清洁发展机制与中国对策

清洁发展机制是应对气候变化国际法律制度之下的补充性履约措施。通过阐述清洁发展机制的渊源、清洁发展机制的实质内涵和基本特征,总结中国清洁发展机制项目实践,揭示中国应用清洁发展机制的偏差,预测清洁发展机制发展方向,指出中国将被迫退出清洁发展机制,提出中国面向清洁发展机制的具体对策。     

“十一五”期间辽河铁岭段及支流水质变化趋势

用Daniel的Spearman秩相关系数法对辽河铁岭段及支流在"十一五"期间水质进行趋势检验,确定各监测断面超标污染物及综合污染指数上升或下降趋势的显著性,结合铁岭市"十一五"期间的污染治理措施,分析各项污染物产生变化的原因,提出了今后的工作方向,为进一步加强环境管理提供了依据。     

我国沙尘暴的气候成因及未来发展趋势

利用EOF和环流合成统计方法,分析了我国北方近40年来沙尘暴日数变化的时空异常特征及其气候成因.结果表明,20世纪80年代以来的太阳活动加强,全球气候变暖,青藏高原地面加热场强度加强,欧亚西风急流轴北移,西太平洋副热带高压偏北偏西,强度加强,蒙古气旋减弱,西北西部的沙尘源区降水增加,是中国北方沙尘暴减少的主要原因.20世纪末到21世纪初太阳活动进入新一轮的减弱期,引起气候变暖趋势减弱,气温逐渐降低,青藏高原地面加热场强度减弱,蒙古气旋逐渐加强.预计未来中国北方沙尘暴将在波动中逐渐增加,进入新一轮的相对活跃期.     

1991—2004年东亚温室气体浓度特征及变化趋势

利用NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory提供的1991─2004年Tae-ahn(韩国),Ulaan Uul(蒙古)以及瓦里关(中国)的大气温室气体CO₂和CH₄的数据,对东亚地区大气温室气体的浓度特征及变化趋势进行研究.结果表明:14年来东亚地区大气中φ(CO₂)和φ(CH₄)月和年平均值总体呈明显上升趋势;3个监测站的φ(CO₂)年线性递增率比较接近,平均值为1.91×10-6a-1,季节变化较一致;从沿海到内陆这2种温室气体的浓度均随海拔升高而逐渐降低.      

Impact of continental margins in the Mediterranean Sea: Hints from the surface colour and temperature historical record

The surface colour and temperature fields of the Mediterranean Sea, as appearing in time series, of basin-wide images available in the CZCS (1979–1985) and AVHRR (1982–1991) historical archives, differentiate between basin interior and continental margins affected by coastal patterns, river plumes, and mesoscale features. The original data were processed to apply calibration factors, to correct for atmospheric contamination, and to estimate chlorophyll-like pigment concentration and surface temperature. Composites were derived, as monthly and annual means, using a fixed equal-area projection with a 1-km² pixel grid. Enhanced pigment values and lower temperatures along the northern coastal areas (i.e. the Ligurian, Provençal and Balearic basins, as well as the Adriatic, and Aegean Seas) have been associated with the impact of runoff from continental margins (i.e. both a direct impact due to the sediment load and one induced on the planktonic flora by the associated nutrient load) and with vertical mixing due to the prevailing winds (i.e. the Mistral in the northwest, the Bora in the Adriatic, the Etesians in the Aegean). The pattern of increasing pigments and decreasing temperatures in seen to develop in the monthly images from the coastal zone towards the open sea from summer to winter, and then back from winter to summer. The southern coastal areas show different values, namely lower pigments and higher temperatures (except in areas where the data are altered by signal contamination). It is suggested that differences in geomorphology and meteorology of the basin margins have an impact on both water biogeochemistry and dynamics, influencing the biooptical and thermal properties of the various sub-basins, and of the entire Mediterranean region.     

竹林关大柴沟大型泥石流的形成机理与发展趋势

通过对陕西省丹凤县竹林关镇大柴沟泥石流进行现场勘查分析,总结了泥石流的孕灾背景,揭示了泥石流的典型特征和基本物理力学参数,在此基础上,分别从泥石流的物质来源、形成环境、诱发条件等三大条件分析了泥石流的形成机理,归纳了大柴沟泥石流具有典型的滑坡激发性、周期暴发性、强烈致灾性等特点,对泥石流的危险性进行了现状分析和预测评价。结果表明:软硬相间的岩层和强烈的构造运动是造成岩体变形破碎的主要原因,为泥石流提供了丰富的物源,垂直高差较大、沟道狭窄为泥石流提供了良好的孕灾环境,百年一遇的暴雨是大柴沟泥石流形成的诱发条件,同时受暴雨影响,沟内产生多处浅表层滑坡堵塞沟道,为泥石流聚集了能量,以至形成规模更大、破坏性更强的泥石流。研究过程采用了实测计算与经验公式估算相结合的多种方法进行对比研究,也充分验证了经验公式的适用性。     

基于文献计量法的火灾灾害研究现状及展望

为了解火灾灾害研究领域的发展现状及未来趋势,基于多种可视化工具,对2014—2020年期间,火灾灾害领域内的发文态势、学术合作、学术热点、研究趋势等内容展开分析。研究结果表明：该时期内,火灾领域发文量呈持续上升趋势;我国科研活力及持续发展性均处于世界前沿地位,中国科学技术大学是全球发文量和合作活跃度较高的机构;载发文量排名前5的期刊研究方向和出刊数量整体呈现出一定差异性和波动性;研究热点涵盖基于无人飞行器的森林火灾(野火)侦测调查、基于火灾现场整体模型搭建的计算机模拟火灾事故技术与研究、火灾下建筑物构件的耐火及倒塌行为研究、池火燃烧特性试验及现象调查、火灾碎片实验与分析方法,研究内容总体呈现具体化、精细化;目前火灾领域研究的前沿方向为热释放速率研究、基于数值模拟的火灾事故研究、对点火器(源)的调查研究、基于数值模拟的火灾事故调查等;根据分析推测该领域未来的科研活跃度将继续上升。研究结果可为火灾灾害领域内相关学者把握学科现状,研讨未来发展提供参考依据。     

Monitoring of environmental exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: a review

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a large group of organic compounds with two or more fused aromatic rings. They have a relatively low solubility in water, but are highly lipophilic. Most of the PAHs with low vapour pressure in the air are adsorbed on particles. When dissolved in water or adsorbed on particulate matter, PAHs can undergo photodecomposition when exposed to ultraviolet light from solar radiation. In the atmosphere, PAHs can react with pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, yielding diones, nitro- and dinitro-PAHs, and sulfonic acids, respectively. PAHs may also be degraded by some microorganisms in the soil. PAHs are widespread environmental contaminants resulting from incomplete combustion of organic materials. The occurrence is largely a result of anthropogenic emissions such as fossil fuel-burning, motor vehicle, waste incinerator, oil refining, coke and asphalt production, and aluminum production, etc. PAHs have received increased attention in recent years in air pollution studies because some of these compounds are highly carcinogenic or mutagenic. Eight PAHs (Car-PAHs) typically considered as possible carcinogens are: benzo(a)anthracene, chrysene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P), dibenzo(a,h)anthracene, indeno(1,2,3-cd)pyrene and benzo(g,h,i)perylene. In particular, benzo(a)pyrene has been identified as being highly carcinogenic. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has promulgated 16 unsubstituted PAHs (EPA-PAH) as priority pollutants. Thus, exposure assessments of PAHs in the developing world are important. The scope of this review will be to give an overview of PAH concentrations in various environmental samples and to discuss the advantages and limitations of applying these parameters in the assessment of environmental risks in ecosystems and human health. As it well known, there is an increasing trend to use the behavior of pollutants (i.e. bioaccumulation) as well as pollution-induced biological and biochemical effects on human organisms to evaluate or predict the impact of chemicals on ecosystems. Emphasis in this review will, therefore, be placed on the use of bioaccumulation and biomarker responses in air, soil, water and food, as monitoring tools for the assessment of the risks and hazards of PAH concentrations for the ecosystem, as well as on its limitations.     

中国SO_2排放对日本SO_2浓度及硫沉降的影响

利用相关文献及来自酸沉降网的中、日两国各观测站点的SO2监测资料,分析了近十年来中国SO2的污染现状、趋势及排放量对下风向日本各观测站点SO2浓度及硫沉降量的影响。结果表明,通过文献分析可知,2001—2009中国的SO2年均质量浓度分布在40~50μg/m3,总体呈下降趋势;中国部分城市的SO2年均浓度与中国SO2排放量的相关性总体高于日本各观测站点的SO2年均浓度与中国SO2排放量的相关性,中国的SO2排放对日本各观测站点的SO2年均浓度影响总体较小;情景模拟分析发现,中国SO2排放量对日本各观测站点SO2年均浓度的贡献率在7.5%~44.0%,平均贡献率为22.6%;中国SO2排放量对日本各观测站点硫沉降的贡献率在8%~41%,平均贡献率为22.1%。     

经济新常态下的“十三五”环境压力预测

我国经济已经从高速增长转向中高速增长的新常态阶段,经济发展方式从规模速度型粗放增长转向质量效率型集约增长,产业结构从劳动密集型向资金密集型和知识密集型转换,经济发展动力从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动。经济新常态下,环境保护将迎来难得的历史机遇,同时也面临严峻的挑战。为了深入理解和准确把握经济新常态下我国"环境态"的发展特征,本文基于中长期环境经济预测模型定量测算了2020年我国社会经济、能源和水资源以及主要污染物排放趋势和特征。结果表明,"十三五"期间,我国能源和水资源消耗总量增长将趋缓,新增消耗量进入涨幅收窄期;产业转型升级加速将从源头上减轻新增污染减排的压力,主要大气和水污染物排放将进入高位平台期,排放强度将呈现高位回落。