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E. Conrad Lamon Song S. Qian Daniel D. Richter 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(5):1219-1229
ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log10 streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log10 suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log10 streamflow versus log10 suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log10 streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration. 相似文献
114.
我国道路交通安全发展情景分析 总被引:9,自引:5,他引:9
以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。 相似文献
115.
山砂是我国西北部矿区地表的主要自然资源之一,但如用其直接作为煤矿注浆防灭火的原料,不仅会造成输送管路的堵塞,还会引起输送管路的严重磨损。为此,首先研究了常见增稠剂羧甲基纤维素、聚丙烯酰胺和聚丙烯酸钠等对砂粒的悬浮性能,实验结果表明它们只能延缓砂粒的沉降。进而从理论上分析了砂粒悬浮的条件,发现具有一定屈服应力的假塑性流体特性的液体才能悬浮砂粒;并且悬浮砂粒粒径越大,所需屈服应力也越大。基于理论分析,研制了具有该特性的浆液,山砂在该浆液中不仅具有良好的悬浮性能,浆液还具有输送阻力小的特性。管道输送试验表明,浆液稳定性和流动阻力符合实际要求。 相似文献
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采用微波消解-光度法处理钻井液废水中的总铬。该方法克服了常规消解方法的缺点,测定步骤简单、快速,准确性高。通过实验探讨了微波功率、加热时间、样品体积对样品消解的影响。与常压的硫酸-硝酸消解法进行比较的结果表明,用微波消解-光度法处理泥浆废水可将消解时间由原来的6h缩短为20min,加标回收率由60%提高到92%,降低了工作强度,改善了工作环境。 相似文献
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为识别公众风险感知的演化规律和官方媒体参与的作用机制,首先,根据公众的行为表现划分不同风险感知群体,并分析群体间的相互竞争和官方媒体的扰动作用;然后,通过扩展Lotka Volterra模型建立群体间的相互竞争模型;在此基础上,通过推导模型平衡点及其稳定性分析模型演化规律;最后,运用数值仿真考查了官方媒体的参与对模型演化的影响。研究结果表明:模型演化具有3种结果情景,官方媒体参与能够显著改变模型演化的速度和结果。 相似文献
119.
N.D. Woodman T.C. Rees-White A.M. Stringfellow R.P. Beaven A.P. Hudson 《Waste management (New York, N.Y.)》2014,34(11):2196-2208
The effect of applied compression on the nature of liquid flow and hence the movement of contaminants within municipal solid waste was examined by means of thirteen tracer tests conducted on five separate waste samples. The conservative nature of bromide, lithium and deuterium tracers was evaluated and linked to the presence of degradation in the sample. Lithium and deuterium tracers were non-conservative in the presence of degradation, whereas the bromide remained effectively conservative under all conditions. Solute diffusion times into and out of less mobile blocks of waste were compared for each test under the assumption of dominantly dual-porosity flow. Despite the fact that hydraulic conductivity changed strongly with applied stress, the block diffusion times were found to be much less sensitive to compression. A simple conceptual model, whereby flow is dominated by sub-parallel low permeability obstructions which define predominantly horizontally aligned less mobile zones, is able to explain this result. Compression tends to narrow the gap between the obstructions, but not significantly alter the horizontal length scale. Irrespective of knowledge of the true flow pattern, these results show that simple models of solute flushing from landfill which do not include depth dependent changes in solute transport parameters are justified. 相似文献
120.
Liang Lu Yuqi Jin Hongmei Liu Xiaojun Ma Kunio Yoshikawa 《Waste management (New York, N.Y.)》2014,34(1):79-85
Nitrogen evolution was studied during the co-combustion of hydrothermally treated municipal solid wastes (HT MSW) and coal in a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB). HT MSW blending ratios as 10%, 20% and 30% (wt.%) were selected and tested at 700, 800, 900 °C. Emissions of NO and N2O from blends were measured and compared with the results of mono-combustion trials. Moreover, concentrations of precursors like NH3 and HCN were also quantified. The results are summarized as follows: NO emissions were predominant in all the cases, which rose with increasing temperature. The blending of HT MSW contributed to the NO reduction. N2O emissions decreased with temperature rising and the blending of HT MSW also presented positive effects. At 30% HT MSW addition, both NO and N2O emissions showed the lowest values (391.85 ppm and 55.33 ppm, respectively at 900 °C). For the precursors, more HCN was detected than NH3 and both played important roles on the gas side nitrogen evolution. 相似文献