基于Copula函数的汉江中上游流域极端降雨洪水联合分布特征

选取汉江中上游流域作为研究对象,根据流域九个气象站点1969~2008年逐日降雨资料以及丹江口水库同时期日入库流量资料,采用年最大值法(AM)和百分位法两种选样方式选取1 d、3 d降雨和1 d、3 d洪量极值样本,分别运用广义极值分布(GEV)、广义帕累托分布(GPD)、伽玛分布(Gamma)3种极值统计模型对样本进行单变量边缘分布拟合,运用Gumbel、Clayton以及Frank Copula函数模型对样本进行多变量联合分布拟合,遴选出描述流域降雨和洪水联合分布规律的最优概率模型。结果显示:对于AM选样样本,边缘分布为GEV时降雨洪量的二维和三维联合分布Frank Copula函数拟合效果最优;对于百分位选样样本,边缘分布为GPD时降雨洪量的二维联合分布Gumbel Copula函数拟合效果最优,三维联合分布则是Frank Copula函数拟合效果最优;比较二维和三维Copula函数模拟结果,三维联合Copula函数推求的设计值更大,说明三维联合分布考虑了更多的变量和极值信息,能更全面地反映极端降雨洪水事件的真实特征,对工程设计更显安全。     

中国铁路水害环境致灾因子分析

以１９８０—１９９８年近２０年间的共３１８２次水害数据为基础进行统计分析，对中国铁路水害的自然环境致灾因子作了分类，验证了其与太阳黑子之间的相关性．同时，对降水致灾的发生频数与断道时间之间的关系进行了探讨，指出地形、地质对铁路水害的影响具有区域性特征。     

鄱阳湖洪灾特征与圩区还湖减灾运用方式研究

根据水文资料,分析了鄱阳湖入湖五大河流来水与长江水情对鄱阳湖洪灾的影响和鄱阳湖洪水位的频率特征,探讨了湖区中小圩区"高水还湖滞洪,低水种植养殖"的减灾运行方式对湖区防洪减灾可以起到的作用。     

国外非工程防洪减灾战略研究(Ⅱ)——减灾实例

讨论了美国等国家在防洪减灾中非工程措施方面的一些做法 ,给出了其中一些实例 ,阐述了防洪减灾工程措施与非工程措施的发展趋势。     

重力式码头的震害预测

本文根据重力式码头的结构地震荷载计算和地震破坏的经验，建立了重力式码头的震害预测方法。并用此方法对烟台港的重力式码头进行了震害预测。     

开采地下水引起地面变形的分析

本文模拟开采地下水引起的地面变形机制，建立了一个分析开采地下水引起的地面变形的有限元方法。这个方法可以考虑由于开采地下水引起的土自重的变化，土承受的渗透力的变化，以及承压含水层中水压力及渗透力的变化。在分析中还考虑了土的非均质性及力学非线性性能。分析了一个算例以说明这个分析方法的功能及其适用性。分析结果表明，开采地下水引起的沉降和径向变形对工程的影响是同样重要的，它们在数值上具有相同的数量级；而且，沉降主要是由土自重的变化引起的，径向变形主要是由渗透力的径向分量的变化引起的。此外，这个分析方法可以把开采地下水做为一个过程，分阶段地分析所引起的地面变形     

SO2衍生物对蚕豆根尖细胞不同分裂阶段的遗传损伤

研究SO2体内衍生物-亚硫酸钠和亚硫酸氢钠混合液[c(Na2SO3):c(NaHSO3)=3:1]对蚕豆根尖细胞不同分裂时期的遗传损伤效应；结果表明：SO2衍生物（c=0.17-15.0mmolL^-1)诱发蚕豆根尖细胞遗传损伤在细胞分裂的不同阶段有不同的表现形式。间期异常主要是微核和核芽，分裂期异常包括微核，染色体断片，粘连及滞后等，研究结果表明：SO2衍生物处理组蚕豆根尖中，间期微核细胞数，分裂期具有染色体断裂，粘连或滞后的细胞数均明显多于对照组，而且易于观察分析，可以作为环境监测指标。     

Concentration Evolution of Gas Species within a Collapsing Bubble in a Liquid Medium

In this study numerical methods are used to investigate the relationship between chemical concentration of gas species within a cavitating bubble, equilibrium radius of the gas bubble and pressure variations in the ambient liquid. For this purpose, governing equations are developed to describe the dynamic equilibrium of a bubble in a flowing fluid and mass transfer between gas and liquid phases, where it was assumed that gases undergo isothermal compression, obey the ideal gas law, Henry law. It is further assumed that the concentration of each phase within the bubble is uniform. The resulting nonlinear equations are solved using implicit Trapezoidal method with Newton iteration. Four gas species are modeled under various initial and ambient pressure variation conditions. These conditions maybe considered to represent typical cavitation events. The numerical results obtained are presented in terms of dimensionless numbers. These results indicate that chemical damage maybe an important component of cavitation surface damage, since high concentration profiles may develop within a collapsing bubble. Proposed formulation and numerical solutions are simple and cost effective to implement. The results presented in this study maybe used to benchmark experimental investigations or other more complex solutions, which are outside the scope of this study.     

OPTIMAL IDENTIFICATION OF MUSKINGUM ROUTING COEFFICIENTS1

Traditionally, identification of the Muskingum routing coefficients has been based on observations of the linearity of a loop formed by graphically plotting a forward and a reverse path. This graphical procedure is time-consuming and may not minimize the error of estimation. A procedure was developed to improve the drawbacks of the graphical method. This procedure calls for (a) the use of least square regression on the forward and reverse paths to determine their respective slopes, and (b) the use of statistical t-test to evaluate the hypothesis that these two slopes are equal. The computational procedure is repeated, using incremental values of the flow weighting coefficient, x. A graph of the computed t-value versus x can be constructed. The optimal value of x, as read from the graph, occurs at the minimum computed t-value. The procedure has been demonstrated superior to the graphical method for three illustrative examples, resulting in a reduction of the error squares by factors ranging from 5 to 6.     

长江流域洪灾与生态破坏的关系浅析:Ⅲ生态重建与减灾对策

在分析长江流域１９９８ 年洪水灾害与生态环境破坏的关系的基础上,提出了生态重建规划应以可持续发展为指导思想,坚持经济建设、社会发展与生态环境保护相协调的基本原则;指出了生态保护、恢复、重建的要点与方略;提出了防灾、减灾的对策建议。