Probability and frequency calculations related to protection layers revisited

This article casts a new glance over some methods dedicated to the calculation of the likelihood (probability or frequency) of failure of systems and, in particular, safety-related systems working alone or in association with other protection layers. It consists first in examining with a critical eye the relevancy of the aforementioned methods, which are still often used in spite of their restrictive limitations, and second in proposing an alternative approach for each of them. The correctness of the examinated methods is tested by applying them to very simple systems modeled by fault tree models, with intent to show why these methods are debatable and how they can be replaced by other ones, more appropriate. The particular case of several protection layers having to react on the demand resulting from the global failure of their associated control system is considered. That case leads to revisit the common assumption of the independence between the above protection layers and control system, by taking into account the order of their respective failures from a qualitative and quantitative point of view.     

Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed: II. Long‐Term Research on Acetochlor,Alachlor, Metolachlor,and Metribuzin1

Lerch, R.N., E.J. Sadler, C. Baffaut, N.R. Kitchen, and K.A. Sudduth, 2010. Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed: II. Long‐Term Research on Acetochlor, Alachlor, Metolachlor, and Metribuzin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00504.x Abstract: Farmers in the Midwestern United States continue to be reliant on soil‐applied herbicides for weed control in crop production, and herbicide contamination of streams remains an environmental problem. The main objective of this study was to analyze trends in concentration and load of acetochlor, alachlor, metolachlor, and metribuzin in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) from 1992 to 2006. A secondary objective was to document the effects of best management practices (BMPs) implemented within GCEW on herbicide transport trends. Median relative herbicide loads, as a percent of applied, were 3.7% for metolachlor, 1.3% for metribuzin, 0.36% for acetochlor, and 0.18% for alachlor. The major decrease in alachlor use and increase in acetochlor use caused shifts in flow‐weighted concentrations that were observed over the entire concentration range. The smaller decrease in metolachlor use led to a consistent decreasing time trend only for the upper end of the concentration distribution. Metribuzin also showed moderate decreases in concentration with time since 1998. Annual loads were generally correlated to second quarter discharge. Despite extensive education efforts in the watershed, conservation BMPs within GCEW were mainly implemented to control erosion, and therefore had no discernable impact on reducing herbicide transport. Overall, changes in herbicide use and second quarter discharge had the greatest effect on trends in flow‐weighted concentration and annual load.     

城市路面径流污染负荷及采样次数对其估算准确性的影响

在西安市城市主干道南二环路建立路面径流原位采样站,利用自制流量等比例采样装置,采集2009年3月-2010年2月的36场降雨径流,测试各场次径流SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH4-N、Pb、Zn和溶解态Pb、Zn的事件平均浓度(EMC),计算径流年污染负荷,并采用随机抽样方法研究采样次数对污染负荷估算准确性的影响.结果...     

青藏高原东北部近十年臭氧总量变化研究

利用青藏高原东北部青海瓦里关站1997年3月—2009年11月十多年的臭氧总量地基观测资料,对臭氧总量的年际变化、季节变化、频数分布、低值频率等特征进行分析。结果表明,近十多年来青藏高原东北部大气臭氧总量略有下降,臭氧损耗减缓;各年的频数分布呈左偏态分布,且夏秋季节（6—10月）的臭氧低值频率与同期臭氧总量平均值呈现极好的负相关,这可能是引起其年均值较低的原因之一;该地区臭氧总量具有明显的季节变化,夏秋季的臭氧低值频率远远高于冬春季,冬春季节臭氧总量平均约为300 DU,夏秋季节平均约为270 DU,最大值出现在3月份,最小值出现在9月份。臭氧总量的连续观测与分析对青藏高原的生态环境与气候能够起到预警作用。     

接地系统危险辨识及其对策措施

接地工程作为一种电气减灾技术,在易燃易爆场所、变电站、发电厂及高大建筑物上都有着广泛的应用。该技术的使用可以有效地避免因过电压和人身触电造成的设备损坏和人身伤害,有效的接地装置可以减少生产事故的发生,但由于接地工程是一种交叉科学,涉及知识面广,生产的诸多环节许多致害因素常常被使用者忽视,而造成设备过电压事故和人身触电。因此对接地系统进行危险辨识具有重要的现实意义。本文将各类接地视为一个大系统,采用系统安全分析危险辨识方法对防雷接地、工作接地、保护接地、静电接地进行危险辨识,在安全技术与管理方面提出了对策措施与建议。文章最后,对接地工程技术发展方面需要重点解决的问题进行了总结,以便为接地工程与技术的发展提供积极的借鉴作用,更好地为安全生产服务。     

船上劳动安全风险辨识研究

针对船上劳动安全风险辨识的生产实际要求,根据查明危险源,风险评估、制定风险控制措施,降低因风险导致危险发生概率的理论,探讨了船上劳动安全风险辨识的基本原理,研讨了船上哪些作业活动需要进行风险辨识,以及在船上可操作的具体的风险辨识方法。根据研究结果,指出：影响船上劳动安全的因素仍然是人（船员）、物（设备、工具、物件、货物等）、环境（劳动环境和社会环境）以及管理这四大因素;船上劳动安全危险源的最佳分类方法是根据影响劳动安全的四大因素来进行分类;首次提出可通过对船上劳动安全危险源的打分方法,评价船上某作业条件下的劳动风险大小,同时指出船上劳动安全检查是船上劳动风险辨识的一种有效的辅助手段。     

5MHz～20GHz低相位噪声频率源的研制

低相位噪声源是一种频率准确度、稳定度都很高且相位噪声又非常低的频率源.本文在简要着重描述了VCXO压控晶振锁相源、高频单元、低相位噪声微波倍频链、低噪声直流稳压电源等低相位噪声频率源关键部件的设计和研制过程.所研发的低相位噪声频率源的频率范围从5 MHz至20 C Hz点频输出,在100MHz频率时相噪达-176dBc...     

Process safety aspects in water-gas-shift (WGS) membrane reactors used for pure hydrogen production

The syngas produced by coal gasification processes can be utilized in Pd-based water-gas-shift membrane reactors for the production of pure H₂. Pd/alloy composite membrane reactors exhibit comparative advantages over traditional packed bed reactors such as simultaneous reaction/separation in one compact unit and increased reaction yields. Furthermore, the development of comprehensive process intensification strategies could further enhance membrane reactor performance resulting in a substantially smaller and functional, inherently safer, environmentally friendlier and more energy efficient process.A systematic non-isothermal modeling framework under both steady state and dynamic/transient conditions for a catalytic high temperature water-gas shift reaction in a Pd-based membrane reactor has been developed to characterize the dynamic behavior of the process system at various operating conditions from a process safety standpoint. In particular, various reaction conditions as well as key process variables such as feed temperature and flow rate, catalyst loading, driving force for H₂ permeation are considered as they are critically related to various safety aspects in the operation of a Pd-based membrane reactor. Within the proposed framework, process parameters and operating conditions which may induce hazards and compromise process safety are identified, analyzed and characterized. Finally, the proposed approach is evaluated through detailed simulation studies in an illustrative case study involving a real Pd-based membrane reactor used for pure hydrogen production and separation that exhibits complex behavior over a wide operating regime.     

行人违章过街行为心理成因分析及预测

为深入了解行人在交叉口违章过街行为,调查影响行人在长周期信号控制交叉口违章过街的心理成因,采用计划行为理论(TPB)制作了行人违章过街心理行为问卷。利用此问卷,对上海居民进行过街违章心理研究,得到250个覆盖各年龄层的有效样本。信度效度分析验证了行人违章过街心理行为问卷能够用来解析行人的违章过街心理成因。在对问卷中自述违章过街行为和心理要素的聚类分析筛除明显隐瞒自身违章过街行为的行人后,对心理要素和现实行为违章行为进行判别分析。结果表明:问卷中2个TPB的心理要素:知觉行为控制和行为意向能够用来推测行人的实际违章行为,准确率为73.9%。其中,代表行人对交叉口交通情况和自身时间约束的心理要素知觉行为控制对行人违章行为有关键的影响。     

城乡融合评价研究综述：内涵辨识、理论认知与体系重构

科学的城乡融合评价是城乡融合工作的重要环节,是建立健全城乡融合体制机制的基础。以“内涵辨识—理论认知—体系重构”为逻辑主线,从城乡融合的概念内涵、基础理论、评价指标、评价方法、评价尺度及演化机理等方面,开展城乡融合评价综述。研究表明：学界对城乡融合概念与内涵的认识基本一致,且已有一定理论基础;城乡融合评价指标选取呈现多维化、多属性化特征,但指标体系构建尚未突破静态性层面;定量评价方法较为单一;研究尺度整体偏向中宏观,缺少微观视角下的量化以及不同融合模式对比研究;城乡融合的时空分异格局及其机理研究亟待进一步深化。对此,提出了以下五点展望：（1）加强基础理论体系建设,完善系统研究框架构建;（2）优化多维评价指标体系,识别城乡融合发展模式;（3）深化城乡要素流动机制,推动城乡空间均衡发展;（4）加强微观尺度细节挖掘,健全城乡融合推进机制;（5）强化数字经济赋能作用,创新城乡高质量融合发展机制。