三峡库区汛期极端降水非均匀性特征

利用极端降水量集中度和集中期讨论三峡库区汛期极端降水量的非均匀性分布特征。结果表明: 三峡库区极端降水量空间分布表现为西南部和东北部地区相对较少,中部、东南部相对较多。库区汛期极端降水集中度和集中期的空间差异不大,集中程度总体较差,东北部和西部地区极端降水相对集中,中部相对分散。库区极端降水主要集中在6月底和7月上中旬,东北部和西部偏西地区集中期相对较晚,中部地区集中期相对较早。库区汛期极端降水量的分配状况与同期极端降水量存在较好的关系,即极端降水量越少,则极端降水量越集中、集中期越早;反之极端降水量越多,则极端降水量越分散、集中期越晚,尤其是在库区东北部地区最为显著。三峡库区蓄水后极端降水集中程度在空间上一致性较好,表现为蓄水后更为分散;极端降水量和集中期则在空间上差异显著,大致表现为蓄水后东北部极端降水增加并延迟;西南部极端降水减少并提前     

CeMn氧化物催化剂的制备及其对甲苯的催化降解性能

采用草酸沉淀法合成了铈锰氧化物(CeMn氧化物)催化剂,在固定床反应器中考察了不同Ce-Mn摩尔比、空速对CeMn氧化物催化剂催化降解甲苯效果的影响,通过XRD、SEM、XPS等技术表征了催化剂的理化性质.实验结果表明:当n(Ce):n(Mn)=1:3时得到的Ce1Mn3催化剂降解甲苯的活性最佳,T50=198℃,T9...     

基于FA-BAS-ELM的海洋油气管道外腐蚀速率预测

为提高海洋油气管道外腐蚀速率预测的精度和效率,建立基于因子分析(FA)和天牛须搜索算法(BAS)的极限学习机(ELM)腐蚀速率预测模型。利用FA对影响因素数据集进行降维处理,确定预测模型的输入变量;建立ELM预测模型,并采用BAS对ELM模型的参数进行优化,避免参数取值随机性对模型预测性能的影响;以实海挂片试验为例,通过建模仿真评价模型的预测性能,并与其他模型进行对比分析。结果表明：FA-BAS-ELM预测模型的平均绝对误差(MAPE)仅为1.92%,决定系数R²高达0.994 9,相比于其他模型,该模型具有更优的预测性能。     

乌鲁木齐市一次冷空气过境天气对空气污染的影响分析

根据对2006年11月20～28日乌鲁木齐市出现冷空气过境天气过程的天气形式和主要气象要素及空气污染变化情况进行的分析,结果表明:冷空气过境天气前后,诸多气象要素发生了变化,冷空气导致逆温层的破坏和降水过程使各项污染物均得到有效的清除.通过此分析可为类似天气的空气质量预报提供思路.     

Chemical fluxes in time through forest ecosystems in the UK - Soil response to pollution recovery

Long term trend analysis of bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil solution elemental fluxes from 12 years monitoring at 10 ICP Level II forest sites in the UK reveal coherent national chemical trends indicating recovery from sulphur deposition and acidification. Soil solution pH increased and sulphate and aluminium decreased at most sites. Trends in nitrogen were variable and dependant on its form. Dissolved organic nitrogen increased in bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil solution at most sites. Nitrate in soil solution declined at sites receiving high nitrogen deposition. Increase in soil dissolved organic carbon was detected - a response to pollution recovery, changes in soil temperature and/or increased microbial activity. An increase of sodium and chloride was evident - a possible result of more frequent storm events at exposed sites. The intensive and integrated nature of monitoring enables the relationships between climate/pollutant exposure and chemical/biological response in forestry to be explored.     

Modeling the impacts of calcite precipitation on the epilimnion of an ultraoligotrophic, hard-water lake

A mass-balance model of calcite precipitation was developed to investigate the interactions of the varied processes governing the generation and fate of calcite in lakes. The model was used in conjunction with data to assess the evolution and impact of calcite precipitation for calcareous, ultraoligotrophic Torch Lake, Michigan (USA). This lake is an ideal setting for implementation of a baseline modeling study of calcite precipitation where the physical drivers could be evaluated without being dominated, as in many systems, by biological processes. The model provides a representation of calcite precipitation with particulate surface area changing over time, and demonstrates that it is possible for the change in water clarity to be explained by calcite precipitation employing standard optical models. Using the mass balance model to quantify the roles of the various chemical, biological and physical processes interacting in the lake's epilimnion, it was shown that the seasonal temperature rise and air-water CO₂ exchange drive calcite precipitation much more than primary production for this ultraoligotrophic system.     

IS IT REALISTIC TO DEFINE A 100-YEAR DROUGHT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT: The concept of recurrence interval has been used for years in engineering designs. Can the same concept be applied to the drought analysis? This paper uses the plotting position method to define drought of various recurrence intervals based on stream-flow data. The method of truncation level was applied to the same data to examine the defined drought. Based on the method of truncation level, drought duration and its corresponding flow deficit were investigated. Eighteen flow gage stations from the Scioto River Basin in Ohio were selected for the study. The results show that flows of 100-year droughts using the plotting position method are practically nil. On the other hand, flows of droughts using the truncation method are gradually decreasing with an increase in truncation level, where flows of 95 percent are approximately equal to those of two-year droughts defined by the plotting position. It is also shown that there is a strung correlation between drought duration and deficit.     

Long-term depletion of calcium and other nutrients in eastern US forests

Both harvest removal and leaching losses can deplete nutrient capital in forests, but their combined long-term effects have not been assessed previously. We estimated changes in total soil and biomass N, Ca, K, Mg, and P over 120 years from published data for a spruce-fir site in Maine, two northern hardwood sites in New Hampshire, central hardwood sites in Connecticut and Tennessee, and a loblolly pine site in Tennessee. For N, atmospheric inputs counterbalance the outputs, and there is little long-term change on most sites. For K, Mg, and P, the total pool may decrease by 2%–10% in 120 years depending on site and harvest intensity. For Ca, net leaching loss is 4–16 kg/ha/yr in mature forests, and whole-tree harvest removes 200–1100 kg/ha. Such leaching loss and harvest removal could reduce total soil and biomass Ca by 20%–60% in only 120 years. We estimated unmeasured Ca inputs from rock breakdown, root-zone deepening, and dry deposition; these should not be expected to make up the Ca deficit. Acid precipitation may be the cause of current high leaching of Ca. Although Ca deficiency does not generally occur now in acid forest soils, it seems likely if anthropogenic leaching and intensive harvest removal continue.     

PREDICTING MEASUREMENT ERROR OF AREAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DURING EXTREME EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The areal mean precipitation (AMP) over a catchment is normally calculated using point measurements at rainfall gages. Error in AMP estimates occurs when an insufficient number of gages are used to sample precipitation which is highly variable in space. AMP error is investigated using historic, severe rainfalls with a set of hypothetical catchments and raingage networks. The potential magnitude of error is estimated for typical gage network densities and arrangements. Possible sources of error are evaluated, and a method is proposed for predicting the magnitude of error using data that are commonly available for severe, historic rainfall.     

四川酸性物湿沉降模式及预测

酸沉降是一复杂的大气物理和化学过程，涉及诸多复杂影响因素。目前，我国酸雨湿沉降模式还仅限于模拟云下洗脱成酸过程，而对云中的成酸过程还未进行深入研究，这不仅在理论上不完善，而且更重要是在许多情况下与我省实际情况不符。本课题针对四川省特定的地理，气象特点和严重的大气污染情况，并借鉴国外研究成果，提出了考虑酸性沉降的云中和云下成酸过程和各种影响因素的综合酸雨湿沉降模式，并根据此模式来估算和预测四川省酸雨