POLICY DROUGIT: THE CASE OF SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we review recent experience with drought in south Florida, and report some results of a study of the likely agricultural economic impacts of drought. Our conclusions can be summarized as follows. (1) Whether a period of low rainfall becomes a “drought” in south Florida is determined largely by institutional factors. (2) The impacts of a drought event are dependent on the rules the Water Management District uses to manage the event. If the rules involve effective reductions in irrigation supply, the financial impacts may be large, but are sensitive to the way in which cutbacks are imposed. (3) Current drought management regulations do not appear to minimize the short-run cost of drought. (4) Current policies which seek to minimize the short-run cost of drought are inconsistent with dynamically-optimal policies.     

INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS TO WATER MARKETING IN THE WEST1

ABSTRACT: Water marketing has been proposed as one means of reallocating water supplies in the western United States. While markets for western water currently exist and may be expected to expand, the institutional constraints within which the markets must operate will limit the ultimate size and efficiency of those markets. Lack of articulation of public interests in the water resource itself leads to incomplete definition of the private rights to use the water, and it is those private rights which are sold or leased in the market. The increase in size and efficiency of any market in water rights will be dependent on the willingness of legislatures to specifically define the nature and extent of public interests in water supplies, and detailed definition is unlikely.     

Earthquake risk reduction: An examination of local regulatory efforts

We develop an understanding of local governmental efforts to address earthquake risks. Our data for a sample of California and Washington cities' risk-reduction efforts sort into two different clusters of leading jurisdictions as contrasted with a cluster of lagging jurisdictions. We explain differences among the three categories of cities in terms of different political-economic factors. Local governmental willingness and ability to undertake risk-reduction programs have more to do with local political demands and community resources than with objective risk or previous earthquake experience. State mandates have a selective impact on local risk-reduction efforts. The principal policy lessons concern the need to address gaps in local risk-reduction efforts through more careful targeting of federal and state earthquake programs and by including stronger teeth within state mandates.     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

Small towns in the united states: a perspective

Small towns are an important part of the rural settlement fabric in the United States, but there is very little substantive research into their capacity to survive or their intrinsic importance. However, recently there has been increasing interest shown by social scientists in these problems. This paper looks at features of this research from the point of view of the population and economic structure of small towns. It concludes by arguing that the problems of small towns are not indigenous to the towns, and calls for a comprehensive national urban policy.     

SIMULATION AND DECISIONMAKING: THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN NEBRASKA1

Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication.     

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: COMBINING NOMINAL GROUP PROCESS AND MICROCOMPUTERS1

ABSTRACT: The growing concern for public participation in water resource decision-making has invited researchers to improve and develop reliable, quick, and inexpensive techniques for measuring public preferences. It is increasingly clear that traditional participation mechanisms, though useful, are no longer sufficient in providing the level of participation desired by many. A combination of microcomputer technology with Nominal Group Process (a step-by-step process ending in ranked recommendations) offers numerous possibilities for active participatory planning. Efforts at participation occurring through a well developed and defined process cannot be successful without a sensitivity to the conceptual, methodological, and pragmatic problems involved. This paper prefaces presentation of an alternative active process technique with discussion of the theoretical basis of participatory democracy and the frustration with practical implementation procedures.     

Indonesia's developing forest industry

Indonesia is a major exporter of tropical hardwoods. The country's goal is to establish integrated wood industries by reducing the export of unprocessed sawlogs. The value of hardwood sawlog exports has decreased by twothirds in 1986 dollars since 1978, while the value of hardwood sawnwood and plywood exports has increased sixfold. Sawlog exports are now banned. This article contrasts the official governmental policy on forest industry development with the operational realities of doing business in Indonesia.     

Riera de Caldes new town: the restriction of growth

The historical and regional context to the development of a planning strategy for Barcelona is examined, providing an explanation of the obstacles to development of new towns in the region, and that of Riera de Caldes in particular. The paper analyses the reasons for the failure to develop the new town, and its subsequent reversion to rural uses and a place of pilgrimage for environmentalists.     

APPROACHES TO WATER RESOURCE POLICY AND PLANNING IN TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Texas is one of the states in which limitations in water supplies could severely constrain economic growth in certain areas. The traditional planning approach for addressing this problem has involved devising schemes for large water development projects, which for many years included the importation of water from other states. Now the attitude towards water resource management is changing, and it is generally agreed that better management of existing supplies is the preferred approach. In this paper we review some of the changes that have recently occurred in Texas, including attempts to streamline the water institutions in such a way that they might be more responsive to the need for more comprehensive management of water resources statewide, with greater emphasis on social and environmental concerns.