长江中游丘岗农业水资源态势与管理方略

长江中游流域丘岗区水资源能维持生态系统的水量平衡,支持农业的持续发展,但降雨时空分配不均,阻碍农业持续发展。在丘岗农业持续发展的水管理方面应强化工程措施,提高调蓄雨水的能力;广泛实施土地覆被、覆盖、培肥等生态措施;推行节水灌溉技术     

NEW METHODS OF MODELING WATER AVAILABILITY FOR AGRICULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE: THE U.S. CORNBELT1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on new methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural an water planning models to study future water availability for agriculture, an essential element of sustainability. The study is based on the integration of models of water supply and demand, and of crop growth and irrigation management. Consistent modeling assumptions, available databases, and scenario simulations are used to capture a range of possible future conditions. The linked models include WATBAL for water supply; CERES, SOYGRO, and CROPWAT for crop and irrigation modeling; and WEAP for water demand forecasting, planning and evaluation. These models are applied to the U.S. Cornbelt using forecasts of climate change, agricultural production, population and GDP growth. Results suggest that, at least in the near term, the relative abundance of water for agriculture can be maintained under climate change conditions. However, increased water demands from urban growth, increases in reservoir evaporation and increases in crop consumptive use must be accommodated by timely improvements in crop, irrigation and drainage technology, water management, and institutions. These improvements are likely to require substantial resources and expertise. In the highly irrigated basins of the region, irrigation demand greatly exceeds industrial and municipal demands. When improvements in irrigation efficiency are tested, these basins respond by reducing demand and lessening environmental stress with an improvement in system reliability, effects particularly evident under a high technology scenario. Rain-fed lands in the Cornbelt are not forced to invest in irrigation, but there is some concern about increased water-logging during the spring and consequent required increased investment in agricultural drainage. One major water region in the Cornbelt also provides a useful caveat: change will not necessarily be continuous and monotonic. Under one GCM scenario for the 2010s, the region shows a significant decrease in system reliability, while the scenario for the 2020s shows an increase.     

POLICY OBJECTWES AND ECONOMIC INCENTWES FOR CONTROLLING AGRICULTURAL SOURCES OF NONPOINT POLLUTION1

In this paper, we review the physical characteristics of agricultural non point pollution and discuss the implications for setting appropriate pollution control objectives and designing incentive-based pollution control policies. First, we discuss that policy objectives must be designed carefully to ensure positive economic net benefits can be expected from pollution control. Next, we review several classes of incentives and recommend the use of design-based incentives (i.e., incentives based on variable input use, management practices, and land use) for controlling non point pollution. Cost-effectiveness requires that incentives elicit three types of responses from farmers: (1) use variable inputs at appropriate levels, (2) adopt appropriate management practices, and (3) make appropriate land use decisions at the extensive margin of production. If a set of incentives fails to induce the correct responses, the resulting runoff levels and hence ambient pollution levels and damages will be too large relative to policy goals. A review of existing programs suggests that greater program coordination and improved targeting of incentives are needed for further water quality improvements. Alternatively, properly designed market-based systems may be effective alternatives. These systems would reduce overall pollution control costs by allowing markets to allocate point source and non point source control costs more efficiently.     

长江经济带污水处理设施减排效率与影响因素研究

污水处理设施作为废水排放的处理终端,在区域水环境治理的过程中发挥关键作用。本文以长江经济带沿线1117座污水处理设施为样本,以单位污水处理能耗作为污水处理设施的投入变量,BOD5等污染物的削减率作为产出变量,在考虑各类污染物对环境造成的异质性影响下利用WSBM模型对污水处理设施的减排效率进行测度,并运用CLAD模型对影响污水处理设施减排效率的外部因素进行研究。结果表明:长江经济带污水处理设施综合减排效率较低且差异较大,设施单位污水处理能耗冗余率较高以及对总磷污染物减排效果不理想是制约其减排效率提高的重要因素;长江经济带污水处理设施的减排纯技术效率总体呈现"东高西低",以上海、湖南、云南三省份形成"三极"的空间分布特征,而设施减排规模效率则呈现出"中部高、东西低"的空间分布格局;设施减排效率外部影响因素的驱动效应差异明显,并据此提出了排水管网合理规划、推进新型城镇化建设等对策建议。     

福建农业发展时段的可持续性分析及其启示

本文引入“狭义”可持续发展的概念,对福建近50年（1952－1998年）人口与粮食的动态变化一时序分析,探讨了福建农业发展的可持续性,最后提出几点建议,以期对福建农业发展有所裨益。     

Effects of Land Use Changes on the Landscape Composition: A Comparison Between Finnish and Russian Karelia

During the last 50 years the practising and intensity of agriculture and forestry have differed considerably between Finnish and Russian Karelia. We studied the effects of different land use practices on the landscape composition in the two countries using the road transect sampling along four study routes (99-121 km) between 1997 and 1999. Effective environmental management in Finland has resulted in more distinct agricultural land types, more even distribution of the different age classes of forests, and the higher abundance of coniferous forests. Fields (mean percentage of the landscape: Finland 28%, Russia 13%), clearcuts and sapling stands (15%, 6%), and young forests (23%, 9%) were more typical elements of the Finnish landscape, whereas settlements (9%, 13%), semi-natural grasslands (3%, 7%), and mature forests (20%, 49%) were more characteristic of the Russian landscape. Landscape-level differences between the two countries may have various effects on the diversity of fauna and flora inhabiting Finnish and Russian Karelia.     

Energy Analysis of Sugarcane Production in Morocco

An energy analysis of sugarcane production in small and large farms was made in Morocco. Total energy expenditures were 64.90 and 47.83 GJ/ha and energy outputs were 100.80 and 85.80 GJ/ha in large and small farms, respectively. The output/input energy ratios were 1.6 and 1.8. The energy intensity lies between 0.7 and 0.8 MJ/kg and is one of the highest among sugarcane producing countries. Irrigation is the most energy consuming operation with about 50% of total energy inputs. Electricity, fertilizers, fuel, and machinery are the main energy inputs. The influence of the different inputs is discussed and practical measures for energy saving and environmental conservation based on energy analysis are discussed.     

RELATION BETWEEN FISH COMMUNITIES AND RIPARIAN ZONE CONDITIONS AT TWO SPATIAL SCALES1

ABSTRACT: The relation offish community composition to riparian cover at two spatial scales was compared at 18 streams in the agricultural Minnesota River Basin. The two spatial scales were: (1) local riparian zone (a 200 meter wide buffer extending 2 to 3 kilometers upstream of the sampling reach); and (2) the upstream riparian zone (a 200 m wide buffer on the mainstem and all perennial tributaries upstream of the sampling reach). Analysis of variance indicated that streams with wooded‐local riparian zones had greater fish species richness (means = 20 and 15, respectively) and Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) scores (means = 40 and 26, respectively) than streams with open‐local riparian zones. Streams with wooded‐upstream riparian zones tended (were not statistically significant) to have greater numbers of species (means = 19 and 15, respectively) and IBI scores (means = 33 and 28, respectively) than streams with open‐upstream riparian zones. There was no significant interaction between the riparian zone conditions at the two scales. This study suggests that maintenance of wooded riparian cover along streams could be effective in maintaining or improving fish community composition in streams draining heavily agricultural areas.     

工矿企业实施设备、设施本质安全化探讨

分析了企业生产过程中,设备、设施本质安全化的状况,认为企业安全工作的根本出路在于设备、设施本质安全化.提出了通过加强企业领导安全意识,提高生产系统的安全投入,在建设项目的设施过程中力争提高设备设施的本质安全化水平,抓好新建、改建、扩建工程项目的"三同时"管理和安全评价,生产单位通过认真做好生产过程中的维护管理等途径提高设备、设施本质安全化.     

A Long-Term Forecast Analysis On Worldwide Land Uses

Abstact More and more lands worldwide are being cultivated for food production while forests are disappearing at an unprecedented rate. This paper aims to make a long-term forecast on land uses worldwide and provide the publics, researchers, and government officials with a clear profile for land uses in the future. Data of land uses since 1961 were used to fit historical trajectories and make the forecast. The results show that trajectories of land areas can be well fitted with univariate linear regressions. The forecasts of land uses during the coming 25 years were given in detail.Areas of agricultural land, arable land, and permanent pasture land worldwide would increase by 6.6%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively in the year 2030 as compared to the current areas. Permanent crops land area all over the world is forecasted to increase 0.64% by 2030. By the year 2030 the areas of forests and woodland, nonarable and nonpermanent land worldwide would decrease by 2.4% and 0.9% against the current areas. All other land area in the world would dramatically decline by 6.4% by the year 2030.Overall the land area related to agriculture would tend to decrease in developed countries, industrialized countries, Europe, and North and Central America. The agriculture related land area would considerably increase in developing countries, least developed countries, low-income countries, Asia, Africa, South America, etc.Developing countries hold larger total land area than developed countries. Dramatic and continuous growth in agricultural land area of developing countries would largely contribute to the expected growth of world agricultural land area in the coming years. Population explosion, food shortage and poverty in the world, especially in developing countries, together caused the excessive cultivation of land for agricultural uses in the past years. Increasing agricultural land area exacerbates the climate changes and degradation of environment. How to limit the growth of human population is a key problem for reducing agricultural land expansion. Development and use of high-yielding and high-quality crop and animal varieties, diversification of human food sources, and technical and financial assistance to developing countries from developed countries, should also be implemented and strengthened in the future in order to slow down or even reverse the increase trend of agricultural land area. Sustainable agriculture is the effective way to stabilize the agricultural land area without food shortage. Through various techniques and measures, sustainable agriculture may meet the food production goals with minimum environmental risk. Public awareness and interest in sustainable agriculture will help realize and ease the increasing stress from agricultural land expansion.