key elements analysis of Guangdong & Shenzhen ETS & tips for China national ETS construction

The only joint effort area of provincial and municipal governments resides in Guangdong Province and Shenzhen City in China’s carbon emission trading system (ETS) pilots, which characterize the national carbon ETS plots. The present study on the operating experience from this area has important reference value for the national carbon ETS. Analysis and comparison of the key elements show many differences in coverage, total allowance, allowance allocation, and MRV mechanism between Guangdong and Shenzhen carbon ETS. The present study provides the following explanation: (1) the design characteristics of carbon ETS (e.g. coverage, total quotas, the allocation, and MRV mechanism) depend on the local geographical conditions and policy goals. The differences of economic structure in Guangdong Province and Shenzhen City result in different coverage, which then result in differences in other management elements. (2) The operating state of the carbon market is affected by overall design of carbon ETS: in the case of tighter total allowance, lower proportion of China Certified Emission Reductions, and harsher punishment, the carbon market is relatively active, which intends to produce carbon financial market. Based on deep analysis of operation characteristics of carbon ETS in Guangdong and Shenzhen, the present study suggests that (1) the allowance should be allocated freely at the beginning stage and then gradually transited to the voluntary paid auction; (2) the allowances assigned to companies shall be linked up with their energy-saving objectives; (3) the output fluctuations and economic influence on the allowance allocation should be properly handled to maintain the fairness and consistence of allowance allocation standards; (4) stable public expectation is one of the key elements to maintain the regular operation of carbon ETS; (5) constrained carbon emission behavior outside ETS can contribute to social justice; and (6) the improvement of professional skills of relevant personnel in the enterprise and independent third party can enhance carbon emissions data reliability.     

基于LCA的废旧资源循环利用节能减排效果评估模式与方法研究——以吉林省某钢铁企业为例

促进废旧资源循环利用是加快推进我国生态文明建设,完成节能减排目标的必然选择。本文基于生命周期评价模式,从微观企业层面入手,构建产品全生命周期基准流程,引入能量输入与环境输出参数,建立废旧资源循环利用节能减排效果量化核算模型,评估再生产品的节能减排经济成效,并以吉林省某钢铁企业为例,评估"废钢-电炉"短流程和"铁矿石-高炉-转炉"长流程的能源、环境、成本差异,辨识影响废钢再循环节能减排效果的主要因素和重要环节。结果显示,再生钢铁全生命周期与原生钢铁全生命周期相比,节能588.48kgce/t,节能率为84%;主要污染物中SO2减排率最高,达92%;CO2总减排1 180.92 kg/t,减排率为67%;总成本却高出198元/t。其中,炼铁工序的节能量和减碳量最大,烧结工序SO2、NOx和烟(粉)尘减排量最大,焦化工序COD和氨氮减排量最大,回收、加工处理、炼钢环节节能量和减碳量以及SO2、NOx和烟(粉)尘减排量均为负。成本方面,再生钢铁生产成本高于原生钢铁308元/t,虽然再生钢铁由于污染减排可节省56元/t的排污费并获取54元/t的碳交易收益,但都不足以扭转电炉炼钢费用较高的现状。因此,国家应在电炉炼钢方面给予钢企及相关企业适当的财税扶持政策,在电价方面给予钢企一定的优惠或补贴,并完善废钢回收加工体系等,以促进废钢循环利用。基于LCA的废旧资源循环利用节能减排效果评估可以实现对产品生命周期全过程的资源、环境、成本的优化管理。     

Ecosystem services in coupled social–ecological systems: Closing the cycle of service provision and societal feedback

Both the ‘cascade model’ of ecosystem service provision and the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework individually contribute to the understanding of human–nature interactions in social–ecological systems (SES). Yet, as several points of criticism show, they are limited analytical tools when it comes to reproducing complex cause–effect relationships in such systems. However, in this paper, we point out that by merging the two models, they can mutually enhance their comprehensiveness and overcome their individual conceptual deficits. Therefore we closed a cycle of ecosystem service provision and societal feedback by rethinking and reassembling the core elements of both models. That way, we established a causal sequence apt to describe the causes of change to SES, their effects and their consequences. Finally, to illustrate its functioning we exemplified and discussed our approach based on a case study conducted in the Alpujarra de la Sierra in southern Spain.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0651-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

The New Zealand experience of varroa invasion highlights research opportunities for Australia

The Varroa mite (Varroa destructor) is implicated as a major disease factor in honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations worldwide. Honey bees are extensively relied upon for pollination services, and in countries such as New Zealand and Australia where honey bees have been introduced specifically for commercial pollinator services, the economic effects of any decline in honey bee numbers are predicted to be profound. V. destructor established in New Zealand in 2000 but as yet, Australia remains Varroa-free. Here we analyze the history of V. destructor invasion and spread in New Zealand and discuss the likely long-term impacts. When the mite was discovered in New Zealand, it was considered too well established for eradication to be feasible. Despite control efforts, V. destructor has since spread throughout the country. Today, assessing the impacts of the arrival of V. destructor in this country is compromised by a paucity of data on pollinator communities as they existed prior to invasion. Australia’s Varroa-free status provides a rare and likely brief window of opportunity for the global bee research community to gain understanding of honey bee-native pollinator community dynamics prior to Varroa invasion.     

Beaver-mediated methane emission: The effects of population growth in Eurasia and the Americas

Globally, greenhouse gas budgets are dominated by natural sources, and aquatic ecosystems are a prominent source of methane (CH₄) to the atmosphere. Beaver (Castor canadensis and Castor fiber) populations have experienced human-driven change, and CH₄ emissions associated with their habitat remain uncertain. This study reports the effect of near extinction and recovery of beavers globally on aquatic CH₄ emissions and habitat. Resurgence of native beaver populations and their introduction in other regions accounts for emission of 0.18–0.80 Tg CH₄ year⁻¹ (year 2000). This flux is approximately 200 times larger than emissions from the same systems (ponds and flowing waters that became ponds) circa 1900. Beaver population recovery was estimated to have led to the creation of 9500–42 000 km² of ponded water, and increased riparian interface length of >200 000 km. Continued range expansion and population growth in South America and Europe could further increase CH₄ emissions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0575-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Loss of traditional knowledge aggravates wolf–human conflict in Georgia (Caucasus) in the wake of socio-economic change

Reports of the damage from wolf attacks have increased considerably over the last decade in Georgia (in the Caucasus). We interviewed locals about this problem in two focal regions: the Lanchkhuti area (in western Georgia) and Kazbegi District (in eastern Georgia) where livestock numbers had increased by an order of magnitude owing to dramatic shifts in the local economies over the last decade. This coincided with expanding habitats for wolves (abandoned plantations, for example). We found that the perceived damage from wolves was positively correlated with a poor knowledge of wolf habits and inappropriate livestock husbandry practices. Our results suggest a loss of traditional knowledge contributes strongly to the wolf–human conflicts in Georgia. Restoring traditional, simple but good practices—such as protecting herds using shepherd dogs and introducing bulls into the herds—can help one solve this problem.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0580-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

陕北能源化工基地某工业园区水污染物排放总量控制研究

基于水污染物总量控制思路,以陕北能源化工基地某工业园区为研究对象,分析工业园区主要水环境问题及原因,分别对园区企业和集中污水处理厂提出排水水量、水质控制要求,从工程技术措施和管理手段上提出了明确的解决方案和要求。结果表明,各项减排措施实施后,COD、氨氮、石油类物质分别削减49.4%、71.0%、72.6%,园区排水总量控制在1.18万t/d,最终保证园区水污染物总量控制目标的实现。