条件数在台风移动路径预报中的应用

以1960-2001年41年中每年7月份西行进入南海海域的台风样本为基础，综合考虑台风移动路径的气候持续因子和数值预报产品的物理量场因子，运用条件数方法选取因子并建立回归方程，进行了台风路径的预报建模研究。由于采用条件数计算分析方法可以有效减少和控制自变量之间的复共线性关系，因此，所建立的台风移动路径模型具有较好的预报效果，24小时的预报误差仅为136．29km。另外，还进一步将该预报方法与国内外普遍采用的气候持续法台风移动路径预报方法进行了对比分析，结果表明，该方法的预报精度要高于气候持续法。     

Colony fission affects kinship in a social insect

Establishment of new groups is an important step in the life history of a social species. Fissioning is a common mode not only in group proliferation, for instance, as a regular part of the life cycle in the honey bee, but also when multiple females reproduce in the same group, as in multiple-queen ant societies. We studied the genetic consequences of fissioning in the ant Proformica longiseta, based on DNA microsatellites. In P. longiseta, new nests arise by fissioning from the old ones when they grow large, and the daughter nests consist of workers and queens or queen pupae but never both. Our results show that fissioning is not entirely random with respect to kinship. Workers tend to segregate along kin lines, but only when the initial relatedness in the parental nests is low. Workers in a daughter nest also tend to be associated with closely related adult queens, whereas such an association is not detected between workers and queen pupae. Most queens and workers are carried to the daughter nest by a specialized group of transporting workers, suggesting active kin discrimination by them. Fissioning pattern in P. longiseta is different from that found in other social insects with regular fission (e.g., the honey bee, swarm-founding wasps), where no fissioning along kin lines has been found. It does, however, resemble fissioning in another group of social animals: primates.     

他念他翁山中段仁措湖地区花岗岩风化晕生长侵蚀模型研究及原地生成宇宙成因核素测年思考

通过建立他念他翁山流域仁措湖地区的花岗岩风化晕生长模型与侵蚀模型,并利用此模型定量了仁措湖地区花岗岩暴露年代。研究结果显示：该地区花岗岩风化晕平均生长速率为4.88 mm? (10 ka) ^?1;平均侵蚀速率为2.15 mm?ka^?1。通过此模型对仁措湖地区的年代进行计算,得出该地区花岗岩风化时间约为(236±88)— (19834±1560) a。结合原地生成宇宙成因核素（terrestrial in situ cosmogenic nuclide,TCN）测年原理,推算出青藏高原花岗岩冰川沉积物至少侵蚀速率分别为：青藏高原东北部为(2.61±0.05) mm?ka^?1、青藏高原东南部为(3.43±0.70) mm?ka^?1、青藏高原中部为(3.42±0.34) mm?ka^?1、喜马拉雅中部为(3.71±0.72) mm?ka^?1、高原西部为(3.14±0.52) mm?ka^?1、喜马拉雅山脉西部为(3.36±0.67) mm?ka^?1、帕米尔高原东部为(3.45±0.59) mm?ka^?1、帕米尔高原西部为(3.11±0.41) mm?ka^?1、天山为(3.63±0.53) mm?ka^?1,恢复后整个青藏高原的TCN测年精度提高了10%左右。     

Compromise ultrasound dating policy in maternal serum screening for Down syndrome

Routine ultrasound biometry is the method of choice for gestational dating when screening for Down syndrome. However, it is costly and an alternative policy is to restrict ultrasound to women most likely to have menstrual dating errors. This was evaluated by statistical modelling with parameters from 14 274 women screened between January 1997 and July 2001 using free beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin (free β-hCG), α-fetoprotein (AFP) and unconjugated estriol (uE₃). A total of 12 711 (89%) women had both ultrasound and menstrual gestations, but in 4101 (29%) women either the last menstrual period (LMP) was uncertain or a pill-withdrawal period, or there were irregular or abnormal length cycles. The LMP was not entered in the test request form for a further 1404 (9.8%) women. Routine ultrasound dating yielded a predicted detection rate higher than for menstrual dating by 3.9–7.1%, depending on the marker combination and cut-off. The false-positive rate was reduced by 0.2–1.1%. Selectively scanning the 39% with unreliable dates increased detection by 2.6–4.6%, and reduced the false-positive rate by 0.04–0.6%. Some centres only use the ultrasound estimate of gestation when it differs from the menstrual estimate by more than 7 days. Such a rule reduces the gain in detection rate to 2.5–4.6% for routine ultrasound and 1.7–3.1% with the compromise policy; the false-positive rate reductions are 0.06–0.6% and 0.0–0.3%, respectively. We conclude that if routine ultrasound is not financially and practically feasible, the compromise policy yields a clinically important improvement in screening performance compared to menstrual dating. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comprehensive evaluation of heavy metal contamination of sediment in Lake Dianchi by using modified AHP method and 137Cs dating

Through the use of general sampling and measurement by ¹³⁷ Cs dating, problems regarding the absence of monitoring data can easily be resolved. Further, weighted values need to be determined while Environment Quality Comprehensive Index (EQCI) is commonly used as applied in environmental quality comprehensive evaluation. In order to overcome the subjectivity in determining weights, the modified Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was designed. The modified AHP method involved the following key procedures: First, the parameters y _i1 and y _i2 were calculated based on the monitoring data; second, the factors were put in order according to the symbol and value of y _i1 and y _i2; third, the continuous odd integers, which represented the importance of factors, were given to factors according to their seating order; and, fourth, the factor weights were determined from the pair-wise comparison matrix calculated by the ratio of the given odd integers. Therefore, the weights were completely based on the monitoring data. In the present study, the comprehensive quality of sediments in five sections of Lake Dianchi were evaluated and the results indicated that the current contamination of sediments in each lake section is much more serious than at any other time in history. __________ Translated from Environmental Science, 2006, 27(8): 1531–1536 [译自: 环境科学]     

Life in extreme environments: survival strategy of the endolithic desert lichen Verrucaria rubrocincta

Verrucaria rubrocincta Breuss is an endolithic lichen that inhabits caliche plates exposed on the surface of the Sonoran Desert. Caliche surface temperatures are regularly in excess of 60 degrees C during the summer and approach 0 degrees C in the winter. Incident light intensities are high, with photosynthetically active radiation levels typically to 2,600 micromol/m(2) s(-1) during the summer. A cross-section of rock inhabited by V. rubrocincta shows an anatomical zonation comprising an upper micrite layer, a photobiont layer containing clusters of algal cells, and a pseudomedulla embedded in the caliche. Hyphae of the pseudomedulla become less numerous with depth below the rock surface. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopic data for the caliche and micrite fall into two sloping, well-separated arrays on a delta(13)C-delta(18)O plot. The delta(13)C(PDB) of the micrite ranges from 2.1 to 8.1 and delta(18)O(SMOW) from 25.4 to 28.9, whereas delta(13)C(PDB) of the caliche ranges from -4.7 to 0.7 and delta(18)O(SMOW) from 23.7 to 29.2. The isotopic data of the micrite can be explained by preferential fixing of (12)C into the alga, leaving local (13)C enrichment and evaporative enrichment of (18)O in the water. The (14)C dates of the micrite range from recent to 884 years b.p., indicating that "dead" carbon from the caliche is not a significant source for the lichen-precipitated micrite. The endolithic growth is an adaptation to the environmental extremes of exposed rock surfaces in the hot desert. The micrite layer is highly reflective and reduces light intensity to the algae below and acts as an efficient sunscreen that blocks harmful UV radiation. The micrite also acts as a cap to the lichen and helps trap moisture. The lichen survives by the combined effects of biodeterioration and biomineralization. Biodeterioration of the caliche concomitant with biomineralization of a protective surface coating of micrite results in the distinctive anatomy of V. rubrocincta.     

固体径迹探测器与RAD-7测氡仪测定民用建筑工程室内氡浓度的比较

民用建筑工程室内氡的监测方法很多,其中固体径迹探测器法属于国标方法,RAD-7测氡仪法为近年来引进的仪器监测方法。本文对两种方法进行了比较,包括监测方法及原理、比对试验,并分析了2种方法的相关性、一致性和精度,以及两者在民用建筑工程室内氡验收监测的实际应用中的优缺点等,结果表明:以上两种方法从技术角度上讲,各有优点,均能满足一般室内空气中氡浓度的监测要求,虽然可利用固体径迹探测器法累积测量的结果来估算居住者受照剂量,进而评价氡的辐射危害,但因检验周期(至少30 d)过长,所以不适宜于工程检测;比较而言,RAD-7测氡仪的配置参数和测量方式更适宜于民用建筑工程的室内氡监测,已成为目前监测的主要方法,但在实际监测中,还需注意合理设置足够长的采样时间、湿度控制在10%以下、气路中残留气体的冲洗净化以及当初测值接近或超过《规范》规定的限量值时,有必要进一步延长监测时间进行跟踪监测等事项,以保证监测结果准确可靠。     

Effects of climate and exurban development on nest predation and predator presence in the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA)

In the eastern United States, land-use and climate change have likely contributed to declines in the abundance of Neotropical migrant birds that occupy forest interiors, but the mechanisms are not well understood. We conducted a nest-predation experiment in southern Appalachian Mountain forests (North Carolina, U.S.A.) during the 2009 and 2010 breeding seasons to determine the effects of exurban development and temperature on predator presence and the average number of days until eggs in an artificial nest were disturbed by predators. We baited artificial nests with quail (Excalfactoria chinensi) eggs and monitored them for 18 days. We used clay eggs, track plates, and motion-triggered cameras to detect and identify nest predators. The average number of days a nest was undisturbed decreased as mean temperature increased and, to a lesser extent, as the density of buildings increased. Nests on the ground were more often depredated than those in trees, likely due to increased predation by opossum (Didelphis virginiana) and other carnivores. Raccoons (Procyon lotor), opossums, corvids (Corvus brachyrhynchos and Cyanocitta cristata), chipmunks (Tamias striatus), black bears (Ursus americanus), and domestic cats (Felis catus) were the most commonly detected predators. Presence of these predators did not vary as a function of mean temperature. Domestic cats and corvids were detected more frequently in plots with high rather than low densities of buildings. Forest-interior specialists and Neotropical migrants often nest in cool, high-elevation areas with low housing density. These bird species, especially those that nest on the ground, may be most vulnerable to increased nest predation if temperature and exurban development increase at higher elevations as anticipated.     

珠海市大气环境中氡浓度的测定

采用固体径迹探测器累积氡测定方法对珠海市不同地质背景、不同的建筑风格的房室内室、外地面水平氡浓度进行了测定。结果表明,珠海市室内、外空气中氡浓度的平均值分别为：１６４。２Ｂｑ／ｍ＾３和７５．２Ｂｑ／ｍ＾３,居全国各大城市之首,仅次于我国的个旧地区,但大多数住房室内氡浓度都低２００Ｂｑ／ｍ＾３。研究发现秋冬季的室外氡浓度高于春夏季的室外氡浓度。而室内氡浓度的浓度的变化情况则相反,春夏季高于秋冬季,室     

Assessment of indoor radiation level in the environs of the uranium deposit area of West Khasi Hills District,Meghalaya, India

An estimation of the indoor background radiation dose distribution was carried out in dwellings of eleven villages located within and around the uranium mineralization area of Kylleng-Pyndensohiong, Mawthabah in West Khasi Hills District of Meghalaya, India. The ambient indoor gamma radiation level was monitored using Thermo Luminescence Dosimeters (TLDs) while the indoor radon and thoron concentration was measured using twin-cup dosimeters employing Solid State Nuclear Track Detectors (SSNTDs). Results obtained from the study reveals that the local inhabitants of villages located close to the mining site receive higher doses than those inhabitants of villages located at a much farther distance from the mining site. The average total annual effective dose was found to be varying from 1.2 mSv y⁻¹ in the village of Langpa to 3.4 mSv y⁻¹ in the village of Nongbah Jynrin. The data obtained will serve as a reference in documenting changes to environmental radioactivity if mining is to be carried out in the future.