基于火灾统计灾情数据的城市火灾风险分析

进行参数估计简单假设观察数据服从特点分布,由于条件变化,实际计算过程中往往出现不同状况下获得的数据服从不同分布的情况,从而存在假设与实际情况差异.本文介绍了信息扩散原理及其计算过程,信息扩散过程可以将一个孤立的观测值变成一个模糊集.利用上述特性,结合城市火灾统计数据给出了城市火灾风险的评估过程,确定了某市发生火灾后的损失率及其超越概率,为城市消防规划提供了技术参考.     

火灾情况下不同楼层对大学生疏散心理和行为反应影响的研究

火灾情况下不同楼层对大学生疏散心理和行为反应有重要影响.选择住宿的高职学生1141人作被试,采用统计分析法对不同楼层的学生进行问卷后统计分析结果显示:在火灾情景下,学生居住的楼层越高,从众心理越强,从众心理有随着楼层的增高而增强的趋势;楼层较高的学生比楼层较低的学生适应性行为多,会采取灭火行为,能做到就近逃生等;楼层最低的学生比楼层最高的学生能很快的表现出帮助他人脱离火场的能力和行为,但是楼层最高的学生比楼层居中的学生相互救助的意识强;楼层居中的学生比楼层较高的学生存在较强的惊慌心理.     

运材道路修建的安全技术

从安全角度提出了关于各类地区、各等级的汽车运材公路的主要技术指标，阐述了道路环境与行车安全的关系，提出了运材道路的防雪、防滑和冰湖防治的具体措施。     

Aerosol Number Concentrations during Kosa Events on Suburban Hills in Japan

Measurements of aerosol size-separated number concentrations were performed in March 2001 on the Tama Hills of Japan, located near regions of heavy industry. The concentrations of particles larger than 1.0 μ m in diameter dramatically increased during the Kosa phenomena on 6–8 and 18–24 March. The number concentrations of coarse particles (> 3.0 μm) showed distinct diurnal variations, especially during the Kosa events. Fine particles smaller than 0.5 μm increased when the relative humidity was high and the wind speed was low. On the other hand, the coarse particles concentrations were well correlated with wind speed and temperature. The dry deposition velocity of the coarse particles at the forest canopy was estimated from the nighttime decrease in the number concentrations.     

RIPARIAN COMMUNITIES ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEADWATER STREAMS: ASSEMBLAGES,PROCESSES, AND UNIQUENESS1

Riparian areas of large streams provide important habitat to many species and control many instream processes — but is the same true for the margins of small streams? This review considers riparian areas alongside small streams in forested, mountainous areas of the Pacific Northwest and asks if there are fundamental ecological differences from larger streams and from other regions and if there are consequences for management from any differences. In the moist forests along many small streams of the Pacific Northwest, the contrast between the streamside and upslope forest is not as strong as that found in drier regions. Small streams typically lack floodplains, and the riparian area is often constrained by the hillslope. Nevertheless, riparian‐associated organisms, some unique to headwater areas, are found along small streams. Disturbance of hillslopes and stream channels and microclimatic effects of streams on the riparian area provide great heterogeneity in processes and diversity of habitats. The tight coupling of the terrestrial riparian area with the aquatic system results from the closed canopy and high edge‐to‐area ratio for small streams. Riparian areas of the temperate, conifer dominated forests of the Pacific Northwest provide a unique environment. Forest management guidelines for small streams vary widely, and there has been little evaluation of the local or downstream consequences of forest practices along small streams.     

The Impact of NTFP Sales on Rural Households’ Cash Income in India’s Dry Deciduous Forest

In recent years, researchers and policy makers have recognized that nontimber forest products (NTFPs) extracted from forests by rural people can make a significant contribution to their well-being and to the local economy. This study presents and discusses data that describe the contribution of NTFPs to cash income in the dry deciduous forests of Orissa and Jharkhand, India. In its focus on cash income, this study sheds light on how the sale of NTFPs and products that use NTFPs as inputs contribute to the rural economy. From analysis of a unique data set that was collected over the course of a year, the study finds that the contribution of NTFPs to cash income varies across ecological settings, seasons, income level, and caste. Such variation should inform where and when to apply NTFP forest access and management policies.     

人口密度对森林火灾发生频率的影响

人类活动是引发森林火灾的主要原因之一，在中国、日本等国家，90％以上的森林火灾是由人为因素引起的。为了量化人类活动对森林火灾的影响，本文基于日本的三级网格系统，对日本全国范围内近年来的森林火灾数据、土地利用率数据和人口密度数据进行了综合分析，研究了人口密度对火灾发生频率的定量影响规律。结果表明：森林火灾发生频率与人口密度之间呈现出幂律关系，经过一步的分析，发现两者之间存在具有边界效应的简单关系，即渐近幂律分布。本文的研究结果对于森林火灾的防治，特别是对于火险的预测具有实用意义。     

发挥地方资源优势,促进油茶产业化

本文对实行油茶产业化的必要性和可能性进行了详细论述,并为发展南方丘陵地方特色经济林-油茶林资源,促进其产业化提供了有利的对策。     

EFFECTS OF PRESCRIPTIVE RIPARIAN BUFFERS ON LANDSCAPE CHARACTERISTICS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA,USA1

ABSTRACT: Forest buffers adjacent to water bodies are widely prescribed in forest management to protect ecological functions of riparian systems. To date, buffers have been applied on the landscape uniformly without quantifying their effectiveness or the effects they have on landscape characteristics. Our objective was to quantify landscape characteristics (amount of edge and interior forest) when buffers were applied to water bodies in a 100 by 100 km area of northern Minnesota. We used a Landsat classified image in a geographic information system platform to apply two buffer widths ?28.5 m and 57 m — to water bodies, including nonforested wetlands, intermittent or perennial streams, and lakes. A total of 107,141 ha (18.3 percent) of the forest area was adjacent to and within 28.5 m of these water bodies, while 201,457 ha of forest was within 57 m, representing 34.4 percent of the total forest area. Imposing a 28.5 m buffer on water bodies increased the amount of edge and interior forest in the study area. When water bodies were buffered with a 57 m forest strip, we found a slight increase in forest edge from the current condition, and this buffer width resulted in the largest amount of interior forest. Interior forest increased with the 57 m buffer due to the density of water bodies in this region; adjacent water bodies coalesced when buffers were applied and formed isolated forest islands that contained forest interior habitat. Instead of wholesale application of set width riparian buffers, we suggest that ecological conditions of riparian areas be evaluated on a site level and that areas that currently provide important riparian conditions be maintained on the landscape with appropriate management practices.     

石化企业的消防安全评价

本以“石油化工企业设计防火规范”等消防规范和德尔菲专家调查法为基础，尝试进行石化企业内自然厂的消防安全评价。评价中，固定消防设施部分以各生产装置和储运设施为单元，各装置、设施的权重在道化学公司火灾、爆炸危险指数法的基础上确定；移动消防力量部分和消防管理部分以厂为单元，各指标的权重由层次分析法确定。对于各指标的评价打分，本暂不给出明确的分级标准，而是在各项指标下设置若干检查要点，专家根据实际情况与相关法规条的符合程度进行打分。最终采用线性加权模型得出评价结果，并根据各指标的整改效果排序确定整改的重点。