Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070

This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures, paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000–2070 based on linking the effects of global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios. Figures in color are available at     

Econometric analysis of the determinants of adoption of alley farming by farmers in the forest zone of southwest Cameroon

Slash-and-burn agriculture continues to expand in many parts of the forest zone of Cameroon. One alternative land use to slash-and-burn system is alley farming. This paper quantifies, using an econometric model, the factors determining farmers’ adoption and use of alley farming variants in southwest of Cameroon, based on a survey of 156 farmers in 11 villages in the region.The analysis showed that male farmers are more likely to adopt than women. Adoption is higher for farmers with contacts with extension agencies working on agroforestry technologies. Adoption is higher for farmers belonging to farmers’ groups. Adoption is lower for farmers in areas with very high population pressure, as farmers in such areas may have greater labor productivity from use of less labor intensive natural resource management technologies like chemical fertilizers. Adoption is higher for farmers in areas facing fuel wood scarcity. Farmers have made adaptations to the conventional alley farming technology recommended by researchers, the most significant adaptation being the introduction of fallow periods into the system. Farmers use alley farming as a land use option, not as a replacement for the slash-and-burn system, since land supply is still relatively elastic. Achieving increased impact with alley farming variants requires effective targeting. Results showed that econometric modeling using farmer and village characteristics, socioeconomic and institutional variables can lead to more effective targeting to farmers and locations where higher adoption rates may occur.     

我国农业与农村可持续发展的制度创新

我国农业与农村可持续发展的核心问题是农民收入问题。只有切实提高农民的收入水平。才能有效地增加农民购买力，从而增加农业生产资料的投入。进而保证粮食增产。我国农业与农村可持续发展存在的两个矛盾是小农经济与市场经济社会化的矛盾以及小农经济与科技化之间的矛盾。面临的两个分离是家庭经济与集体经济的分离以及传统供销合作社与农民利益的分离。增加农民收入的规模经济论与乡镇企业论的确有成功的典范．但是。对我国更多的农村地区来讲．不具有普遍意义。我国农业和农村可持续发展的关键有两个．一是符合区域特色的区域农业专业化．二是通过专业合作社的制度创新．将分散的家庭组织起来．以解决家庭小生产与大市场之间的巨大矛盾。     

川江流域的土壤退化与防治

川江流域地区土壤退化按肥力因素分类，并以专家系统确定的指标分类统计表明：土壤物理性退化中以水分不调、过砂和板结化较严重；土壤结构性退化中，以土层浅薄化较显著；土壤营养性退化中，以缺硼、钼、磷较突出，成因主要是生态脆弱、土壤侵蚀作用和过渡开发利用，据此提出了防治退化的基本措施。并从持续发展角度提出了适应该区土壤退化特点的持续农业系统。     

三峡库区大农业的自然环境现状与预警分析

根据系统序化的观点，分析了库区大农业主要环境因子的具有代表性指标的数量和警式线，并进行了对比，发现它们都处地逆向演替或退化之中。这对三峡水库和库区大农业均十分有害。说明库区大农业的环境恶劣或恶化，应处于警式状态之中。其主要原因是长期向自然过度索取，以牺牲环境为代价，发展人口和物质的生产。建议进一步研究大农业及其环境的调控；把对环境的逐步补救和防止新的破坏结合起来，开展新的生态建设工程。     

可持续农业和农村发展试验区的实践──以湖南省娄底地区为例

湖南省娄底地区是我国可持续农业和农村发展（SARD）试验示范区之一，六年来的研究与实践缓解了经济社会发展与资源环境之间的矛盾，使该地区初步走上了农业与农村可持续发展的道路。     

长江沿江地区跨世纪农业持续发展战略

分析了长江沿江地区农业自然资源优势，农业在全国的战略地位，指出农业持续发展面临的挑战，并结合区域农业持续发展的前景，提出了农业持续发展的宏观战略。     

关于中国农村剩余劳动力数量的估计

本文结合中国农业生产实际，运用农业技术需求法估算了相关年份第一产业劳动力投入量，在此基础上结合第5次人口普查和第一次农业普查资料，估算了中国农村劳动力二、三产业就业量及剩余劳动力数量，并据此提出了相关政策建议。     

农业开发与农业生态环境的保护和建设

本文分析了农业开发中存在的四个主要环境生态问题,及其对农业生产的严重制约,提出了当前农业综合开发过程中生态环境治理、保护和建设的6项基本对策。     

Agroecology in the tropics: Achieving a balance between land use and preservation

Agroecology is the application of ecological concepts and principles to the design and management of sustainable agricultural systems. An agroecological approach to agriculture has special importance in the humid tropics where agricultural development and the preservation of tropical forests are most often in direct conflict. It is proposed that a more sustainable approach to development is needed, where agroecosystems depend on low external inputs, function more on the use of locally available and renewable resources, have benign impacts on the environment, and are based on the knowledge and culture of the local inhabitants. Examples of traditional agroecosystem management in Mesoamerica that can provide this basis are presented. The preservation of both biological and cultural diversity are integral to the long-term sustainable management of natural resources in the tropics.