基于马尔科夫灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的火灾损失预测

科学地预测火灾事故及其损失,对于制定火灾防控措施具有重要的现实意义。应用基于马尔科夫的灰色残差GM(1,1)模型,对2002—2011年全国火灾损失进行模拟和预测,结果表明,该模型预测精度明显高于GM(1,1)模型,为火灾损失的预测提供了一种简单而可靠的新途径。     

地铁站火灾人员安全疏散研究综述

为提升地铁站火灾疏散能力,减少灾时人员伤亡和财产损失,国内外大量的研究成果服务于地铁应急预案的制定。分别从研究手段和研究对象方面对国内外近年来的文献进行梳理,分析了地铁站火灾疏散中的烟雾特点、人员应急行为特征和心理反应、疏散中的瓶颈和疏散路径。系统地分析了影响地铁站火灾疏散的因素,比较了不同学者地铁站火灾疏散中存在的差异以及有待改进的地方,从改善地铁设计管理方面和提升人员疏散能力方面提出了建议。     

鲁甸6.5级地震地质灾害调查分析

2014年8月3日云南鲁甸发生6.5级地震,震级不大、灾情较重。震后排查和地震震前后对比显示,滑坡崩塌灾害是加剧灾情的关键因素之一;震后新增隐患沿河谷岸坡脊线、公路边坡开挖线、断裂带"三线耦合"部位集中分布的特征;中小型滑坡主要由地震动触发,大规模滑坡是由断裂活动和地震动联合触发。研究建议在西南山区的应急减灾能力建设中应综合考虑地震和地质灾害,分阶段规划。     

Changes in nitrogen budget and potential risk to the environment over 20 years(1990–2010) in the agroecosystems of the Haihe Basin,China

The nitrogen balance can serve as an indicator of the risk to the environment of nitrogen loss from agricultural land. To investigate the temporal and spatial changes in agricultural nitrogen application and its potential threat to the environment of the Haihe Basin in China, we used a database of county-level agricultural statistics to calculate agricultural nitrogen input, output,surplus intensity, and use efficiency. Chemical fertilizer nitrogen input increased by 51.7% from1990 to 2000 and by 37.2% from 2000 to 2010, concomitant with increasing crop yields.Simultaneously, the nitrogen surplus intensity increased by 53.5% from 1990 to 2000 and by16.5% from 2000 to 2010, presenting a continuously increased environmental risk. Nitrogen use efficiency decreased from 0.46 in 1990 to 0.42 in 2000 and remained constant at 0.42 in 2010,partly due to fertilizer composition and type improvement. This level indicates that more than half of nitrogen inputs are lost in agroecosystems. Our results suggest that although the improvement in fertilizer composition and types has partially offset the decrease in nitrogen use efficiency, the environmental risk has still increased gradually over the past 20 years, along with the increase in crop yields and nitrogen application. It is important to achieve a better nitrogen balance through more effective management to significantly reduce the environmental risk,decrease nitrogen surplus intensity, and increase nitrogen use efficiency without sacrificing crop yields.     

苏州市主要工业污染物排放强度研究

污染物排放强度反映单位新创造经济价值的环境负荷大小.运用均方差赋权法对苏州市各地区的工业废水量、工业化学需氧量、工业氨氮、工业二氧化硫、工业氮氧化物、工业烟(粉)尘等6种主要污染物排放强度进行评价,结果表明,六种主要污染物排放强度综合评价的全市平均水平为15.08.然后分别计算各地区的污染物排放强度降低潜力,结果表明,主要污染物排放强度减排潜力存在区域间差异.最后提出促进污染物排放强度降低的一些建议.     

考虑环境适应性和环境防护的火灾黑匣子设计

目的为了清楚记录火灾事故过程,便于灾后调查分析及预防火灾。方法对火灾现场的环境条件及其复杂性进行研究,并在此基础上,提出考虑环境适应性和环境防护的火灾黑匣子系统的设计思路,进行初步设计。结果火灾黑匣子的外部防护壳体采用了高强度的合金材料,确保了外壳具有较高的硬度和强度,保证了抗电磁干扰能力。内部是主要由二氧化硅凝聚物和石棉粉组成的多重复合结构,具有较好的抗高温火烧性能。结论该设计下的黑匣子实现了对日常使用和恶劣火场环境下的火灾数据的记录、存储与再现的问题。     

Persistent pollutants and the patchiness of urban green areas as drivers of genetic richness in the epiphytic moss Leptodon smithii

We determined genetic variation and metal and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in Leptodon smithii moss collected in holm oak stands at cities, outskirts and remote areas of Campania and Tuscany（Italy） to investigate if anthropogenic pressure（pollutant emissions and land use change） affects moss genetic richness. In both regions, metal and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations reflected the trend urban 〉 outskirts 〉 remote areas, excepting Tuscany remote site. In both regions,the moss gene diversity increased from urban to remote areas. The findings suggest the extent and the fragmentation of urban green areas, as drivers of moss genetic richness.     

大山包黑颈鹤对旅游干扰的行为反应研究

利用警戒距离和惊飞距离两个指标来反映黑颈鹤对旅游干扰的耐受性。实验表明人数的不同对黑颈鹤的惊飞距离有所不同。研究还表明游客的干扰类型以喧哗为主,占总数的73.10%。噪音分贝对黑颈鹤的警戒距离有极显著影响(p=0.0000.05)。为了在提高游客旅游体验的同时,消除旅游活动对黑颈鹤的不利影响,建议最小接近区域面积=π×39.112=4802.92m2,该区域范围内限制游客进入,并在外围设立障碍物。     

某液化天然气接收站及码头消防安全系统分析

参考国内外相关标准规范对山东LNG接收站及码头防火设计和消防系统配置进行了系统研究,对消防水系统、高倍数泡沫灭火系统、干粉灭火系统和消防站等关键消防设施进行了重点论述。     

苯储罐区火灾爆炸风险分析及对策措施

针对苯储罐区所处的区域位置及火灾爆炸危险性,运用道化学火灾、爆炸危险指数法对苯储罐区的火灾、爆炸风险进行分析评价,得出其安全措施补偿前后的火灾、爆炸指数,确定危险等级,并提出了预防火灾爆炸事故的对策措施。