SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS,CALIBRATION, AND VALIDATIONS FOR A MULTISITE AND MULTIVARIABLE SWAT MODEL1

The ability of a watershed model to mimic specified watershed processes is assessed through the calibration and validation process. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model was implemented in the Beaver Reservoir Watershed of Northwest Arkansas. The objectives were to: (1) provide detailed information on calibrating and applying a multisite and multivariable SWAT model; (2) conduct sensitivity analysis; and (3) perform calibration and validation at three different sites for flow, sediment, total phosphorus (TP), and nitrate‐nitrogen (NO₃‐N) plus nitrite‐nitrogen (NO₂‐N). Relative sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify parameters that most influenced predicted flow, sediment, and nutrient model outputs. A multi objective function was defined that consisted of optimizing three statistics: percent relative error (RE), Nash‐Sutcliffe Coefficient (R_NS²), and coefficient of determination (R²). This function was used to successfully calibrate and validate a SWAT model of Beaver Reservoir Watershed at multi‐sites while considering multivariables. Calibration and validation of the model is a key factor in reducing uncertainty and increasing user confidence in its predictive abilities, which makes the application of the model effective. Information on calibration and validation of multisite, multivariable SWAT models has been provided to assist watershed modelers in developing their models to achieve watershed management goals.     

DISTRIBUTED RUNOFF FORMULATION DESIGNED FOR A PRECISION AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE MODELING SYSTEM1

A precision scale landscape model designed for agricultural applications is described in this paper. The Precision Agricultural Landscape Modeling System (PALMS) is a combination of two process‐based models: a diffusive wave runoff model with ponding (described in detail) and a biosphere model with a crops module (briefly reviewed). Several innovations, including numerical formulations for the hydrologic properties of the soil surface with crusting, slope/tillage angle interactions, and change of roughness and detention storage with cumulative precipitation have been included. The model is compared to observations on one 1.8 ha field planted with maize and soybeans during four growing seasons, and one 24 ha field planted with maize during one growing season. Daily average soil moisture is simulated well (within 5 percent volumetric), except in extended runoff/ponding episodes. Physical processes not simulated in the model suggest possible explanations for model errors. Planned improvements for PALMS are also presented.     

热带农业与热带旅游业的共生发展模式

本文结合海南特区农业与旅游业资源的特点，提出热带农业与热带旅游业共生发展的理论，分析了其发展的可能性与必要性，并对共生发展的有效模式进行了探讨，提出了搞好海南特区两大产业共生发展的对策．     

Linking Ecological Sustainability and World Food Needs

Ecological approaches to agriculture can provide useful guidelines for addressing world food needs, while avoiding adverse environmental and social impacts. Experiments in both natural and agricultural ecosystems suggest that systems with high plant diversity may be more productive, more stable and more resilient than species-poor systems. In addition, systems with high plant diversity support higher levels of biodiversity in other functional groups, which may enhance the productivity of the plant component. Given these benefits of diverse systems, various approaches for converting conventional high input agricultural systems to more sustainable systems are addressed. Andow and Hidaka's (1989) concept of production syndromes is considered in the context of conversion to sustainable agriculture.     

Ethical Opportunities in Global Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry: The Role for FAO

FAO has a unique and essential rolein addressing the ethical problems facinghumanity and in making these problems intoopportunities for practical resolution. A broadrange of ethical issues in agriculture,fisheries, and forestry were identified byanalysis of the literature and by interviewswith FAO staff. Issues include sharing accessto and preserving natural resources,introduction of new technology, conservatismover the use of genetic engineering, ethics inanimal agriculture, access to information, foodsecurity, sustainable rural development,ensuring participation of all people indecision making and in receiving benefits ofagriculture, reducing corruption, andinvolvement of private and public sectors indecision making. Rather than viewing theseissues as problems, they should be viewed asopportunities for debate, learning aboutothers' views, and resolution. The UnitedNations has an important role to play in howdecisions are made in the global ethical debatein food and agriculture. The ethical role ofFAO is to promote global food security,balanced conservation, management andutilization of natural resources, andsustainable rural development. FAO should fullyand publicly assume its ethicalresponsibilities, gathering and sharinginformation on ethics in its areas of mandate,acting as an interactive forum, and providingexpert guidance on policy options and choicesbased on practical ethical analysis.     

南京市旅游农业市场开发研究

立足于南京市旅游农业市场开发的现状和存在的问题，从客源地结构、农业旅游者决策行为、旅游方式、出游时间、旅游者对南京旅游农业资源评价等五个方面分析了当前南京市旅游农业客源市场状况。提出了相应的市场开发策略。     

BIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SACRAMENTO WATERSHED MANAGEMENT OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper brings together spatially and temporally explicit mechanistic models of hydrodynamic, water quality, and ecological processes with an economic model to examine water management alternatives for California's Sacramento River and Delta ecosystem, a large‐scale watershed. Overallocated water supplies in most years, combined with increasing demand for water for environmental purposes, have created a politically charged atmosphere and a need for quantitative assessment of the implications of policy alternatives. By developing and analyzing a common set of policy scenarios, this integrated framework allows us to consider tradeoffs between agricultural economic factors, water quality, and population dynamics for two at‐risk fish species. We analyze two rather extreme types of policy options; one involves structural modifications to change the flow of water within the watershed but no change in water diversions, while the other reallocates water from agricultural users to fish and wildlife. Results suggest that substantial environmental improvements could be made at a relatively modest cost to farmers (1 to 4 percent reductions in revenues) but that those costs could be significant locally. In addition to tradeoffs between farmers and environmental interests, results suggest that policy makers may need to balance competing environmental objectives.     

COST‐EFFECTIVE POINT‐NONPOINT TRADING: AN APPLICATION TO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Point‐nonpoint trading has been suggested as a relatively efficient approach for reducing nutrient pollution in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere. However, relatively little economic research has examined the design of trading programs involving nonpoint sources. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economics of several fundamental design choices for point‐nonpoint trading programs. The Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) in Pennsylvania as an example, although many of the insights should generally apply to other regions as well.     

新疆沙湾县生态农业建设与绿洲农业可持续发展探讨

新疆沙湾县国家级生态农业试点县建设实践证明,建立县级生态农业试点示范区,给新疆绿洲农业可持续发展积累了很好的发展模式和技术措施,是大力发展生态农业,促进农业生产良性循环,做好绿洲农业生态环境保护,合理利用绿洲农业资源,实现新疆绿洲农业可持续发展的最基本和必由之路。     

积极发展节水农业、改善塔河生态环境--走农业可持续发展的道路

新疆塔河流域农业发展面临严峻的水资源形势,发展节水农业,提高水分利用效率和效益势在必行。本文阐述了近年来塔河流域农业高效用水的有效途径及塔河流域发展节水型农业的新思路。