Reconciling multiple counterfactuals when evaluating biodiversity conservation impact in social-ecological systems

When evaluating the impact of a biodiversity conservation intervention, a counterfactual is typically needed. Counterfactuals are possible alternative system trajectories in the absence of an intervention. Comparing observed outcomes against the chosen counterfactual allows the impact (change attributable to the intervention) to be determined. Because counterfactuals by definition never occur, they must be estimated. Sometimes, there may be many plausible counterfactuals, including various drivers of biodiversity change and defined on a range of spatial or temporal scales. Here, we posit that, by definition, conservation interventions always take place in social-ecological systems (SES) (i.e., ecological systems integrated with human actors). Evaluating the impact of an intervention in an SES, therefore, means taking into account the counterfactuals assumed by different human actors. Use of different counterfactuals by different actors will give rise to perceived differences in the impacts of interventions, which may lead to disagreement about its success or the effectiveness of the underlying approach. Despite that there are biophysical biodiversity trends, it is often true that no single counterfactual is definitively the right one for conservation assessment, so multiple evaluations of intervention efficacy could be considered justifiable. Therefore, we propose calculating the sum of perceived differences, which captures the range of impact estimates associated with different actors in a given SES. The sum of perceived differences gives some indication of how closely actors in an SES agree on the impacts of an intervention. We applied the concept of perceived differences to a set of global, national, and regional case studies (e.g., global realization of Aichi Target 11 for marine protected areas, effect of biodiversity offsetting on vegetation condition in Australia, and influence of conservation measures on an endangered ungulate in Central Asia). We explored approaches for minimizing the sum, including a combination of negotiation and structured decision making, careful alignment of expectations on scope and measurement, and explicit recognition of any intractable differences between stakeholders.     

丝光印染废碱液回用技术的研究

印染企业丝光机排出的废碱液,Na0H质量浓度为3%～5%,废水温度在50℃～70℃,色度>1000倍,SS>400mg/L,含较多棉纱线等,为探讨废碱液回收技术的合理性及可行性,本中试系统采用"滤网过滤+板框压滤+陶瓷膜过滤+蒸发浓缩"的耦合技术,对丝光机排放的废碱液进行预处理及浓缩,中试结果表明,该技术可达到废碱液100%回用,处理后的碱液浓度可达15%～25%,SS<30mg/L,色度<100倍,达到印染行业丝光工序回用的要求。     

基于主体分级的社会救援资源分类及结构框架

社会救援资源是应急救援工作的重要资源支撑。从资源供给角度出发,给出社会救援资源的概念,并综合"社会"和"应急救援资源"范围的研究,界定社会救援资源的范围,继而阐述了社会救援资源的普遍特点和特殊特点;提出一种新的资源分类方法———基于主体分级的资源分类方法,并基于此方法,将社会救援资源提供的社会主体分为3类共10个主体,即第一类主体(大型国有企业、国家级慈善社团)、第二类主体(其他公有制企业、其他慈善社团、相关民办非企业单位、公民自组织形式)、第三类主体(其他所有制企业、一般社团、其他民办非企业单位、公民个人);在主体分级的基础上,从救援资源的角度将不同社会主体的供给力度分为强、中、弱三级,初步构造一个矩阵网状的社会救援资源结构框架。     

基于MDSF的河流水质预警

介绍了流域水资源模拟与决策支持框架(MDSF)的框架结构、InfoWorks RS水质模拟方法及水质模型。利用MDSF,通过节点、断面、连接等建模工具构建长江南京段水质预警计算网络,并采用2005年实测资料说明了水动力、水质计算的上下游边界条件和模型参数率定等方法。     

粘滞阻尼支撑框架结构弹塑性时程分析

对阻尼支撑框架结构的弹塑性时程分析方法进行了探讨,给出了阻尼支撑的力学计算模型;对地震动的选用进行了分析,给出了地震动选取的初步建议。建立了两个三层的单榀粘滞阻尼支撑框架结构,利用IDARC 2D非线性分析软件进行了弹塑性时程分析,对框架弹塑性阶段的地震响应、塑性铰分布及结构损伤进行了对比研究,提出了阻尼支撑框架结构的设计要点,为实际工程提供设计依据。     

中国杀虫剂类POPs生命周期评价方法框架研究

确定了中国杀虫剂类POPs生命周期评价方法框架,指出评价方法中的难点在于对人体毒性潜力和生态毒性潜力的计算,并提出了基于杀虫剂类POPs特点的改进方法。     

方钢管混凝土框架加固后的非线性有限元分析——受低周反复荷载作用

建立了加固后损伤方钢管混凝土框架的三维非线性有限元分析模型，用以研究该框架在低周反复荷载作用下的抗震性能。该模型考虑了钢与混凝土的黏滑作用。通过与损伤方钢管混凝土框架加固后的结构在低周反复荷载作用下滞回曲线和刚度退化曲线的对比表明，计算结果较为精确，该模型可以应用于方钢管混凝土框架的结构分析中。同时由试验和有限元分析计算的结果可知，损伤方钢管混凝土框架结构加固后，具有较好的抗震性能。     

Three reasons to use annual payments in contingent valuation surveys: Convergent validity,discount rates,and mental accounting

We present three arguments for using ongoing annual payments in contingent valuation (CV) surveys that estimate the benefit of a long-lasting environmental improvement. First, by matching the duration of the payments with the duration of the environmental benefits, survey respondents are spared from performing complicated present value calculations. Second, willingness to pay (WTP) estimates from CV surveys that include ongoing annual payments best match WTP estimates obtained using travel cost surveys. Third, respondents are less likely to face binding mental budget constraints with ongoing annual payments than with a larger one-time payment. In addition, respondents’ discount rates may be estimated by collecting non-hypothetical, individual time preference data as part of the valuation survey.     

海上溢油事故应急反应系统框架的研究

本文初步给出了海上溢油事故应急反应系统的总体框架，并介绍了海上溢油事故应急反应系统的五个组成部分及各组成部分的主要功能：溢油信息收集子系统、溢油模拟子系统、环境与资源信息数据库、溢油应急指挥中心、溢油应急处理子系统。该溢油事故应急反应系统具有功能综合、结合GIS和RS、决策支持等特点，可为建立海上溢油事故应急反应系统提供参考。