西安市大气降水的主要化学组分及其来源

为认识西安市大气降水主要化学组分的现状,对2019年西安市市区和郊区大气降水样品的pH值、电导率、水溶性离子和重金属的质量浓度、湿沉降通量和来源进行了研究.结果表明,西安市冬季大气降水pH、电导率、水溶性离子和重金属浓度均高于其它季节.降水中主要的水溶性离子为Ca²⁺、 NH⁺₄、 SO■和NO^-₃,其之和占总离子浓度的(88.5±2.8)%;市区和郊区主要重金属是Zn和Fe、 Zn和Mn,其之和分别占总金属浓度的(54.0%±3)%和(47.0%±8)%.市区和郊区降水中水溶性离子的湿沉降通量分别为(253.2±58.4)mg·(m²·month)^-1和(241.9±61.1)mg·(m²·month)^-1,呈现出冬季高于其他季节的特点;重金属的湿沉降通量分别为(86.2±37.5)mg·(m²·month)^-1和(88.1±37.4)mg·(m...     

长江流域径流模拟及其对极端降雨的响应

研究流域径流量变化可为水资源科学调配、利用开发、水旱灾害防治、水环境污染整治和国民经济可持续发展等提供重要依据.但近年来受全球变暖影响,极端气候事件,尤其是极端降雨的发生频率和强度出现了变化,直接或间接影响径流量变化.运用SWAT模型模拟1965~2019年间长江流域径流时空变化规律,分析了不同极端降雨条件下径流对降雨的响应.结果表明,1965~2019年间长江流域径流变化并不显著,流域总径流和中下游径流均经历了"枯-丰-枯-丰"4个阶段.极端降雨情景模拟发现,50 a一遇极端降雨下,长江上、中和下游代表性子流域日均径流变化率分别为6200%、21%和15%,月均径流变化率为355%、5%和1.3%,年均变化率为78%、1%和0.24%.而100 a一遇极端降雨下,3个子流域日均径流变化率分别为8000%、25%和17%,月均径流变化率为437%、7%和1.5%,年均变化率为96%、1.2%和0.28%.研究结果可为流域水资源管理和利用及洪涝灾害预测与防控等提供理论依据.     

An assessment of historical change in two northern Minnesota lakes

Two northern Minnesota lakes that had been studied in detail 22 years earlier (1958) were restudied to determine the extent of alteration in ecological conditions. Approximately one year after the original investigation, a coal-fired power plant, which incremented sulfate loading by about 6 kg/ha-yr, began operation nine miles away. These lakes lie within a region judged susceptible to acidic precipitation, though each lake, based on its buffering capacity, would be judged only moderately sensitive. In spite of the influence of this plant and other anthropogenic inputs, the change in lake ecology was apparently minimal. Water clarity decreased in both lakes and some alteration in zooplankton community structure was observed. The long-term utility of lake surveys depends upon how carefully and completely conditions can be reconstructed from records and reports. Past surveys generally omit measures of variability for the data, allowing only qualitative comparisons to be drawn. In order to judge the graded responses of aquatic ecosystems, necessary to sound management, quantitative measures are needed.Deceased.     

MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION FOR DAILY HYDROLOGIC MODELING IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS1

ABSTRACT: A procedure using detrended kriging has been developed to calculate daily values of mean areal precipitation (MAP) for input to hydrologic models. The important features of this procedure that overcome weaknesses in existing MAP procedures are: (1) specific precipitation-elevation relationships are determined for each time period as opposed to using relationships based on climatological averages, (2) spatial variability is incorporated by estimating precipitation for each grid cell over a watershed, (3) the spatial correlation structure of precipitation is explicitly modeled, and (4) station weights for precipitation estimates are determined objectively and optimally. Detailed cross-validation testing of the procedure was done for the Reynolds Creek research watershed in southwestern Idaho. The procedure is suitable for use in operational streamflow forecasting.     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY IN SUSPENDED SEDIMENT YIELDS OF NORTH ISLAND BASINS,NEW ZEALAND1

ABSTRACT: Specific annual suspended sediment yields and their standard deviations are presented for 47 basins of North Island, New Zealand. Most of the variance in yields is explained by catchment mean rainfall. Rivers with similar flow range have similar suspended sediment concentration ratings, independent of differing watershed lithology and regolith, except for six basins having an abundance of soft fine sediments. Prediction equations for yield and its standard deviation are derived for four essentially arbitrary regions. AU feature rainfall as the independent variable. Differences between regions may owe to variations in intensity, frequency, and duration patterns of storms and, in one area, to bed material size as well. The temporal distribution of annual yields from a basin m be modeled by a two-parameter lognormal function: the prediction equations above may be used to evaluate this function at a site for which suspended sediment data are unavailable.     

冷空气在北上台风“利奇马”致灾暴雨中的作用分析

利用NCEP逐6 h再分析资料、地面加密观测、探空、雷达资料,分析得出“利奇马”致灾暴雨是在长时间稳定维持的天气尺度环流背景下形成的。冷空气在降水所起的作用表现在:(1)长时间维持的弱冷空气与偏南暖湿气流交汇形成了边界层辐合线,辐射升温和暖湿气流的输送加大了辐合线两侧的温度和露点梯度,在高温高湿的有利环境下,对流在辐合线附近强烈发展。(2)高空槽后冷空气由“利奇马”环流西北侧渗入,先后形成3个冷平流中心,分别对应3个阶段的降水。(3)冷暖空气在降水区的持续辐合抬升作用增强了降水,最强降水时段发生在锋区垂直方向坡度最大的时段。(4)水平锋生有利于水汽输送和辐合抬升,垂直锋生有利于对流不稳定能量的累积和触发。冷空气形成的水平辐合和抬升造成大范围上升运动,使得锋生和垂直锋消同时存在,最强降水时段发生在水平锋生最强的时段。     

A model of rainfall redistribution in terraced sandy grassland landscapes

A simple model of rainfall redistribution within a terraced sandy grassland landscape has been developed. The model assumes that rainfall redistribution is driven by rainfall impulses and is controlled by characteristic field capacity of soils. When the rainfall intensity is large enough to render soil water content greater than its characteristic field capacity, the excessive soil water can drain very quickly by means of large amounts of non-capillary pores of sandy soils or by means of surface runoff. Exponential distribution of rainfall impulses was assumed and tested with measured daily rainfall at two meteorological stations in the sandy grassland area of north China. The model was solved to give the equivalent rainfall at each terrace in the landscape.     

Mass balance modeling of arsenic processes in cropland soils

This study delineated the mathematical forms for the reactions involved in the mass balance of As in cropland soils. Even mathematically simplified, many model parameters are required to define the reactive processes involved. Example simulations were conducted based on the range of parameter values and initial conditions derived from published literature. The outcomes showed that the As inputs due to fertilizers and irrigation water caused total As content of the root zone to gradually increase over time. The plant uptake and leaching were equally important as pathways for removal of the added As. In turn, the dissolution kinetics of the mineral phase and the distribution coefficient of the adsorbed phase affected the availability of the As for plant uptake and leaching. Parameters based on laboratory-derived data on the dissolution of As mineral phase, mineralization and oxidation of As(III), and the As plant uptake however appeared to overestimate the As transformations in soils. While the development of mathematical model was a straightforward process, its application to realistic situations was hindered by difficulties of defining model parameter values with confidence. Current knowledge on the processes and reactions of As transformation in the soil–plant system is inadequate to calibrate or validate the model. Studies are needed to understand the kinetics of soil As mineral dissolution and precipitation and the dynamics of root growth and As uptake by plant in soils.     

丽水小盆地型城市酸雨现状及成因分析

根据浙江省丽水市 1 986— 2 0 0 2年酸雨监测数据 ,对该市酸雨污染的现状特征及成因进行了分析。结果表明 ,丽水市酸雨污染严重 ,并呈逐年加重的趋势。冬、春季酸雨率高 ,降水 pH值低 ;降水的主要离子SO42 -与NO-3比值逐年下降 ,说明大气污染有从煤烟型转为煤烟型与机动车尾气混合型的趋势 ;煤耗量、地型地貌特点、低空逆温层频率、地面弱风频率对酸雨率和降水 pH值有明显的影响。     

Bayesian analysis under ordered functions of parameters

Ordered parameter problems arise in a wide variety of real world situations and are dealt with extensively in the literature. Traditional frequentist methods for dealing with these problems are rather complicated theoretically, especially when sample sizes are small. Bayesian methods are not widely used because high dimensional numerical integration is often required. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide alternatives to such numerical integration and also deal with ordered parameter problems in a straightforward manner. Little is known about the situation where functions of parameters are ordered. Such problems may seem to be of little practical concern initially, but one can readily see their importance in situations where ordering is placed on the means and variances of several normal or Gamma populations. For the Gamma distribution we will present real examples where we will analyze monthly precipitation data from San Francisco, California and Oakland Mills, Iowa. For the San Francisco data we will simultaneously order both monthly precipitation means and variances. For the Iowa data we will place ordering on seasonal average while still estimating monthly means. Our results show that we would obtain sharper, more accurate inference when order restrictions are employed.