Stepwise multiple regression method of greenhouse gas emission modeling in the energy sector in Poland

The energy sector in Poland is the source of 81% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Poland, among other European Union countries, occupies a leading position with regard to coal consumption. Polish energy sector actively participates in efforts to reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere, through a gradual decrease of the share of coal in the fuel mix and development of renewable energy sources. All evidence which completes the knowledge about issues related to GHG emissions is a valuable source of information. The article presents the results of modeling of GHG emissions which are generated by the energy sector in Poland. For a better understanding of the quantitative relationship between total consumption of primary energy and greenhouse gas emission, multiple stepwise regression model was applied. The modeling results of CO₂ emissions demonstrate a high relationship (0.97) with the hard coal consumption variable. Adjustment coefficient of the model to actual data is high and equal to 95%. The backward step regression model, in the case of CH₄ emission, indicated the presence of hard coal (0.66), peat and fuel wood (0.34), solid waste fuels, as well as other sources (-0.64) as the most important variables. The adjusted coefficient is suitable and equals R² = 0.90. For N₂O emission modeling the obtained coefficient of determination is low and equal to 43%. A significant variable influencing the amount of N₂O emission is the peat and wood fuel consumption.     

Stepwise multiple regression method of greenhouse gas emission modeling in the energy sector in Poland

The energy sector in Poland is the source of 81% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Poland, among other European Union countries, occupies a leading position with regard to coal consumption. Polish energy sector actively participates in efforts to reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere, through a gradual decrease of the share of coal in the fuel mix and development of renewable energy sources. All evidence which completes the knowledge about issues related to GHG emissions is a valuable source of information. The article presents the results of modeling of GHG emissions which are generated by the energy sector in Poland. For a better understanding of the quantitative relationship between total consumption of primary energy and greenhouse gas emission, multiple stepwise regression model was applied. The modeling results of CO₂ emissions demonstrate a high relationship (0.97) with the hard coal consumption variable. Adjustment coefficient of the model to actual data is high and equal to 95%. The backward step regression model, in the case of CH₄ emission, indicated the presence of hard coal (0.66), peat and fuel wood (0.34), solid waste fuels, as well as other sources (− 0.64) as the most important variables. The adjusted coefficient is suitable and equals R² = 0.90. For N₂O emission modeling the obtained coefficient of determination is low and equal to 43%. A significant variable influencing the amount of N₂O emission is the peat and wood fuel consumption.     

Recovery and chemical utilization of carbon dioxidefrom fossil-fuel burning industrial sources

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江西峡江马埠地区Manica植物化石的发现及其意义

在峡江县马埠地区进行1：5万峡江县幅区调工作中，在原石溪组之下发现一套岩性底部为灰白色石英质砾岩与灰白色含砾石英砂岩互层，下部为猪肝，土黄，青灰色粉砂岩，含粉砂质泥岩，含碳质泥岩，间夹少量薄层细砂岩，发育平行层理，中部为浅灰色石英质砾岩与灰色粗中粒长石岩屑砂岩互层，上部为紫红色含角砾硫纹质弱熔结凝灰岩组合的地层，并采获植物化石Manica。其时代属早白垩世，其岩石地层单位划归石溪组下部。     

浙东沿海新元古代地层的发现及其意义

在浙东沿海大片中生代火山岩覆盖区的永嘉县枫林镇附近、地层时代原定为上侏罗统茶湾组（J3c）或下白垩统馆头组（K1g）的一套沉积地层中，首次发现较为丰富的、曾产于中国某些地区新元古界和俄罗斯陆台与西伯利亚陆台上里菲及文德系中的微古植物化石。据此．该地层时代应属于新元古代。从而为研究浙东沿海基底构造提供了重要而可靠的窗口。     

中新世水杉叶片和白垩纪松型球果化石中的挥发性成分

采用气相色谱-质谱联用分析技术从中新世水杉叶片和白垩纪松型球果两种裸子植物化石中分别鉴定了51个和19个挥发性成分,类型涉及烷烃、烷烯、烷醇、长链脂肪酸及其酯、邻苯二甲酸酯、萜类和芳香族化合物.其中3种成分——松香烷型二萜、饱和十七碳脂肪酸和惹烯是裸子植物的生物标志分子.图1表2参22     

化石燃料结构变化对大气中δ~(13)CO_2的影响

根据煤炭、石油和天然气等化石燃料的CO2排放量及其碳稳定同位素组成,用按比例叠加的方法逐年计算1860~1996年CO2化石燃料源的d13CO2(PDB),用简单全球碳循环模式研究该变化对大气d13CO2的影响,并将计算结果与CMDL近10年的监测数据进行对比.结果表明,化石燃料源的d13CO2在140年内下降了4.5,在碳循环模式中考虑这种动态变化之后,大气d13CO2的模拟结果与同期实测值的相关程度有较大提高.     

上海典型燃烧源铅和汞大气排放趋势分析

上海百年来快速的城市化进程导致资源能源的大量消耗,并向城市环境中排放了大量有毒有害污染物.为探寻上海典型燃烧源重金属大气排放历史及趋势,基于上海化石燃料(煤炭和汽油)的历史消耗量及其大气铅(Pb)和汞(Hg)的排放因子,估算了上海主要燃煤部门(燃煤电厂、工业部门和居民生活)和机动车燃油大气Pb和Hg的历史排放量.结果表明,1949~2015年间大气Pb和Hg的燃煤排放量随时间推进均呈现先增长后下降趋势,即1949年解放后快速增长的煤炭消耗和较少的烟尘控制措施使其排放量出现急剧地波动式增长,至20世纪80~90年达到高峰,此后上海采取了各种减排和控制措施,使得目前三大燃煤源的大气Pb和Hg排放量出现大幅度下降.1980~2015年间上海大气Hg的燃煤排放比例一直占据主导地位(87.5%~99.7%).含铅汽油自1997年完全退出上海市场之后,燃煤排放替代其成为大气Pb的主要贡献源(78.2%~83.5%),然而自2005年起随着汽油消耗的急速增长,汽油燃烧排放又成为其主要贡献源(55.5%~79.1%).     

The Impending Peak and Decline of Petroleum Production: an Underestimated Challenge for Conservation of Ecological Integrity

Abstract: In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak (“peak oil”) and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy‐related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario‐based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource‐constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century.     

控制温室效应的战略选择

尽管人类对温室效应和全球变化的认识还是很不充分的，但是继续拖延不采取措施是危险的，采取对抗温室效应和全球变化的措施是行不通的。只有在继续进行全球性科学研究的同时，积极寻求适应一定程度全球变化的措施，并立即着手减少温室气体的排放才是唯一明智的态度。化石能源是人类社会生存和发展的基础，既使用化石能源，又不排放二氧化碳是不可能是。首要的任务是减少化石能源的使用。