医院低碳经济管理路径探索研究

在建设两型社会的大背景下,我院积极探索低碳经济管理途径,通过实施‘‘四权分离物品管理机制”、全成本核算、打造数字化医院和低碳医疗等手段初步实现了低碳经济管理,并取得了极大的经济效益和社会效益。     

Lower Leg Injury Reference Values and Risk Curves from Survival Analysis for Male and Female Dummies: Meta-analysis of Postmortem Human Subject Tests

Objective: Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot–ankle–leg complex.

Methods: Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot–ankle–leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies.

Results: Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels.

Conclusions: These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments.     

我国危险化学品产业转移及安全风险分析*

为深入分析我国国内（不含港澳台,下同）危险化学品产业转移及安全风险,通过调研产业转移现状,统计典型地区产业政策、转移企业数量、转移时间及安全生产形势,分析产业转移带来的安全风险。研究结果表明:危险化学品产业转移呈现明显地域趋势,从以江苏、浙江为主的东部沿海地区向中西部等地区转移;转移时间集中在2个阶段,分别是:2002—2008年、2017—2020年;转移集中在精细化工、炼焦、煤化工等产业,医药等高端产业未发生转移;危险化学品产业转移安全风险主要表现在:“重经济,轻安全”现象突出、转移项目安全风险高、承接地基础薄弱、人才储备不足等方面;针对呈现的产业转移安全风险,提出相关对策措施及建议。研究结果可为我国危险化学品产业转移安全风险管控政策措施制定提供相关数据与理论支撑。     

Policy and Science Implications of the Framing and Qualities of Uncertainty in Risks: Toxic and Beneficial Fish from the Baltic Sea

Policy and research issues in the framing and qualities of uncertainties in risks are analyzed, based on the assessments of dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) and other ingredients in Baltic Sea fish, a high-profile case of governance. Risks are framed broadly, to then focus on dioxins and beneficial fatty acids, fish consumption, human health, and science-management links. Hierarchies of uncertainty (data, model, decision rule, and epistemic) and ambiguity (of values) are used to identify issues of scientific and policy contestation and opportunities for resolving them. The associated complexity of risks is illustrated by risk–benefit analyses of fish consumption and by evaluations of guideline values, highlighting value contents and policy factors in presumably scientific decision criteria, and arguments used in multi-dimensional risk and benefit comparisons. These comparisons pose challenges to narrow assessments centered, for e.g., on toxicants or on food benefits, and to more many-sided and balanced risk communication and management. It is shown that structured and contextualized treatment of uncertainties and ambiguities in a reflexive approach can inform balances between wide and narrow focus, detail and generality, and evidence and precaution.     

Substituting missing data in compositional analysis

Multivariate analysis of environmental data sets requires the absence of missing values or their substitution by small values. However, if the data is transformed logarithmically prior to the analysis, this solution cannot be applied because the logarithm of a small value might become an outlier. Several methods for substituting the missing values can be found in the literature although none of them guarantees that no distortion of the structure of the data set is produced. We propose a method for the assessment of these distortions which can be used for deciding whether to retain or not the samples or variables containing missing values and for the investigation of the performance of different substitution techniques. The method analyzes the structure of the distances among samples using Mantel tests. We present an application of the method to PCDD/F data measured in samples of terrestrial moss as part of a biomonitoring study.     

响应面法优化酸性玫瑰红B光催化氧化的影响参数

利用中心组合设计和响应面分析方法对影响UV/TiO2光催化降解酸性玫瑰红B的主要因素(初始pH值、K2S2O8浓度、TiO2浓度)进行分析.其中初始pH值、K2S2O8浓度和TiO2浓度的高、低水平分别为4-5.6,26-36mg·l-1和0.53-1.87mg·l-1,分析参数为脱色率的变化.通过使用Design-Expert 5软件可得到1个2次响应曲面模型,最佳的初始pH值、K2S2O8浓度和TiO2浓度分别为4.69,29.73mg·l-1和1.18 mg·l-1,脱色率达到最大(94.21%).     

生态位理论及其在城市竞争研究中的作用——以中原城市群为例

城市生态位作为生态学重要理论之一,可用于分析城市群内部不同城市间竞争、演化等现象。以中原城市群9个省辖市为基本单元,运用生态位理论模型,进行多指标的综合加权和聚类分析,得出如下结论:(1)就中原城市群整体而言,城市生态位偏低且呈现明显的层次分异;(2)中原城市群城市生态位空间分异表现复杂。综合城市生态位、自然生态位及人口生态位空间分异并不明显,而经济生态位和社会生态位空间分异却十分显著,其中经济生态位最为显著;(3)中原城市群缺少4个子系统都具有优势特征的城市,只有郑州独具2项优势特征,但其自然生态位较低,自然生态位是郑州城市生态位的限制性因子。     

集中空调系统积尘理化特征

利用现场采样与实验分析的方法,对集中空调系统内的积尘进行了粒径分布、水溶性碳物质及离子含量的分析,以评估集中空调系统内积尘对微生物滋生的影响.结果表明,集中空调系统除新风段外的6个采样段,积尘平均粒径介于6—20μm之间,新风段积尘平均粒径为41.30μm;沿送风方向,微粒的平均粒径减小,单位积尘量所含的水溶性离子和有...     

环境价值的循环模式初探

环境污染对环境产生的负价值与环境保护对环境产生的正价值相互作用、相互抵消的运动过程，体现了环境整体价值在人类经济社会活动影响下的具体演化模式。文章探讨了环境价值的循环途径、环境资源价值的模型，并对模型进行了具体分析，以期帮助人们提高对环境价值的认识。     

我国中部地区大气CO2柱浓度时空分布

基于日本GOSAT及美国AIRS反演数据产品,对我国中部六省大气CO₂时空分布特征进行研究,结果表明：由GOSAT反演的中部地区2010~2013年大气CO₂年均柱浓度由389.36×10^-6增长到396.52×10^-6,年均绝对增长率达2.39×10^-6/a,呈现出冬春季高值、夏秋季低值的季节变化特征,其柱浓度年均值及去长期趋势后的月均值均略低于长三角地区,高于京津冀和东三省地区;其CO₂柱浓度高值区集中在湖南、江西及周边一带,年均绝对增长率为2.01×10^-6,其柱浓度年均值及去长期趋势后的月均值与长三角地区相当,略低于京津冀和东三省地区,由于受地面源汇影响较小,其与GOSAT反演结果相反,可能是由于AIRS反映了对流层中层大气状况,而GOSAT则更多地反映了近地面层大气CO₂变化.