Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

Optimal charges on river effluent from lumped and distributed sources

We propose a modelling framework for the design of a Pigouvian effluent tax, in an environmental management problem implicating several economic agents located in a river basin. The proposed charging system allows for the agents' geographical position relative to the river's sections, at which environmental standards are to be enforced, and takes into account the possible different market structures within which the agents are operating. In particular, we consider industrial agents competing on an oligopolistic market, and a set of farmers acting as price takers on a large market. A regional authority's goal is to induce agents to some sort of cooperation which would result in the satisfaction of the common environmental constraints. The economic process on one side, and the pollution transport and accumulation on the other, constitute two dynamic processes in two different time scales. As the economic process is much slower than the other process we can neglect the latter's transients and concentrate on the time invariant steady state solutions to the transportation equation. The model thus constructed has some noncooperative game and optimal control problem's features with space being the ‘running’ variable. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

用工业废水排放量预测地面水CODMn灰色方法研究

ＧＰＭ（１）灰色生长曲线常被用于等距时序环境系统的分析建模、非等距摆动空间序列方面的应用尚未报道。本文研究提出了将非等距摆动空间序列经过等距化处理的ＧＰＭ（１）线性回归优化建模方法采用该方法所建的非等距ＧＰＭ（１）模型用于工业废水量预测地面水ＣＯＤＭｎ的实例表明，该方法简捷，方便、精度高于回归分析，有较大实用价值。     

工作场所空气中硫酸雾（SO3）的分析

采用碘量法测定工作场所空气中的三氧化硫及硫酸雾，三氧化硫及硫酸雾经中性水吸收后与碘化钾和碘酸钾反应，析出的碘与淀粉指示剂作用产生蓝色，进行比色测定。     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

南通市冬季PM2.5中水溶性离子污染特征

根据南通市2016和2017年冬季大气多参数站自动监测PM2.5数据和在线离子色谱分析仪Marga监测的PM2.5中水溶性离子数据,分析了南通市冬季PM2.5中水溶性离子污染特征。结果表明,南通市2016和2017年冬季,ρ(PM2.5)分别为58和54μg/m 3,均高出其年均值(14μg/m^3);ρ(水溶性离子)总占ρ(PM2.5)百分比分别为74.5%和74.3%;二次离子ρ(NO3^-、SO4^2-和NH4^+)占ρ(PM2.5)百分比分别为66.8%和66.6%;各水溶性离子占比大小依次为:NO3^-、SO4^2-、NH4^+、Cl^-、K^+、Na^+、Ca^2+、Mg^2+。对ρ(NO3^-)/ρ(SO 4^2-)分析表明,移动源已经成为南通市冬季的主要污染源,且呈逐年增强趋势。对氯氧化率和硫氧化率的分析表明,南通市冬季存在较明显的二次污染,SO2的转化程度大于NO2。除Na^+和Mg^2+外,其他离子与PM2.5均呈显著相关性,NO3^-、SO4^2-与NH4^+之间的相关系数最高,Cl^-与除Na^+外的所有阳离子均呈显著相关性。     

太湖水质氮素质量浓度时空差异特征及影响因素分析

通过对2014—2016年湖体水质中氮素质量浓度分析,结合出入湖总氮浓度、水量、湖体水生生态等影响因素,发现太湖水体中总氮浓度呈现逐年下降的趋势,各监测点位总氮为0.530 mg/L～5.51 mg/L,时空分布不均,差异明显。时间上,总氮浓度表现为春季最高,夏季和秋季最低,且月均值变化曲线呈现出规律的正弦函数波形。空间上,总氮浓度大致表现出由西部湖区向东部湖区递减的趋势,呈现西部湖区﹥北部湖区﹥南部湖区﹥湖心区﹥东部湖区。要改善湖体水质,不仅要切断污染源,而且要加强水生生态功能修复。     

2017年上半年北京市及周边地区空气质量特征分析

依托北京市、廊坊市和保定市高密度的地面空气质量监测、气象要素监测以及PM_2.5化学组分监测和后向轨迹分析等手段，对2017年上半年三地的空气质量进行分析。研究发现：三地中北京市空气质量较好，保定市较差。分污染物来看，保定市SO₂浓度水平明显高于廊坊市和北京市，颗粒物PM₁₀和PM_2.5也呈现保定市最高、北京市最低的规律。从污染物日变化来看，CO、SO₂、NO₂、PM₁₀和PM_2.5呈双峰型分布，O₃呈单峰型分布。从区域整体分布规律来看，PM_2.5和SO₂呈现明显的"南高北低"特征。PM_2.5化学组分分析结果表明：1—4月燃煤对该区域空气质量的影响较大，5—6月机动车排放的影响更为凸显。后向轨迹分析结果表明：在2017年上半年到达北京市的气流中有24%来自于北京市南部，且这些气流多为低空传输，表明区域传输对于北京市空气质量具有一定的影响。     

铁路运输业污水治理系统分析

研究了乌鲁木剂铁路局系统污水治理污染控制方法及途径，提出了主要污染物为石油类，其最佳治理对策是：确定重点污染单位、污染源、用最低的治理投入，选择斜板隔油气浮工艺治理重点污染和次重点污染部门，得到较好的治理效果，否定盲目追求“零排放”的高投入方案。     

Estimation of the Thermal Sensitivity of a Dwelling to Variations in Architectural and Behavioural Parameters

The provision of energy for households is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the domestic sector. There is significant scope for energy savings and thus emission reduction in this sector. This paper constructs a bridge between thermal analysis and environmental assessment in the occupancy stage of the dwelling life cycle, approaching both methods as being on a common system Environment–Dwelling–Inhabitant. The importance of the local level in the thermal analysis and assessment of either a dwelling or an inhabitant's behaviour is demonstrated. It is shown that the researcher can choose between natural experiment, computer experiment and mathematical modelling to analyze the system. Such a choice is discussed for two particular methods of thermal analysis. Thermal Nomograms are the result of mathematical modelling, and the Energy Score Sheet is the result of a computer experiment in energy rating. Despite being developed for the purpose of thermal analysis, these methods can also be utilized for environmental assessment at the local level. The discussion centres on Australian conditions where the majority of the population resides in a relatively benign climate wherein behavioural alterations have significant potential for energy savings and environmental impact. The purpose of the paper is to emphasise benefits apart from energy minimisation to promote the use of energy efficient housing strategies.