Total gaseous concentrations in mercury in Seoul, Korea: Local sources compared to long-range transport from China and Japan

Total gaseous mercury (TGM) and carbon monoxide (CO) were measured every 5 min and hourly, respectively, in Seoul, Korea, from February 2005 through December 2006. The mean concentrations of TGM and CO were 3.44 ± 2.13 ng m⁻³ and 613 ± 323 ppbv, respectively. TGM and CO concentrations were highest during the winter and lowest during the summer. In total, 154 high TGM concentration events were identified: 86 were classified as long-range transport events and 68 were classified as local events. The TGM and CO concentrations were well correlated during all long-range transport events and were weakly correlated during local events. Five-day backward trajectory analysis for long-range transport events showed four potential source regions: China (79%), Japan (13%), the Yellow Sea (6%), and Russia (2%). Our results suggest that measured ΔTGM/ΔCO can be used to identify long-range transported mercury and to estimate mercury emissions from long-range transport.     

国外应急管理体系的发展现状及经验启示

叙述了应急管理的基本概念,分析了国外应急管理体系的发展现状。从19个方面完整描述了值得我国借鉴的国外应急管理体系建设经验及启示。最后得出,应从长计议,奋力开拓,全面开创我国政府应急管理体系的新局面,加快我国应急管理体系的建设。     

Analysis of Extreme Summer Rainfall Using Climate Teleconnections and Typhoon Characteristics in South Korea1

Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modulates the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Traditional methodologies for hydrologic frequency analysis are not devised to account for variation in the exogenous teleconnections. Flood frequency analysis is further plagued by the assumptions of stationary in the causal structure as well as ergodicity. Here, we propose a dynamical hierarchical Bayesian analysis to account for exogenous forcing that govern the summer season rainfall. The precursors for Korean summer rainfall at different frequencies are identified utilizing wavelet and independent component analyses. The sea surface temperatures, the ensemble of rainfall predictions by General Circulation Model, in addition to the typhoon attributes were found to have direct correlation with extreme rainfall events and were used as inputs to the logistic regression model. The model parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the resulting posterior distributions associated with individual inputs are analyzed to advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal impact of the teleconnections. Eight rainfall stations throughout Korea are considered in this analysis. We demonstrate that the probability of occurrence of extreme events could be successfully projected at a 90% rate of correct classification of extreme events.     

1960~2010年长江流域极端降水的时空演变及未来趋势

本文采用长江流域内分布较均匀、无缺测站点的1960~2010年逐日降水资料,借助趋势和突变分析、R/S分析和水文频率分析等方法,研究该流域极端降水的时空演变特征和未来趋势。结果表明：（1）长江流域区域平均气候平均降水量（PAV）、简单日降水强度（PINT）、强降水贡献率（PQ95）、强降水阈值（PF95）、最大1日-10日降水量（PX1D-PX10D）基本均呈上升趋势,中下游各极端降水指数均大于上游,同时,中下游的各指数年际变化比上游更剧烈。（2）PAV与PF95的空间分布类似,但前者在流域中部地区下降、两侧上升,而后者为中部上升、两侧下降;PINT与PQ95的空间分布相似,均为大部分地区呈上升趋势,仅西北部下降。PX1D-PX10D总体上以上升为主,但随着持续时间的增长,下降的区域有明显的扩大,而上升的区域有明显的缩小。（3）未来长江流域极端降水将以现有趋势继续发展,并将以上升趋势为主,流域洪涝灾害风险加大。（4）遂宁站PX1D、安化站PX10D极端降水的频率分析表明,直接采用整体数据计算设计降水量会使结果偏于不安全,对于较长重现期的设计降水表现更显著,因此对于极端降水量发生显著变化的情况需要深入研究,探讨更好的设计降水估计方法。     

Wireless alerts for extreme weather and the impact on hazard mitigating behavior

Wireless alerts delivered through mobile phones are a recent innovation in regulatory efforts toward preparation for extreme weather events including flash floods. In this article, we use difference-in-differences models of the number of car accidents from days with government issued alerts for flash flood events in Virginia. We find that wireless alert messages for flash flood warnings reduced car accidents by 15.9% relative to the counterfactual with non-wireless alert protocols. We also use a regression discontinuity model to analyze hourly traffic volume data immediately before and after a flash flood warning message is issued. We find that traffic volume is reduced by 3.1% immediately following the issuance of a wireless alert relative to before the alert. These results imply that wireless alert messages effectively reduce exposure to hazards associated with extreme weather.     

长江中下游夏季极端降水事件频次的统计降尺度模拟与预估

利用CMIP5三个耦合模式的历史模拟及不同情景预测结果、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和长江中下游观测降水资料,采用统计降尺度方法对长江中下游夏季极端降水频次进行模拟和预估。首先,通过计算相关的方法,获取建立统计降尺度预测模型所需的预测因子。提取的预测因子同时满足既是观测环流要素场影响极端降水的关键区域,又是模式要素场预报的高技巧区域两个条件;然后,结合挑选出的预测因子,利用多元线性回归方法建立长江中下游极端降水的统计降尺度预测模型,并对模型性能进行检验。交叉检验结果表明,此种统计降尺度方法能对过去长江中下游极端降水变化有较好的再现能力,且多个降尺度模型结果的集合能进一步提高降尺度方法的模拟技巧;最后,将建立的统计降尺度模型应用于CMIP5未来3种不同的排放情景来对极端降水进行未来预估,并对多模式结果进行集合。结果显示,统计降尺度模型预估未来几个年代际长江中下游夏季极端降水频次相对于1986~2005年呈增加趋势,21世纪中、后期高排放情景下极端降水频次增加幅度高于低排放情景。     

Direct and indirect effects of weather experiences on life satisfaction – which role for climate change expectations?

This paper deals with the effect of (1) damage experience from extreme weather events and (2) expectations concerning future climate change on subjective well-being (SWB). We use data from a large representative survey carried out amongst German households. The effect of experienced weather events on the SWB of the heads of households is significant only in the case of heat waves; the same cannot be said for storms, heavy rain, and floods. Concerns about future climate change in households have a substantial negative impact on current SWB. In addition, we divide the impact of experience into direct and indirect effects of damage, deduced from the impact of experience on expectations regarding future climate change. Both direct and indirect effects of weather experiences are quantified. It becomes apparent that the indirect effect is significant, but small when compared to the direct effect.     

河北海岸带大雾特征分析及天气概念模型

利用2001—2010年乐亭、秦皇岛大雾监测的252个个例及Micaps3．0常规资料,分析了河北海岸带大雾的时空尺度分布特征,初步建立大雾天气概念模型。研究结果显示：2001—2010年大雾年际变化不大,2005年达到日数最少为17次,2006年达到最多为34次;大雾日具有明显的月变化,一年当中各月均有大雾出现,其中以11~12月大雾日数最多,8~9月次之,其他各月较少;南到东南风、弱的均压场、适宜的海温均有利于产生大雾天气。     

淄博市空气污染物变化及其与气象条件的关系

近年来淄博市由于加强了对二氧化硫和粉尘等污染物排放企业脱硫除尘的监管,可吸入颗粒物和二氧化硫浓度呈现逐年下降趋势,而燃煤量和机动车保有量的逐年增加使氮氧化物浓度呈现波动式上升趋势;四季分明的气候条件使淄博市的空气污染程度在一、四季度高于二、三季度;同时污染物浓度和风速、湿度呈负相关,和温度、气压呈正相关。     

贵州降雨变化趋势与极值特征分析

利用1961—2004年逐日降雨资料,分析了贵州降雨强度、无雨天数、极值降雨的变化趋势及空间分布特征。利用Mann-Kendall法与反距离权重插值法对贵州近44年降雨时空变化趋势进行了分析。利用Gumbel分布拟合最大日降雨量的概率分布特征,并利用极大似然法进行分布参数估计,推求了极端(50年,百年一遇)降雨情形。结果表明,贵州近44年来汛期有雨日降雨强度、最大日降雨量、连续3日、5日、7日无雨的出现频率呈现明显的上升趋势;最大日降雨总体由南向北减少,连续无雨天气出现频率的增加幅度空间分布总体呈东高西低的趋势。