全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。     

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin,Northern China1

Ji, Yuhe, Liding Chen, and Ranhao Sun, 2012. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 999‐1007. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00671.x Abstract: Water resources are becoming increasingly stressed under the influence of climate change and population growth in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of water supply stress is urgently needed to mitigate water crisis caused by water resource reallocation. Water supply and use data were compiled for the time period of 1998‐2003 in this synthesis study. The Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI) as defined as Water Demand/Water Supply was used to quantitate whether water supply could meet the demand of human activities across the study region. We found a large spatial gradient of water supply stress in the study region, being much higher in the eastern subbasins (ranging from 2.56 to 4.31) than the west subbasins (ranging from 0.56 to 1.92). The eastern plain region not only suffered more serious water supply stress but also had a much higher interannual variability than the western hilly region. The uneven spatial distribution of water supply stress might result from the distribution of land use, population, and climate. Future climate change and rapid economic development are likely to aggravate the existing water crisis in the study region.     

故障诊断专家帮助系统开发及其在电厂脱硝设备中的应用

总结SCR和SNCR两种脱硝系统中常见的21种故障,将人工智能专家系统与脱硝系统的专业知识、故障解决绑定.在Windows开发环境下,使用Visual Basis 6.0,以Access建立专家知识库和数据库,开发出脱硝设备故障诊断专家帮助系统软件.专家帮助系统的主要功能有:查询脱硝系统知识并及时更新数据库,现象分析,...     

西北地区水环境安全面临的挑战和对策

文章分析了西北地区目前水资源现状、水资源质量状况和开发利用等情况,并对水资源供需发展趋势作出预测。根据西北地区水环境安全面临的严峻形势,提出了构建西北地区水环境安全体系的对策和建议。     

关于“四沿”化工安全的战略性思考与探索

以基本能浓缩中国化工概貌的江苏省沿江、沿河、沿湖、沿海化工企业为背景,依据其形成和发展及基本概况,结合重大化工事故灾难,以安全与环境相耦合,对"四沿"化工安全进行了战略性思考,试图勾画临水化工本质安全的模型,提出在"四沿"地区构建化工本质安全化科技支撑体系的宏观构架,即建设"江苏省四沿区域化工本质安全和化工事故防范及应急系统"的思路、探索与实践。还提出了立法深化研究和技术标准制定、严格区域规划设计与建设的监督、强化监管执法力度等急需关注的问题。以江苏省"四沿"区域的化工安全为背景所提出的思路与对策,应该对整个华东地区乃至全国临水性化工企业安全具有重要的现实和借鉴意义,对我国高危行业的安全生产和环境保护有重大的示范效应。     

建筑物消防系统可靠性分析

为评估建筑物消防系统的可靠性,首先将系统分为探测报警系统和灭火系统等部分,再用事件树法分析事故发生时消防系统不同部分的反应情况.通过贝叶斯理论及历史统计数据得到系统失效率的不确定性概率分布,建立消防系统可靠性随时间变化的数学模型; 用蒙特卡罗方法模拟求得系统可靠性的时间函数并对模型的不确定性参数进行敏感性分析.该方法将统计数据与经验公式、理论方法相结合,并利用蒙特卡罗方法处理模型中的不确定性,不仅能够有效估计消防系统的可靠性,还可对其他类似系统的可靠性进行分析,并通过敏感性分析为进一步减少估计的不确定性提出合理建议.     

Impact of changed trophic status on the zooplankton composition in six water bodies of Dharwad district, Karnataka state (South India)

Morgan Island, located within the ACE Basin National Estuarine Research Reserve in South Carolina, is home to the only free-ranging colony of rhesus monkeys (Macca mulatta) in the continental United States. The purpose of this study was to assess environmental impacts of the monkey colony on water quality in adjacent tidal creeks and on island vegetation. Three tidal creeks were sampled: Morgan Creek, adjacent to the monkey colony; Back Creek, on Morgan Island not adjacent to the colony; and Rock Creek, on a nearby island unoccupied by monkeys. Temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, nutrients and fecal coliform bacteria were measured six times at three sites in each of these creeks, and vegetation change analysis was conducted in a geographic information system using satellite imagery. Results showed elevated fecal coliform concentrations in the Morgan Creek site immediately adjacent to the colony, though no samples exceeded the standard set for recreational water use. Ribotyping reconnaissance matched four Escherichia coli isolates from Morgan and Back Creeks to the monkeys, identifying the colony as one source of fecal coliform bacteria, though relative source loadings could not be quantified. Significant differences were not observed between ammonia or orthophosphate levels in Morgan Creek relative to the other creeks tested; and vegetation change analysis showed a 35% increase in canopy cover between 1979 and 1999. Overall, these results suggest that the rhesus colony’s environmental impacts are localized and minimal. Results from this study provide baseline data on Morgan Island and may be useful in management decisions regarding the future of the monkey colony.     

Monitoring urban growth and detecting land-cover changes on the Istanbul metropolitan area

Istanbul is the most populated city of Turkey with a population of around 10.58 M (2000) living on around 5,750 km². In 1980, the population was only 4.7 M and then it has been more than doubled in only two decades. The population has been increasing as a result of mass immigration. An urbanization process continues and it causes serious increases in urban areas while decreasing the amount of green areas. This rapid, uncontrolled, and illegal urbanization accompanied by insufficient infrastructure has caused degradation of forest and barren lands in the metropolitan area, especially through the last two decades. The watershed basins inside the metropolitan area and the transportation network have accelerated the land-cover changes, which have negative impacts on water quality of the basins. Monitoring urban growth and land cover change will enable better management of this complex urban area by the Greater Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (GIMM). A temporal assessment of land-cover changes of Istanbul has been documented in this study. The study mainly focuses on the acquisition and analysis of Landsat TM and Landsat GeoCover LC satellite images reflecting the significant land-cover changes between the years of 1990 and 2005. Raster data were converted to vector data and used in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). A database was created for Istanbul metropolitan area to plan, manage, and utilize statistical attribute data covering population, water, forest, industry, and topographic position. Consequently an overlay analysis was carried out and land use/cover changes through years have been detected for the case study area. The capability of Landsat images in determining the alterations in the macro form of the city are also discussed.     

Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries1

Gray, Stephen T., Jeffrey J. Lukas, and Connie A. Woodhouse, 2011. Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):702‐712. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00535.x Abstract: Drought, climate change, and shifting consumptive use are prompting a widespread reassessment of water availability in the Upper Colorado River basin. Here, we present millennial‐length records of water year (October‐September) streamflow for key Upper Colorado tributaries: the White, Yampa, and Little Snake Rivers. Based on tree rings, these records represent the first paleohydrological reconstructions from these subbasins to overlap with a series of Medieval droughts (∼ad 800 to 1300). The reconstructions show marked interannual variability imbedded in nonstationary behavior over decadal to multidecadal time scales. These reconstructions suggest that, even in a millennial context, gaged flows from a handful of years (e.g., 1977 and 2002) were extremely dry. However, droughts of much greater duration and magnitude than any in the instrumental record were regular features prior to 1900. Likewise these reconstructions point to the unusual wetness of the gage period, and the potential for recent observations to paint an overly optimistic picture of regional water supplies. The future of the Upper Colorado River will be determined by a combination of inherent hydroclimatic variability and a broad range of human‐induced changes. It is then essential that regional water managers, water users, and policy makers alike consider a broader range of hydroclimatic scenarios than is offered by the gage record alone.     

Disturbance regimes,resilience, and recovery of animal communities and habitats in lotic ecosystems

Disturbance regime is a critical organizing feature of stream communities and ecosystems. The position of a given reach in the river basin and the sediment type within that reach are two key determinants of the frequency and intensity of flow-induced disturbances. We distinguish between predictable and unpredictable events and suggest that predictable discharge events are not disturbances. We relate the dynamics of recovery from disturbance (i.e., resilience) to disturbance regime (i.e., the disturbance history of the site). The most frequently and predictably disturbed sites can be expected to demonstrate the highest resilience. Spatial scale is an important dimension of community structure, dynamics, and recovery from disturbance. We compare the effects on small patches (⩽1 m²) to the effects of large reaches at the river basin level. At small scales, sediment movements and scour are major factors affecting the distribution of populations of aquatic insects or algae. At larger scales, we must deal with channel formation, bank erosion, and interactions with the riparian zone that will affect all taxa and processes. Our understanding of stream ecosystem recovery rests on our grasp of the historical, spatial, and temporal background of contemporary disturbance events.