人-机系统事故预防理论研究

分析人-机系统事故发生原因,剖析经典以人失误为主因的事故致因模型存在的不足,在该模型基础上增加"刺激"形成的原因,构建了改进事故致因模型。对两模型进行比较研究,指出人机工程学与防止事故的关系,提出了人机工程学防止事故的方法,并给出人机界面合理性主观评价检查表。研究及论证表明:预防人-机系统事故的本质在于有效防止人失误的发生,除安全管理措施以外,最重要的是人机工程学问题,笔者提出的基于人机工程学的人-机系统事故预防理论,对人-机系统事故的预防起到积极的指导作用。     

西安市城市主干道路面径流初期冲刷效应

以西安市城市主干道南二环太白路高架桥为路面径流采样区域,采用人工等时间间隔采样方法,在桥梁排水立管对2010年9—11月的3场径流事件进行全程采样,测试径流过程SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH3-N、Pb、溶解性Pb、Zn和溶解性Zn的浓度变化,研究路面径流的初期冲刷效应及其影响因素。结果表明,西安市城市主干道路面径流污染严重,降雨数小时后的末期径流仍具有较高的污染水平;径流过程污染物浓度变化规律与其赋存形态有关,SS、COD、Pb等以颗粒态为主的污染物的浓度随雨强变化剧烈波动,NH3-N、溶解态COD、溶解态Zn等以溶解态为主的污染物浓度变化受雨强影响较小,随径流过程呈逐渐减小趋势;路面径流初期冲刷现象并非普遍存在,与污染物的赋存状态和场次降雨特征密切相关,溶解态污染物易于出现初期冲刷现象,颗粒态污染物是否出现初期冲刷与场次降雨特征有关;测试的3场径流事件初期30%的径流携带的SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH3-N、Pb、Zn和溶解性Zn的负荷占场次径流总负荷的比例分别为21.8%～50.0%、25.5%～49.3%、36.3%～52.6%、52.6%～66.7%、26.8%～45.0%、27.2%～63.4%和36.2%～62.6%,表明仅对初期径流进行治理无法实现对西安市路面径流污染的有效控制。     

基于数据包络分析的水污染物排放指标初始分配方法与案例研究

基于数据包络分析(DEA)的点源水污染物排放指标初始分配方法,是将基于DEA的线性规划评价方法进行改进,从而使其适用于评价企业的水环境绩效,并依此进行排污指标初始分配。将非期望产出作为投入指标处理,构造了5输入1输出的规模可变DEA模型,并以南京市280家企业的COD排放指标初始分配为例进行了分析。结果表明,方法的模拟分配结果在公平的基础上,反映了企业的环境效率,效率越高,可得到的COD排放指标也越高,这将对企业治污起到激励作用,分配方法具有一定的可操作性;对案例企业进行分组并实行组内参评,基本可以避免部分极值原始数据对评价结果的影响,得到的COD排放指标分配结果也更为合理。     

Effects of Flow Augmentations in the Snake River Basin on Farms Profitability1

Abstract: For over 10 years, several species of salmon have been identified as either threatened or endangered in the Snake River Basin of Idaho. The United States Bureau of Reclamation, in cooperation with the National Marine Fisheries Service, has proposed a variety of plans to increase stream flows in the Snake River Basin to facilitate movement by juvenile salmon smolts to the ocean. This research examines two of the flow augmentation plans proposed by the Bureau of Reclamation as well as two alternative plans, one founded purely on existing priority‐based water rights and another geared toward minimizing the effects of flow augmentations on farms profitability. Results from a basin‐wide model of agricultural production in the Snake River Basin, the Snake River Agricultural Model, present evidence that (1) older water rights are used towards production of less valuable crops, (2) flow augmentation scenarios have unequal effects on farms profitability across agricultural regions within the basin, and (3) irrigation water is valued from US$4 to US$59 an acre‐foot.     

THE REGULATED RIPARIAN VERSION OF THE ASCE MODEL WATER CODE: THE THIRD WAY TO ALLOCATE WATER1

ABSTRACT: Lawyers, engineers, and hydrologists are accustomed to thinking of water law as falling into one of two incompatible models: riparian rights (under which water is allocated by courts according to the relative reasonableness of the competing uses) and appropriative rights (under which water is allocated according to the temporal priority of the competing uses, largely by the action of the water users themselves but perfected by the issuance of an administrative permit). Usually unnoticed is the existence of a third approach, which I have dubbed “regulated riparianism.” Under regulated riparianism, water is allocated by water permits issued after an administrative determination of the reasonableness of the proposed use before the use is commenced. This system, now in place in about half of the states east of Kansas City (plus Hawaii), thus is fundamentally different from either the traditional ripanan rights that it replaces or the appropriative rights found in western states.