饮食业油烟道火灾事故概率的模糊事故树分析

根据常规事故树定量计算中基本事件概率的不确定性问题,通过引入模糊集的概念,将常规事故树中基本事件的发生概率模糊化,用三角形模糊数代替确定性发生概率,应用模糊数截集方法,推导了模糊事故树的相关算法.采用模糊事故树方法得到饮食业油烟道火灾事故发生概率,并进行了敏感性分析,找出对顶事件发生概率影响较大的基本事件,确认减小油烟道火灾事故发生的相关措施.研究表明,饮食业油烟道火灾事故概率的模糊事故树分析是切实可行的,有助于对饮食业油烟道火灾的认识、预防和扑救工作.     

基于CNN_LSTM模型的复杂支路故障电弧检测*

在低压交流配电系统中,当多支路并联的复杂系统的某1支路中出现串联电弧故障时,识别难度大幅提升。为了预防此类情况引发的电气火灾,提出1种卷积神经网络(CNN)与长短时记忆网络(LSTM)结合的串联故障电弧检测方法。首先,搭建实验平台用以采集不同负载在不同支路下发生故障时和正常工作时的干路电流数据;然后,构建CNN_LSTM模型并做出相应改进,将电流数据直接输入到模型中,由模型自主提取波形特征并进行分类。研究结果表明:该方法可以快速、准确地识别出电弧故障,准确率达99.04%以上,且能够较为准确地检测出是哪类负载所在的支路发生电弧故障,准确率达97.90%,可为复杂支路下的电弧故障识别研究提供参考。     

黄土高原典型林木根际土壤微生物群落结构与功能特征及其环境指示意义

通过研究黄土高原典型林木根际土壤微生物群落结构,为正确评价该生态恢复区土壤环境恢复状况提供理论依据.利用湿筛倾析法、涂平板法和BIOLOG法研究了陕北黄土高原4种典型林木丛枝菌根真菌(arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi,AMF)孢子密度与土壤微生物群落结构多样性.结果表明,沙棘AMF孢子密度为刺槐的2.24倍,顺序为沙棘>狼牙刺>柠条>刺槐,不同林木土壤细菌和放线菌数量达极显著差异(p<0.01),真菌数量差异不显著(p>0.05).同一林木土壤细菌对BIOLOG-ECO板中碳源的利用优势种类和利用程度呈现明显的差异性;主成分分析表明对主成分1和主成分2贡献大的碳源为14种和8种,柠条和沙棘土壤典型变量值的变异(离散)较小,而狼牙刺和刺槐土壤典型变量值的变异较大.相关性分析表明,AMF孢子密度与细菌数量、氨基酸类、多胺类和芳香化合物类碳源呈极显著正相关(p<0.01),与真菌数量、放线菌数量和细菌总代谢活性呈显著正相关(p<0.05),但是与羧酸类、糖类和多聚物类碳源相关性不显著(p>0.05).AMF孢子密度可以作为评价陕北黄土高原林木土壤细菌生理代谢类群及其多样性的环境生物学指标.     

武汉市主要绿化树种滞尘效应研究

本实验对武汉市城区主干道主要绿化树种的滞尘效应与叶表面结构进行了研究。结果表明：（1）同一尘源条件下,不同树种的滞尘能力差异显著。乔木中悬铃木滞尘能力较高,可达6.9345 g/m²;小乔木中紫薇和紫叶李是滞尘能力较高的树种,滞尘能力分别为1.9543 g/m²和1.8790 g/m²;灌木中红花檵木和杜鹃等有较强的滞尘能力,分别可达4.0373 g/m²和3.8875 g/m²;（2）利用扫描电镜观察叶表面结构发现：叶表具毛被、褶皱、较深的不规则网格等特征的树种滞尘能力较高,叶表平滑或叶表网格结构规则且较浅时滞尘能力较低;（3）同一树种在不同的尘源条件下滞尘能力差异显著,空气中颗粒物浓度越高,滞尘能力也越大。以车流量近似模拟尘源条件表明,滞尘能力与车流量呈正相关。     

气候变化对珙桐分布的潜在影响

分析气候变化对植物分布的影响,对气候变化影响下的生物多样性保护具有重要意义. 利用分类和回归树 (Classification and Regression Tree,CART)生态位模型,设定A1,A2,B1和B2 4种气候变化情景,模拟分析了气候变化对珙桐(Davidia involucrata Baill)分布的影响. 结果表明:随气候变化,珙桐目前适宜分布范围将减小,但新适宜及总适宜分布范围将扩大;珙桐适宜分布范围在模拟时段呈缩小趋势,在A1情景下减幅最大,B1情景下减幅最小. 气候变化后,由于珙桐目前适宜分布范围的东部、南部、北部、东北部和东南部地区缩小,而新适宜分布范围将主要向我国西部及西南部地区扩展,因此,目前适宜分布范围将被破碎化. 气温变化对珙桐分布范围的影响大于降水量的影响.      

海上油气田工程油气泄漏事故风险分析

以渤海某工程项目为例研究海上油气田工程油气泄漏的事故及其风险.文章指出井喷、平台火灾事故和海底管道泄漏是海上油气田工程油气泄漏的主要事故源,并通过类比性分析得到三种事故的发生概率.油气泄漏的最严重后果是溢油事故,文章对各种事故的溢油规模进行分析,并根据井喷、平台火灾和海底管道泄漏三种事故发生的概率和规模对其环境影响进行评价.     

基于故障物理和数理统计相结合的可靠性加速试验方法

目的 研究通过加速试验在较短时间内对高可靠性、小子样电子产品的可靠性进行评估的方法.方法 分析可靠性加速试验方案的特点,梳理可靠性加速试验方案制定的基本流程,通过结合数理统计和故障物理技术,研究加速应力的确定方法和加速因子的计算模型,给出加速试验条件及试验时间的确定流程以及相应的试验结果评估方法,并进行案例应用.结果 该方法克服了常规可靠性加速试验方案设计中仅依靠经验并需要大样本量的缺点,科学有效地解决了高可靠性、小样本产品的可靠性加速试验方案设计问题,形成了电子设备基于故障物理和数理统计相结合的可靠性加速试验方案设计方法,经验证合理可行.结论 该试验方法能够满足当前可靠性要求高、进度紧、受试样品有限的武器装备研制的需求.     

Forest-tundra larch forests and climatic trends

Climate-related changes that occurred in the Ary-Mas larch forests (the world’s northernmost forest range) in the last three decades of the 20th century have been analyzed. An analysis of remote-sensing images made by Landsat satellites in 1973 and 2000 has provided evidence for an increase in the closeness of larch forest canopy (by 65%) and the expansion of larch to the tundra (for 3–10 m per year) and to areas relatively poorly protected from wind due to topographic features (elevation, azimuth, and slope). It has also been shown that the radial tree increment correlates with summer temperatures (r = 0.65, τ = 0.39) and the amounts of precipitation in summer (r = ?0.51, τ = 0–41) and winter (r = ?0.70, τ = ?0.48), decreases with an increase in the closeness of forest canopy (r = ?0.52, p > 0.8; τ = ?0.48, p > 0.95), and increases with an increase in the depth of soil thawing (r = 0.63, p > 0.9; τ = 0.46, p > 0.9). The density of undergrowth depends on temperatures in winter (τ = 0.53, p > 0.8) and summer (r = 0.98, p > 0.99, τ = 0.9, p > 0.99) and the date of the onset of the growing period (r = ?0.60, p > 0.99; τ = ?0.4, p > 0.99) and negatively correlates with the amount of precipitation in summer (r = ?0.56, p > 0.99, τ = ?0.38, p > 0.99).     

Distribution of frost injuries in the wood of conifers

The distribution of frost injuries in earlywood and latewood, in different zones of stem (with respect to height, diameter, and circumference), and at the bases of large roots has been studied in Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) and Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) at the northern limit of their ranges (the Obsko-Tazovskaya forest-tundra). It has been shown that a high frequency of frost injuries, especially in spruce, is characteristic of the study region. Mass frost injuries occur only in thin trees, mainly in the lower part of stems. Guidelines for collecting and preparing wood samples for the study of frost injuries are proposed.     

Changes in the upper limits of tree species distribution in the Western Caucasus (Belaya River basin) related to recent climate warming

To estimate the response of tree vegetation to recent climate warming in the Western Caucasus, the population state of several tree species at the upper limit of their distribution has been estimated in three mountain massifs in the Belaya River basin. For this purpose, the average and maximum stem diameters, vitality, and age of trees have been determined in the transitional zone between middle-mountain and high-mountain beech-fir forests (1400–1700 m a.s.l.) and in crooked birch forests growing at the upper timberline (1810–2025 m). The upper limits of Acer platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Ulmus glabra, and Betula litwinowii have shown a tendency to rise. The upper limit of Abies nordmanniana has remained unchanged over the past few decades, which may be explained by a decrease in moisture supply during the warm season.