分形维数在洪水分期的应用

分数阶积分是分形理论的一个重要分支,应用分数阶积分进行时间序列维数估计,其精度比box维数、量规法等方法高。在此方法的基础上,以金沙江上游石鼓站42年的流量数据为研究对象,对流量散点序列进行了分形分析,在初步证明洪峰散点序列是一种分形的前提下,将分数阶积分应用到洪水分期上,通过估算的维数确定洪水分期原则并定量划分了洪水的分期时间,论证了洪水分期的合理性,并将分数阶积分估算维数法与容量维数法进行比较。对比传统洪水分期方法,分形维数分期结果较为客观,受经验和人为影响较小,但是容量维数方法需要选择大量的洪峰点,分析计算的工作量很大,而分数阶积分具有运算方便、结果准确等优点,而且建立的分形函数关系方便进一步分析研究。〖     

基于PCA和M-SVMs的化学物质生态危害预测应用研究

为防止新化学物质投入市场时对生态环境造成危害,需对其生态危害程度进行评价。现有评价方法把各指标对生态危害的贡献看成是等效的,不能客观反映事实,且评价指标较多,指标之间具有较强的相关性,会降低预测精确度,为了解决该问题,文章将主成分分析和支持向量机相结合。首先运用主成分分析进行特征提取,降低数据维数,获取数据的主要信息;然后将二值分类支持向量机扩展到多类支持向量机,利用多类支持向量机建立化学物质生态危害预测模型,采用10折交叉验证法对模型进行检验,得到平均正确率达到89.24%。并与未进行主成分分析的支持向量机分类模型进行了比较,实验结果表明该方法具有更好的预测精度,值得推广。     

饮用水源地突发事故环境风险分级方法研究

为了从源头降低饮用水源地环境风险,建立了用于识别环境风险源、划分饮用水源地环境风险级别的方法体系.本研究采用数学模型量化突发事故潜在影响及环境风险水平,应用层次分析法和指标体系法确定分级指标及风险因子.方法基于风险化学品数量与理化性质分析了环境风险源源强特征,研究了针对不同受体的环境风险表征方式,利用分级阈值体现饮用水源地突发事故环境风险水平,形成包含"环境风险源初步筛选"、"风险评估"和"风险分级"三步的分级方法.最后,依据本方法评估了南京某化工园区饮用水源地突发事故环境风险,筛选分级结果表明,通过模型评估可表征饮用水源地突发事故环境风险水平,同时实现风险分级,应用例中水源地突发事故环境污染风险值为6128.3,根据分级矩阵可知该饮用水源地为一级突发事故环境风险饮用水源地.     

重大危险源定量风险评估技术研究

系统分析了危险化学品生产装置、设施或场所重大危险源辨识、分级及定量风险评估（QRA）技术,建立了危险化学品重大危险源定量风险评估技术方案;确定了“影响距离”法和“选择数”法进行设备单元选择的技术方法及设备失效模式选择原则;论述了事故后果分析、频率分析及风险计算的技术原理、方法和实施途径;解析了危险化学品重大危险源定量风险评估应实现的目标。     

煤矿安全管理体系缺失和不安全行为研究

现阶段我国煤矿的安全技术、生产设备都有大幅提高,但事故发生率仍居高不下,其主要原因是安全管理体系的缺失和存在不安全行为。为预防事故的发生,研究煤矿安全管理体系和不安全行为是十分必要的。为此,构建适合分析煤矿安全管理体系缺失和不安全行为的HFACS框架。按照HFACS框架,采用SPSS13.0对515起煤矿伤亡事故发生的原因进行整理分类,运用χ2检验和让步比(OR)分析安全管理体系缺失情况,不安全行为发生的原因,以及两者之间的内在联系。研究结果表明,安全管理体系缺失主要表现在管理文化的缺失和监督不充分,不安全行为主要表现在决策差错和习惯性违规。安全管理体系缺失是导致不安全行为的潜在根本原因。     

中小城市居民垃圾分类行为影响因素——以张家港市为例

为识别中小城市居民分类行为的影响因素和决策机制,本文构建了中小城市居民垃圾分类行为决策模型,并以江苏省张家港市为例,运用结构方程拟合与修正,分析了主客观因素对居民分类行为的影响,并与大城市相关研究进行了比较.结果表明：张家港市垃圾分类参与率达95%,高于一、二线大城市.对于张家港市居民而言,“行为意愿”是影响其分类行为最显著的因素,其次是“环保意识”和“社会影响”;“经济回报”和“法规影响”的显著性较低,尚未发挥应有的激励作用;“分类知识掌握程度”和“时间花费”的影响不显著.总体来看,主观意识（敏感性系数：0.629）仍是影响中小城市居民分类行为的主导因素,但在强制垃圾分类背景下,随着分类设施的建设完善、法律法规的颁布和社区管制加强,其影响作用趋于减弱,而客观环境对应的显著观测变量更多,对居民分类行为的影响逐渐增强,将是政府制定管理政策的有效发力点.     

我国生活垃圾分类发展历程、障碍及对策

推广生活垃圾分类收集与资源化利用有助于促进资源节约型、环境友好型社会建设.本文综述了我国生活垃圾分类发展历程;收集了国家和地方在推广生活垃圾分类过程中所做的工作;提炼出了生活垃圾分类过程中还存在的障碍和瓶颈;并给出了相应的对策.本文分析表明,我国生活垃圾分类经历了开始（20世纪90年代）、试点探索（2000~2015年）和快速发展（2016年至今）3个阶段.目前国家和地方正逐步采用可操作性强的垃圾分类方法、融合互联网+的宣传方式、实用性的法规章程、完善的分类收集-分类运输-分类处理循环链来推进生活垃圾分类,甚至生活垃圾分类工作还逐步向市场化方向发展.我国将走出一条切实可行、可复制、可推广的高效生活垃圾分类模式.后期加强全民参与及大众自觉回收的责任意识、出台更细化具体、操作性强的实施方案、重视学校儿童的垃圾分类教育、充分利用国内拾荒人员,对快速推进我国生活垃圾分类进程具有重要意义.     

The Quality of Water Resources in Dalmatia

The purpose of this study was to monitor and record the specific characteristics and properties of most of the important water resources in Dalmatia located in Southern Croatia for a period of 5 years (1998–2002) according to established standards for drinking water. The paper presents a detailed account of their chemical content, the classification and the concentration of salts. The bacteriological pollution levels are indicated by the total coliform bacterial levels (MPN coli/100 mL). The water characteristics are expressed by coefficients, which represent the ratios between water ingredients. The Ca/Mg eq ratio, SO₄/Cl eq ratio and K₁, K₂ for bicarbonate hardness were calculated. The hygienic characteristics of the water samples were expressed by the total coliform bacteria estimation (MPN coli/100 mL), the permanganate consumption (KMnO₄) and biological oxygen demand (BOD₅). Karst waters in Dalmatia are moderately hard, the SO₄/Cl ratio is 0.38–1.6, non-corrosive (K₁ lower than 0.2) and not significantly mineralised (< 500 mg/L minerals). Sulphate waters are generally hard, the SO₄/Cl ratio is higher than 1.6, K₁ is 0.2–0.65. Marine waters are quite hard or hard, particularly at the river estuaries, the SO₄/Cl ratio is lower than 0.38, and K₁ is higher than 0.65. The groundwater and springs in Dalmatia are less polluted than surface waters. A majority of these have a geometric average value of MPN coli < 150/100 mL of water observed in 24 of 42 locations studied. The highest bacteriological pollution was found in nine locations where MPN coli > 1000/100 mL and moderate pollution was found in nine locations where MPN coli is between 150 and 1000/100 mL of water. The physical and chemical parameters determined for the most sources in Dalmatia are safe below the international permissible limits.     

Landscape Change and Ecosystem Classification in a Municipal District of a Small City (Isernia,Central Italy)

Landscape changes taking place from 1954 to 1992 in the muncipal district of Isernia city (Central Italy) were described in relation to a system of ecosystem classification. Isernia municipal district was selected for study because recent historic changes in this area represent a typical example of landscape transformation similar to many small cities of Italy and other Mediterranean countries. To assess overall changes, three land cover maps (scale 1:25,000) were derived from panchromatic aerial photographs and field surveys. These were then digitalised in a Geographic Information System. A Land Facet (LF) map was derived by combining a phytoclimatic, a lithostatigrafic and a topographic map, and then digitalised as data layers in the same GIS. Results demonstrated two main landscape transformation trends: forest and semi-natural areas increased (8%), whereas agricultural areas decreased (12%). The urban area was relatively small during the entire analysed period, growing from 1% in 1954, to just 5% in 1992. Forest coverage was significant on reliefs, on hillside ecosystems such as limestone and on clay and marl hills LF. Arable land was particularly significant in flat ecosystems with deeper soils, such as on recent alluvial plain LF. These temporal changes were interpreted as being related to the replacement of traditional farming methods (grazing pastures) with more intensive methods (crop fields), especially on alluvial plains.