冰情预报的投影寻踪回归模型

将投影寻踪回归模型应用于黑龙江上游江段开河日期的预报,并与GA-BP模型预报的结果进行了对比分析.结果表明,投影寻踪回归模型预报的精度及稳定性较高,其性能优于常用的GA-BP模型.预报采用理论分析与多元逐步回归分析相结合的方法筛选预报因子,既可确保不遗漏基本影响因子,又能剔除对目标值影响不显著的因子,用于确定冰情预报的预报因子较为适宜.     

Analysis of Damaging Hydrogeological Events: The Case of the Calabria Region (Southern Italy)

A period of bad weather conditions due to prolonged intense rainfall and strong winds can trigger landslides, floods, secondary floods (accumulation of rain on surfaces with low permeability), and sea storms, causing damage to humans and infrastructure. As a whole, these periods of bad weather and triggered phenomena can be defined as damaging hydrogeological events (DHEs). We define a methodological approach based on seven simple indexes to analyze such events. The indexes describe the return period (T) and trend of rainfall, the extent of hit areas, and the level of damages; they can be considered attributes of georeferenced features and analyzed with GIS techniques. We tested our method in an Italian region frequently hit by DHEs. In a period of 10 years, 747 damaging phenomena (landslides, 43%; floods, 38%) and 94 DHEs have been classified. The road network and housing areas are the most frequently damaged elements, threatened by all types of damaging phenomena. T classes are almost in accordance with the level of damage. These results can be used to outline warning levels for civil protection purposes, to forecast the areas most likely to be hit and the potential ensuing damage, to disseminate information concerning vulnerable areas, and to increase people’s awareness of risk.     

Flood risk management in Dutch local spatial planning practices

Spatial planning is increasingly regarded as an important instrument to reduce flood consequences. Nevertheless, there are very few studies that show why local planning authorities do or do not systematically use spatial planning in advance to mitigate flood risks. This paper explores flood reduction strategies in local planning practices in the Netherlands. It also explores why spatial planning was or was not used to reduce flood consequences. The arguments for the use or non-use of planning mainly referred to requirements from other governmental bodies and the perceived role and the related responsibility of local planning authorities, previous disaster experience, and previous experience with spatial planning for flood risk management.     

福州市主城区土地利用／覆被变化的洪涝响应

以福州市主城区1988年和2008年的TM影像为基础,对福州市主城区土地利用/覆被变化特征进行分析.结果表明:研究区1988-2008年期间土地利用结构发生了很大的变化,不同土地利用类型之间相互转化,其中建设用地面积剧增,导致不透水层的大面积增加.结合土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应分析表明,主城区土地利用/覆被变化对洪水的产流、汇流过程及河网水系结构产生很大的影响.     

1998年长江大洪水与大气环流和海温异常分析

概述了引起１９９８年长江大洪水的雨情,从天气气候角度分析了１９９８年长江流域降水异常偏多的原因。指出了最直接的原因是副高移动的反常,特别７月１５日以后副高突然南撤南海季风爆发晚,南亚和东亚季风强度偏弱、夏季赤道辐合带偏弱热带地区台风生成少、生成时间晚,     

长江中游盆地地质环境系统演变与防治对策

在构造沉降,泥沙淤积及人工围的相互的相互作用下,长江中游盆地质环境系统分割为演变化方向不同的两部分,堤外水域成为人工过饱盆地,堤内垸地成人为人工饥饿盆地。,长江某些区段及洞庭湖 水位抬升,垸地高程不断降低,洪涝渍害不断加剧。     

松花江嫩江流域洪涝发生与流域内降水的关系

利用松花江、嫩江流域１９５１￣１９９５年期间的气象和水文资料,采用相关分析、经验正交分析等方法,讨论了该流域洪涝发生的规律及其与流域内降水分布的关系。文章指出,江流域的水闰变化有明显的阶段性,且具有全流域一致的特性,目前正处在８０年代以来洪涝较严重的阶段;嫩江流域降水异常偏多对松花江洪涝的影响比第二松花江的作用要大;１９９８年夏季,松花江、嫩江流域出现超历史纪录特大洪水的关键原因是嫩江流域６￣８月     

洪涝灾害灾情时间变化特性分析：以中国1736—1911年主要大江大？…

利用已经建立的全国１７３６￣１９１１年洪涝灾害时间序列,拟合各个区域的洪涝灾害长期变化趋势,并通过功率谱分析了时间序列的波动规律;同时,分析了气温、降水等自然因素的变化和人口总量变化、人口空间迁移以及土地利用变化等人文因素变化与灾害增减之间的关系。结果表明,洪涝灾害的波动主要由气候变化等自然因素的波动所引起,而人类活动增强并不断向高风险区扩展是洪涝灾害持续增长的主要原因,最终使洪涝灾害表现为波动中     

区域性旱涝灾害的系统对策模型及其应用

依据一定区域内作物受旱涝 (包括连阴雨 )危害的系统可控性 ,提出一种旱涝灾害的对策模型 ,并阐明了模型建立的有关问题 ,且给出实例     

Flood Disaster Reduction in China's Major Cereal Production Areas

1The Agricultural Resources and Yielding Status of the Major Cereal ProductionAreasNEC,RBHHH and ML RYR are the three major areas for agricultural and cereal production inChina and the national bases for growing commodity grain with first priority.Especially,theThree-River Plain and Songhuajiang-Nenjiang Plain in NEC,the alluvial plain of the Huanghe,Haihe and Huaihe rivers in RBHHH and the plain of two rivers (Hanshui and Huaihe) and threelakes (Poyang,Dongting and Taihu) in …