飞机撞击引起爆炸-火灾后建筑坍塌过程模拟

为了解飞机撞击超高层建筑后致使建筑坍塌或倾倒过程,基于颗粒流理论进行了该过程模拟,包括飞机撞击、油箱爆炸、火灾和建筑坍塌过程。模拟分4个阶段:初始至撞击、撞击至油箱爆炸、爆炸至火灾、建筑坍塌至结束。引入了颗粒流爆炸模型和考虑钢混等效结构的火灾模型。分别在建筑高程250 m和100 m处实施了撞击模拟。结果表明,不同的撞击高度所造成的建筑破坏效果和过程有同有异。共同点是飞机的撞击并不是建筑破坏的直接原因。飞机油箱爆炸破坏了外围框架,也造成核心筒结构的损伤,因此爆炸是建筑破坏的起因。不同点是250 m撞击时爆炸引起的火灾加速了上部建筑的倾倒,但最终撞击处下部建筑结构仍完整,这个过程时间较长。100 m时火灾几乎未起到任何助力坍塌的作用,建筑便已经开始不可逆的坐塌过程,该过程时间较短。     

公路隧道内纵向通风对火灾参数影响的试验研究

公路隧道发生火灾时易造成严重后果,纵向通风作为火场排烟降温的常用措施会改变燃烧的火源功率及相关火灾参数,影响公路隧道通风排烟的设计。利用按照弗洛德相似性原理自行设计建造的公路隧道火灾烟气输运特性研究试验台,研究了不同纵向通风风速下燃料火源功率、火焰形状和烟气层高度、距火源2 m人眼高度处一氧化碳体积分数、隧道横截面竖向温度及隧道纵向人眼高度处温度的变化规律。结果表明,所研究的火灾参数与纵向通风之间呈现非线性变化关系,火源功率在纵向通风作用下出现"双驼峰"现象,随风速增大,火源功率、火焰主体长度与亮度的变化规律相似,平均燃烧速度与一氧化碳体积分数、温度变化规律一致。     

车辆阻塞效应下隧道火灾烟气温度及烟气逆流长度变化规律研究

通过数值模拟方法对车辆阻塞效应下的隧道火灾烟气温度及烟气逆流长度的变化规律进行了研究。主要分两种车辆阻塞效应讨论:1辆设定大小车辆障碍物阻塞;2辆设定大小车辆障碍物阻塞,且在同一车道。通过改变火源高度、纵向通风速度探究了车辆阻塞效应下隧道火灾烟气温度及烟气逆流长度的变化规律。结果表明:两种车辆阻塞效应下,随着火源高度的升高,隧道内顶棚烟气温度的变化规律相同:随火源高度的升高而增大。2辆车辆阻塞下的隧道顶棚烟气温度略低;两种车辆阻塞效应下,随着火源高度的升高,隧道内烟气逆流长度的变化规律不同。1辆车辆阻塞下烟气逆流长度随火源高度的升高而增大,而2辆车辆阻塞效应下烟气逆流长度随火源高度的升高而减小。     

What Matters Most: Are Future Stream Temperatures More Sensitive to Changing Air Temperatures,Discharge, or Riparian Vegetation?

Simulations of stream temperatures showed a wide range of future thermal regimes under a warming climate — from 2.9°C warmer to 7.6°C cooler than current conditions — depending primarily on shade from riparian vegetation. We used the stream temperature model, Heat Source, to analyze a 37‐km study segment of the upper Middle Fork John Day River, located in northeast Oregon, USA. We developed alternative future scenarios based on downscaled projections from climate change models and the composition and structure of native riparian forests. We examined 36 scenarios combining future changes in air temperature (ΔT_air = 0°C, +2°C, and +4°C), stream discharge (ΔQ = ?30%, 0%, and +30%), and riparian vegetation (post‐wildfire with 7% shade, current vegetation with 19% shade, a young‐open forest with 34% shade, and a mature riparian forest with 79% effective shade). Shade from riparian vegetation had the largest influence on stream temperatures, changing the seven‐day average daily maximum temperature (7DADM) from +1°C to ?7°C. In comparison, the 7DADM increased by 1.4°C with a 4°C increase in air temperature and by 0.7°C with a 30% change in discharge. Many streams throughout the interior western United States have been altered in ways that have substantially reduced shade. The effect of restoring shade could result in future stream temperatures that are colder than today, even under a warmer climate with substantially lower late‐summer streamflow.     

Public Perceptions of California's Exceptional Drought

While the exceptional drought in California ended in 2017, the state is expected to experience similar droughts in the future. Understanding how individuals perceive the causes and consequences of drought will help frame future communication and planning efforts. We surveyed a panel of Californian residents about their perceptions of the 2012–2017 drought. We found a major disconnect in how our respondents perceived drought and water use. Respondents perceived the drought as being caused primarily by climatic factors and underestimated the role human water use, particularly agricultural use, had in exacerbating drought. Comparing our respondents across the state and across socio‐demographics, there were few differences in concern about drought but several differences in how residents thought drought should be managed. Such research can help water managers communicate about the specific concerns the public has about future droughts, as well as address misperceptions about the relationship between drought and water use.     

Road Erosion and Delivery Index (READI): A Model for Evaluating Unpaved Road Erosion and Stream Sediment Delivery

The Road Erosion and Delivery Index (READI) is a new geographic information system–based model to assess erosion and delivery of water and sediment from unpaved road networks to streams. READI quantifies the effectiveness of existing road surfacing and drain placements in reducing road sediment delivery and guides upgrades to optimize future reductions. Roads are draped on a digital elevation model and parsed into hydrologically distinct segments. Segments are further divided by engineered drainage structures. For each segment, a kinematic wave approximation generates runoff hydrographs for specified storms, with discharge directly to streams at road–stream crossings and onto overland‐flow plumes at other discharge points. Plumes are attenuated by soil infiltration, which limits their length, with delivery occurring if plumes intersect streams. Sediment production and sediment delivery can be calculated as a relative dimensionless index. READI predicts only a small proportion of new drains and new surfacing results in the majority of sediment delivery reductions. The model illustrates how the spatial relationships between road and stream networks, controlled by topography and network geometries, influence patterns of road–stream connectivity. READI was applied in seven northern California basins. The model was also applied in a recent burn area to examine how reduced hillslope infiltration can result in increased hydrologic connectivity and sediment delivery.     

采伐与人工更新对红壤丘陵区森林面积和地上生物量的影响模拟——以会同县磨哨林场为例

我国人工林生态系统正面临着结构退化、功能降低等问题,迫切需要通过合理的森林管理方案实施有效的管理措施加以改善。本文以湖南省会同县磨哨林场为研究区,应用生态系统过程模型PnET-II和森林景观模型LANDIS-II,采用情景模拟的方式研究未来100年低、中、高强度的采伐措施以及人工更新对森林面积和地上生物量的影响。结果表明：（1）随着采伐强度增加,人工针叶林面积持续减少、森林AGB下降幅度加大;（2）人工更新措施能够使人工针叶林面积保持稳定,促进其AGB积累,有利于人工林更新与生长;（3）对人工林采取中等强度采伐且实施伐后人工更新的管理方案有利于我国南方以杉木（Cunninghamia lanceolata）、马尾松（Pinus massoniana）为主要树种的人工林地区实现森林可持续经营。     

基于热异常探测的北京水泥厂大气污染排放评估

为对水泥行业实现大气污染排放动态监测,反映污染排放的时空分布特征,提出基于热异常点探测数据的新型干法水泥气态污染物排放量测算方法.利用VIIRS热异常点的FRP(fire radiation power,辐射功率)参数结合水泥产业结构特点,建立FRP与污染物排放之间的定量估算关系.利用2013—2017年北京市水泥生产统计信息和热异常点探测数据进行了大气污染排放评估,结果显示:①利用热异常产品的FRP参数估算北京市水泥厂的污染排放水平,利用NO_x和SO₂排放量的统计数据对排放估算值进行相关性验证,二者统计值与估算值之间的相关性系数分别为0.65和0.63.②2013—2017年北京市所有水泥厂的热异常点数据与环境统计数据中水泥总产量、熟料总产量、煤炭总产量以及NO_x、SO₂和烟(粉)尘排放量的相关性均较好,相关性系数均在0.7左右.③自2013年以来,北京市金隅琉水环保科技有限公司和北京金隅北水环保科技有限公司的热异常点数均呈下降趋势.由于采取了减排措施,水泥总产量和污染排放量也均呈逐年减少的趋势.研究显示,基于热异常点探测数据的新型干法水泥气态污染物排放量测算方法可快速获取水泥厂的位置信息、热释放规模,结合污染排放因子可间接评估水泥厂NO_x和SO₂等主要污染物的排放情况.      

长江三角洲2010~2018年生物质燃烧中等挥发性有机物(IVOCs)排放清单

中等挥发性有机物（IVOCs）是一类重要的二次有机气溶胶（SOA）的前体物.其中,生物质燃烧是IVOCs的重要来源之一,但目前尚未包括在传统的排放清单中.本研究基于卫星火点排放清单（FINN）以及IVOCs/POA比例法对长三角地区2010至2018年生物质燃烧IVOCs的排放量进行估算,构建长三角地区2010～2018年基于卫星火点的生物质燃烧IVOCs排放清单,并分析其不确定性,为后续模拟长三角地区SOA的来源提供重要的基础数据.结果表明,在2010～2018年期间,长三角地区火点数整体呈现下降趋势,在过去3年（2016～2018年）火点数维持在6000次左右,较2016年之前下降了约60%.从火点数的月分布来看,火点发生最多的月份是5～8月,其次在10月有个小高峰.基于IVOCs/POA比例系数法的计算结果表明,由不同的POA/OC以及IVOCs/POA比例得到的长三角地区生物质燃烧IVOCs排放总量结果差别巨大,平均值为73.4万t（10.5～305.7万t）.基于蒙特卡罗的不确定性模拟,长三角地区生物质燃烧IVOCs排放量的不确定范围在-99%～68%之间.     

基于GSPA-IAHP模型的油库火灾风险评价

目的对诱发油库火灾的风险进行分析,保障油库系统的安全。方法将区间层次分析法(Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process,IAHP)和广义集对分析法(Generalized Set Pair Analysis,GSPA)相结合,建立GSPA-IAHP模型,构建三级层次结构体系,从原料及工艺、设备设施、管理措施、火源控制方面分析引发油库火灾的风险因素,并运用Matlab软件计算各项评价指标的权重,对各个风险因素进行重要度排序。结果通过分析得出影响油库发生火灾最大的6个风险因素分别是:明火、防火状况、防静电设备、防雷设备、原料危险性、工作人员素质。结论该评价方法对于油库火灾风险的评价具有适用性和有效性,并为后期的油库安全管理提供科学依据。