Cultural ecology of Whitethroat (Sylvia communis) habitat management by farmers: winter in farmland trees and shrubs in Senegambia

The presence of Whitethroats and their potential invertebrate prey in farmland trees and shrubs was investigated. The management of this vegetation by farmers, and their motivation for that management, was explored using participatory techniques. Whitethroats were associated with Guiera senegalensis, the shrub species which supports most caterpillars and spiders. Farmers reported declines in trees and shrubs since the 1950s, loss of fallow areas, declines in soil fertility and crop yields, and increases in the use of fire for clearing fields. Trees are valued by people for their cultural and medicinal uses and some species used by Whitethroats and other birds have potential for restoring soil fertility, although this was not recognised by farmers. More sustainable use of savanna farmland could have both agronomic and wider conservation benefits, and the provision of information that accommodates farmers' cultural and economic incentives could benefit both farmers and wildlife.     

Ecological Variation in the Morphological Structure of the Crown in Siberian Stone Pine at the Timberline

The structure of the crown and branching; the growth, development, and ontogeny of branches; and organogenesis and growth of female shoots in the model Siberian stone pine trees were studied in four types of habitats at the timberline in the central Altai Mountains (1700–2170 m a.s.l.). The results provided evidence that the ecological forms of trees appear due to changes in the pattern of branching as well as to the decreased rate of vegetative (primarily apical) growth. The diameter of the shoot pith is one of the most variable characters reflecting the deterioration of environmental conditions at higher elevations.     

Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long‐term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex‐situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species’ persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species.     

基于人差错纠正能力的人因可靠性模型研究

根据人-机系统中人的操作行为具有时序性和差错可纠正性的特点,结合船舶舱室行为形成主因子,开展船舶舱室人因可靠性研究。以人因失误的时序性和差错纠正参数为基础,建立人-机系统中操作者行为模式和人因失误事件树模型。通过对人的差错纠正能力的分析,开展人因可靠性量化模型纠正理论研究。最后,以船舶舱室操作台的监控任务人因可靠性为例进行量化计算,定量评估操作人员执行任务的可靠度。     

A multiple additive regression tree analysis of three exposure measures during Hurricane Katrina

This paper analyses structural and personal exposure to Hurricane Katrina. Structural exposure is measured by flood height and building damage; personal exposure is measured by the locations of 911 calls made during the response. Using these variables, this paper characterises the geography of exposure and also demonstrates the utility of a robust analytical approach in understanding health‐related challenges to disadvantaged populations during recovery. Analysis is conducted using a contemporary statistical approach, a multiple additive regression tree (MART), which displays considerable improvement over traditional regression analysis. By using MART, the percentage of improvement in R‐squares over standard multiple linear regression ranges from about 62 to more than 100 per cent. The most revealing finding is the modelled verification that African Americans experienced disproportionate exposure in both structural and personal contexts. Given the impact of exposure to health outcomes, this finding has implications for understanding the long‐term health challenges facing this population.     

Changes in the upper limits of tree species distribution in the Western Caucasus (Belaya River basin) related to recent climate warming

To estimate the response of tree vegetation to recent climate warming in the Western Caucasus, the population state of several tree species at the upper limit of their distribution has been estimated in three mountain massifs in the Belaya River basin. For this purpose, the average and maximum stem diameters, vitality, and age of trees have been determined in the transitional zone between middle-mountain and high-mountain beech-fir forests (1400–1700 m a.s.l.) and in crooked birch forests growing at the upper timberline (1810–2025 m). The upper limits of Acer platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Ulmus glabra, and Betula litwinowii have shown a tendency to rise. The upper limit of Abies nordmanniana has remained unchanged over the past few decades, which may be explained by a decrease in moisture supply during the warm season.     

武汉市主要绿化树种滞尘效应研究

本实验对武汉市城区主干道主要绿化树种的滞尘效应与叶表面结构进行了研究。结果表明：（1）同一尘源条件下,不同树种的滞尘能力差异显著。乔木中悬铃木滞尘能力较高,可达6.9345 g/m²;小乔木中紫薇和紫叶李是滞尘能力较高的树种,滞尘能力分别为1.9543 g/m²和1.8790 g/m²;灌木中红花檵木和杜鹃等有较强的滞尘能力,分别可达4.0373 g/m²和3.8875 g/m²;（2）利用扫描电镜观察叶表面结构发现：叶表具毛被、褶皱、较深的不规则网格等特征的树种滞尘能力较高,叶表平滑或叶表网格结构规则且较浅时滞尘能力较低;（3）同一树种在不同的尘源条件下滞尘能力差异显著,空气中颗粒物浓度越高,滞尘能力也越大。以车流量近似模拟尘源条件表明,滞尘能力与车流量呈正相关。     

华北地区跨断层形变中短期异常特征研究

较系统处理了华北地区跨断层形变资料 ,对 1975年以来华北地区发生的部分强震、中强震震前出现的跨断层形变异常特征进行了分析 ,着重研究了其中短期预报指标及区域特征。跨断层形变主要异常特征为 :(1)异常出现具有同步或准同步性 ;(2 )异常形态各异 ;有趋势异常、年畸变异常、突变异常 ;(3)异常相对变化幅度以水平变化量为大 ;(4 )异常出现时间、幅度与震中距有一定关系 ;(5)强震前异常多出现在震前半年以上 ;(6 )异常初期地面倾斜背向震中 ,地面倾向震中即预示着进入短临阶段。同时对中短期预报指标做了初步归纳。     

Distribution of frost injuries in the wood of conifers

The distribution of frost injuries in earlywood and latewood, in different zones of stem (with respect to height, diameter, and circumference), and at the bases of large roots has been studied in Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) and Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) at the northern limit of their ranges (the Obsko-Tazovskaya forest-tundra). It has been shown that a high frequency of frost injuries, especially in spruce, is characteristic of the study region. Mass frost injuries occur only in thin trees, mainly in the lower part of stems. Guidelines for collecting and preparing wood samples for the study of frost injuries are proposed.     

海上油气田工程油气泄漏事故风险分析

以渤海某工程项目为例研究海上油气田工程油气泄漏的事故及其风险.文章指出井喷、平台火灾事故和海底管道泄漏是海上油气田工程油气泄漏的主要事故源,并通过类比性分析得到三种事故的发生概率.油气泄漏的最严重后果是溢油事故,文章对各种事故的溢油规模进行分析,并根据井喷、平台火灾和海底管道泄漏三种事故发生的概率和规模对其环境影响进行评价.