Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management

In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.     

An LC-MS/MS method for creatine and creatinine analysis in paraquat-intoxicated patients

Abstract

A sudden increase in serum creatinine after paraquat intoxication has been reported in several clinical studies. However, this dramatic change of creatinine may be possibly due to an interconversion of creatine-creatinine in relation to paraquat toxicity. In order to investigate the creatine-creatinine relationship, a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry in combination with electrospray ionization was developed and validated for simultaneous determination of creatine and creatinine in the serum. The chromatographic separation was achieved on a Gemini® C₆-Phenyl column with a gradient elution consisting of 0.1% formic acid in ultrapure water and methanol as the mobile phase. The method yielded suitable levels of specificity and selectivity, and calibration curves of creatine and creatinine in serum were linear over the concentration range of 0.5–200?µg mL^?1. The limit of quantification of both compounds was 0.5?µg mL^?1, and the method was accurate within the recovery range of 96.23–102.75%, indicating the robustness of the method. The method was successfully applied to toxicological samples from paraquat-intoxicated patients, and the concentrations of creatine and creatinine were quantified. High creatine concentrations in serum samples were observed which may lead to high serum creatinine despite normal kidney function as creatine is converted to creatinine in proportion to its concentration.     

贵州喀斯特山区不同种植年限花椒根际土壤细菌群落结构特征研究

以贵州花江峡谷花椒(Zanthoxylum bungeamun)林为研究对象,采用16S rRNA高通量测序技术,分析种植5、10、20、30 a花椒根际土壤细菌群落结构和多样性特征,探讨不同种植年限花椒土壤理化因子对根际细菌群落分布的影响,为喀斯特石漠化地区花椒农业可持续发展提供有效的理论依据.结果表明,随着花椒种植...     

Indigenous Systems of Forest Classification: Understanding Land Use Patterns and the Role of NTFPs in Shifting Cultivators’ Subsistence Economies

This article discusses the system of classification of forest types used by the Pwo Karen in Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in western Thailand and the role of nontimber forest products (NTFPs), focusing on wild food plants, in Karen livelihoods. The article argues that the Pwo Karen have two methods of forest classification, closely related to their swidden farming practices. The first is used for forest land that has been, or can be, swiddened, and classifies forest types according to growth conditions. The second system is used for land that is not suitable for cultivation and looks at soil properties and slope. The article estimates the relative importance of each forest type in what concerns the collection of wild food plants. A total of 134 wild food plant species were recorded in December 2004. They account for some 80–90% of the amount of edible plants consumed by the Pwo Karen, and have a base value of Baht 11,505 per year, comparable to the cash incomes of many households. The article argues that the Pwo Karen reliance on NTFPs has influenced their land-use and forest management practices. However, by restricting the length of the fallow period, the Thai government has caused ecological changes that are challenging the ability of the Karen to remain subsistence oriented. By ignoring shifting cultivators’ dependence on such products, the involvement of governments in forest management, especially through restrictions imposed on swidden farming practices, is likely to have a considerable impact on the livelihood strategies of these communities.     

水处理中微生物絮凝剂产生菌的选育及应用

综述了微生物絮凝剂产生菌筛选和培育方面的研究进展,介绍了微生物絮凝剂在给水和饮用水、乳化液的油水分离、污水处理等领域的应用,以及廉价培养基的探索实践。提出针对影响微生物絮凝剂产生菌生长代谢的环境条件开展深入研究,同时寻找或设计廉价培养基,降低生产成本,推动其工业化应用。     

循环序批式活性污泥反应器的调试及运行

介绍了循环序批式活性污泥反应器的工艺流程及设计参数、调试和运行情况,分析探讨了系统运行中出现的一些问题。稳定运行期间的检测结果表明,反应器对COD和NH3-N具有较好的去除效果,平均去除率分别达到86.2%和92.1%,但对TP的去除率有待提高。     

基于生态—经济协调发展的乡镇空间功能分区

按提供产品的类别,乡镇尺度空间由生态空间、农业空间和建设空间组成,这3部分空间共同承载着乡镇社会经济发展的重任。坚持生态保护对发展的约束与支撑功能并存的理念,建立以生态约束为前提,并与开发建设协同推进的分区指标体系、技术方法及应用模式,是生态文明战略下空间功能分区的有益探讨。以南京市六合区雄州街道为案例,借助Arc GIS空间分析工具,采用互斥性矩阵分类法,通过对生态约束、农业发展、工业发展与人居环境等建设开发适宜性的单项与综合评价的集成,构建生态、农业和建设空间布局的总体架构,实现了街镇空间功能的整合与科学定位;划分禁止建设区、限制建设区、适宜建设区和已建设区等四大类功能区,并提出各功能区的生态环境保护措施与产业发展导向,为实施区域发展与生态保护的协同推进提供了依据。     

经济发达地区土地利用结构变化预测 --以江苏省江阴市为例

结构决定功能，把握土地利用结构变化的趋势，调整社会经济发展的策略。优化土地利用结构是土地可持续利用的关键。以经济发达地区江苏省江阴市为例，运用马尔柯夫链的理论与方法，构建土地利用结构转移的概率矩阵，预测江阴市2005年和2010年的土地利用结构，并分析其变化特征，以此来研究经济发达地区近期内可能的土地利用结构变化规律。模拟结果表明，经济发达地区土地利用结构变化存在着非农化趋势加快．农地数量减少加速的现象，如果为保证耕地的数量平衡，则可能导致农地内部结构极其不合理。根据研究结果，提出适当释放农地，促进经济发展；运用经济杆杠，提高非农用地利用效率；重视耕地质量，改善生态环境的政策建议。     

2种反应器中好氧颗粒污泥培养的比较研究

以絮状活性污泥为接种污泥,采用人工配制的模拟生活污水,分别在气提式序批反应器(SBAR)和序批式活性污泥反应器(SBR)中成功地培养出了成熟的好氧颗粒污泥.SBAR和SBR中的好氧颗粒污泥都具有稳定的基本形态结构,其微生物主要由杆菌和球菌组成,对COD的去除率可达到93%左右.对NH+4-N的去除率可达到98%以上.SBAR中好氧颗粒污泥的粒径主要分布、污泥体积指数(SVI)、比耗氧速率(SOUR)、TN去除率和TP去除率分别为0.45～2.00 mm、19.97 mL/g、47.68 g/(kg·h)、82%和65%;而SBR中好氧颗粒污泥的粒径主要分布、SVI、SOUR、TN去除率和TP去除率分别为0.18～1.00 mm、29.12 mL/g、43.21 g/(kg·h)、58%和50%.相对而言,SBAR更有利于好氧颗粒污泥的培养和运行.     

降解丙烯酰胺的活性污泥培养及驯化研究

采用阶梯式驯化法,控制温度在18℃～24℃,pH在6—8,溶解氧在4—8mg／L,在容积为6L的驯化器中对活性污泥进行培养驯化。经过25d的培养之后,得到了稳定降解丙烯酰胺的活性污泥。驯化后的活性污泥SVI为85—132,COD去除率达70％。