Conditions for a 100% renewable energy supply system in Japan and South Korea

In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, alternative energy paths have been discussed for Japan, but except for a few studies the assumption is usually made that Japan is too densely populated to be suited for a near-100% sustainable, indigenous energy provision. The studies emphasizing renewable energy have proposed the use of photovoltaic power as the main source of electricity supply, in combination with diurnal battery storage and supplemented by other renewable sources such as wind, hydro, and geothermal power. Here, an alternative approach is explored, with wind and derived hydrogen production as the main energy source, but still using solar energy, biofuels, and hydropower in a resilient combination allowing full satisfaction of demands in all sectors of the economy, i.e., for dedicated electricity, transportation energy as well as heat for processes and comfort. Furthermore, the possible advantage of establishing a regional energy system with energy interchange and coordinated management of the mix of renewable energy resources across a wider region is discussed. As the closest neighbor, the energy system of South Korea is considered, first regarding the possibility of a similar full renewable energy reliance, and then for possible synergetic effects of connecting the Korean and the Japanese energy systems, in order to be able to better cope with the intermittency of renewable energy source flows.     

Domino effect in process-industry accidents - An inventory of past events and identification of some patterns

The paper presents an inventory, perhaps the most comprehensive till date, of the major process-industry accidents involving ‘domino effect’. The inventory includes, among other relevant information, the sequence of accidents that had occurred in each domino episode. The information has been analyzed to identify several patterns which may be useful in further work on understanding domino effect and reducing the probability of its occurrence in future. A concept of ‘local domino effect’ has been introduced.     

氯离子对COD测定影响的探讨

研究含有高氯离子样品COD的测定,发现其中的白色沉淀为AgCl。实验结果证明,按照标准方法,当取样体积为20 mL时,按0.4 g HgSO4络合2 000 mg/L Cl-的比例投加掩蔽Cl-可以取得理想的效果。     

Methods to empirically estimate direct and indirect rebound effect of energy-saving technological changes in households

Energy efficiency policies have a special importance within carbon emission reduction policies to mitigate the climate change effects. However, potential reductions of energy consumption and, consequently, its resulting emissions, can be offset through the so called “rebound effect”. The concept of “rebound effect” refers to a set of mechanisms whereby the improvement of efficiency reduces the cost of the energy service and this results in the household energy consumption rising and totally or partially negating the reduction achieved by the energy efficiency improvement. This paper provides a methodology to estimate the static direct plus indirect rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements in the use of energy in households. It is based on the combination of econometric estimations of energy demand functions, re-spending modelling and generalised intput-output of energy modelling. It also provides estimations for Catalonia.     

加勒比松幼林追肥试验研究

加勒比松1a生幼林氮磷钾不同配比的追肥试验表明，追肥后6a，肥效都极显著；其中以第2a的效果最显著，最大树高、胸径、材积分别比不追肥增加39．1％～52．6％、45．4％～109．3％和34．1％～405．6％；6a后肥效下降，但追肥仍比不追肥的树高、胸径、材积增长8．7％～20％、10．9％～17．9％、31．5％～54．7％。氮磷钾配合施用的效果最佳，施氮磷而缺钾有负效应。当氮磷钾相同配比（N30P30K30）时有特殊的低效应。     

Uncertainties in the assessment of “significant effect” on the Dutch Natura 2000 Wadden Sea site – The mussel seed fishery and powerboat race controversies

Natura 2000, the nature network based on the European Bird and Habitat Directives, is explicitly grounded on ecological science. To acquire a permit under the Dutch Nature Conservation Act, an appropriate assessment of significant effects must be conducted based on the best available scientific knowledge. In this way the scientific and policy world are directly linked. This article focuses on ‘significant effect’ as a boundary object to analyse how science–policy interactions shape the meaning and assessment of significant effect and how these interpretations influence the decision-making process. To this end, two conflicts over significant effect are investigated: the conflict over the 2006-spring permit for the mussel seed fishery, and the 2011 permit for the planned World Championship powerboat races. In both cases nature organisations started a court process against the government-granted permits in protest to the “no significant effect” claim, stating that there was insufficient certainty for this conclusion. These conflicts are approached as controversies between discourse coalitions with different interpretations of the ecological knowledge. We show how significant effect became a focal point in the controversies, limiting the debate to ecological arguments and science-based expertise, but also creating options for parties to advance their protest by articulating uncertainties. Only uncertainty of incomplete knowledge was explicitly addressed, excluding ambiguity of values and unpredictability of the actual ecosystem. We suggest that acknowledging the value aspect in disputes on significant effect would leave more space for effective solutions of the problems under debate.     

Modulation of predator-prey interactions by the Allee effect

An Allee effect arising from density-dependent mating success can have significant impacts at the ecosystem level when considered in the context of predator-prey interactions. These are captured by a mathematical model for the exchange of biomass between a structured predator population (continuous weight distribution) and a resource. Because the predator’s mating success affects the amount of resources required for the production of offsprings and their future growth into mature organisms, it influences the flux of biomass between trophic levels. Under simple assumptions, the equations can be reduced to an equivalent unstructured predator-prey model in which the Allee effect modulates the predation rate: the mating probability multiplies the rate of predator growth as well as the rate of resource depletion. Implications of the Allee effect for the bifurcation structure and equilibrium densities are examined. The model is compared to a modified version in which the Allee effect instead modulates the assimilation efficiency, hence the mating probability does not appear in the dynamical equation for the resource density. Both models exhibit qualitatively similar dynamics. However, compared to the model in which the Allee effect modulates predation, the model in which the Allee effect modulates assimilation efficiency predicts (i) unrealistically inefficient resource assimilation when predator density is low, (ii) a higher risk of catastrophic extinction resulting from a change in the parameter controlling the strength of the Allee effect, and (iii) no possibility of an increase in population size when the density dependence is enhanced.     

上海世博会旅游时空效应及对策研究

重大旅游事件会对举办地及其周边产生巨大的旅游效应,作为经济、科技奥运的上海世博会的旅游效应是广泛深远的.分析了上海世博会旅游效应研究现状,提出旅游时空效应结合研究的必要性,再分析其前期、期间和后期旅游时间效应,以及对上海和长三角的旅游空间效应,最后提出相应对策.     

突发性灾难重大事件后公众对心理服务的认知和需求

为分析突发性灾难重大事件发生后公众对心理服务的认知和需求现状,采用随机抽样的方法在全国范围内抽取458名群众作为被试,使用“突发性灾难重大事件后公众心理服务认知和需求”调查问卷进行调查。结果显示:①不同性别人群、不同年龄阶段人群对“突发性灾难重大事件后心理服务”的认知存在显著差异(X^2=9.82,p<0.05;X^2=33.99,p<0.05)。②不同年龄阶段的人群对民众开展心理服务的必要性态度存在显著差异(X^2=15.84,p<0.05)。不同文化程度人群、不同性别人群对突发性灾难重大事件后心理服务活动的参与意愿存在显著差异(X^2=7.20,p<0.05;X^2=6.78,p<0.05)。③不同文化程度人群对心理服务知识和技能需求存在显著差异(X^2=28.65,p<0.05),在接受心理服务场所的选择上也存在显著差异(X^2=16.44,p<0.05)。不同年龄阶段人群对接受心理服务场所的选择上存在显著差异(X^2=21.52,p<0.05)。分析结果显示:在遭受突发性灾难重大事件时,公众对心理服务的了解程度一般,但参与意愿和需求强烈,因此,国家和社会应加快社会心理服务体系的建设,促进公众的心理健康。     

中国二氧化硫污染的“稳健性”影响因素——基于空间面板数据EBA模型的实证分析

改革开放以来,中国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就.然而,随着经济的快速增长,环境污染问题也日益凸显.本文采用2000—2012年中国30个省际的面板数据,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论检验二氧化硫(SO2)污染与经济增长的关系及其空间溢出效应,进而引入极值边界模型(EBA模型)实证检验SO2污染的"稳健性"影响因素.结果表明:我国各省域SO2污染与经济增长存在EKC曲线假设的倒"U"型关系,并具有空间溢出效应;第二产业就业人口比重、出口占GDP的比重、能源效率、化石能源比重、工业污染治理完成投资与SO2排放量呈正向"稳健性"关系,产业结构升级与SO2排放量呈负向"稳健性"关系.最后根据实证结论提出相应的政策建议,为政府制定相应的SO2减排政策提供经验证据和决策参考.