垃圾渗滤液中污染物在包气带运移模拟实验及预测

为揭示垃圾渗滤液中污染物在包气带中的迁移转化规律,通过静态吸附、静态降解、动态土柱和数学模型预测等方法进行模拟实验。结果表明,包气带对污染物的吸附过程是线性的,即S=KdC,吸附系数Kd=0.0976;降解曲线符合一级动力学方程,即C=C0e-λt,降解系数λ=0.0324d-1;弥散过程符合对流-弥散迁移转化模型,弥散系数D=0.00435m2·d-1,由此确定了污染物迁移数学模型。通过动态土柱实验验证了模型的可靠性,并利用模型对垃圾渗滤液中有机污染物(COD)的时空分布进行预测。     

Climatology and forecast modeling of ambient carbon monoxide in Phoenix, Arizona

We perform a climatology of factors influencing ambient carbon monoxide (CO), in which we examine the relationships between meteorology, traffic patterns, and CO at seasonal, weekly, and diurnal time scales in Phoenix, Arizona. From this analysis we identify a range of potentially important variables for statistical CO modeling. Using stepwise multivariate regression, we create a suite of models for hourly and 8-h ambient CO designed for daily operational forecasting purposes. The resulting models include variables and interaction terms related to anticipated nocturnal atmospheric stability as well as antecedent and climatological CO behavior. The models are evaluated using a range of error statistics and skill measures. The most successful approach employs a two-stage modeling strategy in which an initial prediction is made that may, depending on the forecast value, be followed by a second prediction that improves upon the first. The best models provide accurate daily forecasts of CO, with explained variances approaching 0.9 and errors under 1 ppm.     

Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

大气环境影响评价技术复核规范与典型案例分析

大气环境影响评价(简称环评)技术复核是指依据国家发布的标准与规范要求,针对重点项目环评报告书中有关环境影响预测与评价部分内容开展的技术复核工作,重点分析预测模型、基础数据与参数以及预测方法是否符合技术导则相关要求,并提出复核结论与建议。针对60多个重大环境敏感项目的技术复核报告进行统计分析,发现超过60%的被复核环评报告需返回修改或直接退回。复核案例及经验表明,污染源确定、模型应用规范化是大气环评中需要解决的关键技术。最后,结合典型案例说明大气环境影响预测技术复核的主要内容、过程和复核结论,提出了加强技术复核有效性、提高大气环境影响预测技术水平的结论与建议。     

黄河入海口水质评价与预测

对黄河入海口2004-2011年的水质进行评价与预测,采用灰色聚类法分析水体DO、CODMn、NH3-N 3项指标,总结水质年均变化情况.建立水质GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,用实际水质指标值检验其精度,并用此模型预测未来4年水质变化趋势.结果表明,2004-2015年期间,黄河入海口水质在2004-2007年波动较大,但将越来越好,CODMn、NH3-N呈下降趋势,DO、达标率呈上升趋势,并通过灰色关联分析方法分析水质变化原因以期对黄河入海口水质分析预测与水体保护工作提供参考.     

北京市空气质量动态统计预报系统

简要介绍了北京市空气质量动态统计预报系统的构成、特点,以及所采用的线性回归模型LRM,分类判别树CART模型,CART与LRM结合的模型,动态统计预报模型DSM,多点预报模型MPDSM 5种预报模型,分析了不同预报模型的特点和性能.所建立的动态统计预报模型DSM有良好的预报性能,减小了在高污染季节的预报误差;多点空气质量动态预报模型也具有较好的预报性能.      

应用箱模型预测地下车库空气污染物浓度

利用箱模式理论,结合地下车库空气污染物的动力学过程,探讨了地下车库空气污染物浓度的预测计算方法,得出Ci=C0+S/a,并分析了其影响因素。通过实例应用,说明箱模式可应用于地下车库污染物浓度的预测,而且为需排烟通风场所的空气交换率等合理选择提供了较为可信的理论基础。     

Sampling and Analysis of Volatile Organic Compounds Emitted from Leaded and Unleaded Gasoline Powered Motor Vehicles

Forecasts of air quality provide information to the general public during periods with high levels of air pollution. Criteria for testing the validity and reliability of forecast systems are discussed. As the objectives of a forecast may widely differ (providing information to the public or triggering short-term emission reduction measures) there is not a single evaluation procedure. It is recommended to use a set of performance indicators. The strong year-to-year variability in occurrence of smog episodes makes it necessarily to use several years of data in the evaluation.     

基于均生函数的最优子集回归方法在江西雨季降水预测中的应用

通过基于均生函数的最优子集回归方法在江西雨季 (4～ 6月 )降水预测中的应用 ,发现预报步长为 1 a时 ,预报效果较为理想。其中 4月份的预报能力最强 ,5、 6月份的预报能力次之     

二次指数平滑法的成都市餐厨垃圾产量预测

餐厨垃圾的产生量直接影响其处理规模,指数平滑法是对于缺乏基础数据的模型预测的一种有效方法。本文以2001～2009年成都市餐厨垃圾产量数据为基础,运用二次指数平滑预测法对成都市餐厨垃圾产量进行预测,预测结果显示2010年成都市餐厨垃圾产量将达到514.96 t/d。