中国建筑火灾引起坍塌事故的统计与分析

为了研究火灾引起的建筑结构坍塌的机理,便于已有建筑的抗火防护和新建建筑的抗火设计,通过查询文献资料和新闻媒体报道,对我国建筑火灾坍塌事例进行了调查,对火灾坍塌建筑物的结构形式、层数和使用功能等方面进行了统计分析,列出了部分我国火灾史上1960-2005年所发生的火灾坍塌事例.调查结果显示,钢结构、特别是工业厂房钢屋架在火灾下较其他形式的建筑易发生坍塌;4～8层的民用建筑发生火灾坍塌的比例较高;工业厂房,仓库和商业建筑发生火灾坍塌的比例较高;民用建筑多发生局部坍塌;发生坍塌的建筑一般存在设计和施工不规范以及防火设施不合格等情况.     

PCDD/Fs in ambient air collected in Zagreb, Croatia

Levels of PCDD/Fs were measured at four different sites in Zagreb, capital of Croatia. Also one sample was taken during spontaneously initiated open fire on a landfill and one sample where garden waste of unknown content was burnt. Over period 1997–2000, 28 samples were collected and levels ranged between 9 and 306 fg I-TEQ m⁻³, except in the sample collected during landfill fire. Air PCDD/F levels in Zagreb at four sites were different and the highest levels were observed in industrial area. Seasonal variation of levels is also evident with higher levels in winter than in summer. Our results show that PCDD/F levels in ambient air collected in Zagreb are at lower end of the published data range. In general, homologue profiles were quite similar for all locations, the concentration of PCDD homologues increased while the concentration of PCDF homologues decreased with increasing degree of chlorination. PCDD/F levels in the landfill fire sample was 13 200 fg I-TEQ m⁻³ which are much higher than levels in garden waste burning sample or in sample collected at industrial site. During landfill fire, the concentration of 2,3,7,8-TCDF becomes even higher than the concentration of OCDF and is equal to the concentration of 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF.     

HYDROLOGICAL UNDERSTANDING AND SOCIETAL ACTION1

ABSTRACT: Hydrology is both an applied practical science and a pure geophysical science. The goal of hydrology, as a geophysical science, is to achieve theories capable of explaining with satisfactory accuracy the phenomena of interest. Through the rapidly accelerating power and versatility of digital computing technology, theory development and application are immensely facilitated via increasingly sophisticated predictive modeling schemes, which are now the principal operating tools both for applied management hydrology and for basic geophysical hydrology. While this approach treats phenomena as classes or generalizations, social and behavioral scientists have long argued that human beings base their actions on percepts, i.e., on the concrete specifics of their experience. Thus, the commonly held ideal of basing policy, decisions, and public actions on the best possible science encounters a conflict in belief systems. A possible resolution of this dilemma lies in the use of observational components, which in concept-centered science serve as data to test or calibrate models. These components also serve as a great repository of natural experience that is closely attuned to the perceptual reality that propels societal action. Landscapes and sediments provide indices of real processes, whose occurrence can be expected by continuity to extend to present and future activity. More attention to research on such indices is warranted as a means of triggering perception-based action by responsible decision-makers. Grounded in reality, and tempered by their intrinsic fallibility, the scientifically powerful conceptual schemes (models) will then serve as guides to further action. The full societal benefit of hydrological science requires a balanced approach in which subdisciplines focused on environmental indices are afforded equal attention to those focused on conceptual idealization.     

Estimation of the impact of oil palm plantation establishment on greenhouse gas balance

Estimates of emissions indicate that if tropical grassland is rehabilitated by oil palm plantations, carbon fixation in plantation biomass and soil organic matter not only neutralises emissions caused by grassland conversion, but also results in the net removal of about 135 Mg carbon dioxide per hectare from the atmosphere. In contrast, the emission from forest conversion clearly exceeds the potential carbon fixation of oil palm plantings. Forest conversion on mineral soils to promote continued oil palm mono cropping causes a net release of approximately 650 Mg carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, while the emission from peat forest conversion is even higher due to the decomposition of drained peat and the resulting emission of carbon oxide and nitrous oxide. The conversion of one hectare of forest on peat releases over 1,300 Mg carbon dioxide equivalents during the first 25-year cycle of oil palm growth. Depending on the peat depth, continuous decomposition augments the emission with each additional cycle at a magnitude of 800 Mg carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare. The creation of ‘flexibility mechanisms’ such as the clean development mechanism and emission trading in the Kyoto Protocol could incorporate plantations as carbon sinks in the effort to meet emission targets. Thus, for the oil palm industry, grassland rehabilitation is an option to preserve natural forest, avoid emissions and, if the sequestered carbon becomes tradable, an opportunity to generate additional revenue. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Pollution-induced successions in forests of the Kola Peninsula

Trends of changes in the successional status of northern taiga forests exposed to technogenic pollution in the Kola Peninsula are discussed. Main studies of digression in spruce and pine forests are characterized on the basis of the dynamics of species composition of phytocenoses and chemical composition of atmospheric fallout, soils, and dominant plants.     

A Matrix‐Calibrated Species‐Area Model for Predicting Biodiversity Losses Due to Land‐Use Change

Abstract: Application of island biogeography theory to prediction of species extinctions resulting from habitat loss is based on the assumption that the transformed landscape matrix is completely inhospitable to the taxa considered, despite evidence demonstrating the nontrivial influence of matrix on populations within habitat remnants. The island biogeography paradigm therefore needs refining to account for specific responses of taxa to the area of habitat “islands” and to the quality of the surrounding matrix. We incorporated matrix effects into island theory by partitioning the slope (z value) of species–area relationships into two components: γ, a constant, and σ, a measure of taxon‐specific responses to each component of a heterogeneous matrix. We used our matrix‐calibrated model to predict extinction and endangerment of bird species resulting from land‐use change in 20 biodiversity hotspots and compared these predictions with observed numbers of extinct and threatened bird species. We repeated this analysis with the conventional species–area model and the countryside species–area model, considering alternative z values of 0.35 (island) or 0.22 (continental). We evaluated the relative strength of support for each of the five candidate models with Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The matrix‐calibrated model had the highest AIC weight (w_i = 89.21%), which means the weight of evidence in support of this model was the optimal model given the set of candidate models and the data. In addition to being a valuable heuristic tool for assessing extinction risk, our matrix‐calibrated model also allows quantitative assessment of biodiversity benefits (and trade‐offs) of land‐management options in human‐dominated landscapes. Given that processes of secondary regeneration have become more widespread across tropical regions and are predicted to increase, our matrix‐calibrated model will be increasingly appropriate for practical conservation in tropical landscapes.     

钢筋混凝土梁在火侵袭下的反应分析

结构物在大火侵袭下，结构内部温度和结构挠度、内力将随时间发生不断变化，这种变化极为复杂。本文在试验研究的基础上，采用非线性有限元法，着重研究钢筋混凝土梁在火侵袭作用下其温度和挠度的反应，提出了一种理论分析方法，编制了计算机程序，对钢筋混凝土梁的温度、挠度和内力的反应进行了计算，并得到试验结果的验证。     

中国的消防工作现状分析

建国四十多年来，我国的消防工作取得了巨大的成就。但是，近几年的火灾形势是严峻的。本文基于八十年代中期至１９９４年的火灾统计数据，总结了火灾发生的规律，阐述了近几年火灾形势发展的新动向。分析表明，由于现行的消防工作没能与社会协调发展，是造成近几年火灾急剧上升的主要原因。消防工作的当务之急，就是解决在新形势下暴露出的问题：如建立和完善与新国情相适应的消防法制管理体系；消防管理部门吸收社会上的科技专家共同开展消防咨询和监督工作；开展针对目前形势下的火灾探测、报警及扑救装备的研究；努力改善消防人员的装备条件以提高战斗力，等等。本文最后指出，为吸取近几年火灾带给我们的血的教训，避免今后消防工作再次出现落后于社会发展的局面，有必要对未来可能出现的火灾方面的新问题作预测，并对这些问题作一些超前研究，以达到防患于未然的目的。     

POSTFIRE SUSPENDED SEDIMENT FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK,WYOMING1

ABSTRACT: Wildfires in 1988 burned over 2000 square miles of the greater Yellowstone area in Montana and Wyoming in the largest fires in the history of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). A four-year postfire study to estimate fire-related changes in suspended sediment transport on the Yellowstone River and its principal tributary in YNP, the Lamar River, benefitted from a recently completed three-year prefire baseline study. Both studies took daily depth-integrated samples from April through September. Fire-related changes in suspended sediment were distinguished from natural climatic variations by two methods: comparison of forecast postfire sediment loads estimated with prefire sediment-rating equations to measured postfire loads; and by postfire changes in suspended sediment load expressed per unit volume runoff. Both methods indicated postfire sediment increases that varied according to season. The higher elevation Lamar River basin had little postfire increase in spring snowmelt season sediment but large increases in summer sediment load. The Yellowstone River had postfire increases in sediment load for the spring but did not reflect the large summer increases of its upstream tributary. The reasons for the difference in postfire snowmelt sediment response are unclear but may relate to basin elevation differences, the effects of unburned watersheds, and cooler postfire springs. The few high streamflow snowmelt events in the postfire period mitigated postfire sediment increases.