中国东部地区能耗和SO_2排放趋势预测研究

在系统研究我国东部地区１８个省、市、自治区近年来能源消耗和ＳＯ２排放现状的基础上，利用国际上先进的ＬＥＡＰ模式和排放系数法，进行了２０００，２０１０和２０２０年三个时段的能耗和ＳＯ２排放趋势预测。研究中考虑了三峡工程和核电等的影响和各省之间的电平衡，以及有关部门的最新政策和数据。将大型火电厂单独作为点源考虑后，ＳＯ２排放的结果采用科学方法进行了按经纬度的网格化，可以直接作为远距离酸沉降模式的输入文件使用。最后还分析了东部地区的硫沉降趋势。     

新时期中外高校体育教育思想发展趋势比较分析

本文介绍了德国和俄罗斯学校在体育发展的多方向、多功能的趋势，分析了我国高校体育教育的现状，从体育与健康课程整合的方面，提出高校体育应借鉴国外体育教育强国的思想观念，强调体育教改应重视学生身心的全面成长，贯穿“个体化、专项化、社会化”的思想。     

Time series analysis of elemental and isotopic data from biomineralized whale tissue

A temporal record of environmental conditions is often contained within accretionary biological tissue. These records can provide knowledge of the environmental conditions that existed at the time the tissue was formed. In this study, we look at trace element concentrations and isotopic ratios of carbon and nitrogen as contained in baleen from bowhead whales in the eastern and western Arctic Ocean. Time series techniques, including maximum likelihood method and likelihood ratio tests, are applied to analysis of data and inference about their mean structures.     

网络环境下信息检索语言的研究进展

本文通过对近年来国内外对网络环境下信息检索语言理论及应用性成果的研究，分析了检索语言的研究进展，并尝试性地对网络环境下这一领域的发展趋势进行了展望。     

网络环境下信息检索语言的研究进展

本文通过对近年来国内外对网络环境下信息检索语言理论及应用性成果的研究,分析了检索语言的研究进展,并尝试性地对网络环境下这一领域的发展趋势进行了展望。     

复合板的成形技术与发展趋势

介绍了目前复合板生产工艺的研究开发现状以及各种工艺方法的特点 ,探讨了复合板生产技术的发展趋势 ,认为连铸工艺是复合板技术的发展方向     

厦门西港表层沉积物中有机氯化合物的污染特征及变化趋势

利用GC－ECD对厦门西港1998年7月取得的8个站位表层沉积物中的18种有机氯农药（HCHs,DDTs)等和12种多氯联苯（PCBs)进行分析。其中有机氯农药的浓度范围ND（未检测出）－0．58ng/g(其中HCHs和DDTs的含量分别为ND－0．14ng/gND－0．06ng/g),多氯联苯的浓度为ND－0．32ng/g,与1986、1993年的厦门西港的分析结果相比较,污染程度明显降低;说明近年来的厦门的有机污染得到逐步控制,也与有机物随时间推移逐渐详解有关,分析表明多氯联苯和有机氯农药在厦门西港有着相似的分布特征。     

大气二氧化碳与未来森林

大气二氧化碳含量正在以每年０．４％的速度增加，对森林产生越来越明显的影响，对未来林业提出七个方面的挑战：温度变化、水的变化、气候变化、虫害和火灾变化、新基因的需要、造林与经营、加速研究进程，对此应尽快作出估价。     

Trends in summer sulphate in Europe

A trend analysis of the sulphate concentration in Europe in the summer half-year was performed. Data from various measuring networks were analysed, but only stations with quality assured sampling methods and a record of more than 10 years were included in the study. 1978 served as the reference year for the trend, because in that year most stations started operation. The relatively dense network in Belgium provided the most valuable data, as evidenced by the fact that two sites at a distance of only 10 km apart correlated better than 95% over a month. The two sites also show a correlation of better than 90% over a season with two other stations at distances of 45 and 95 km. The relative decrease in summer-sulphate at the four stations in Belgium, as analysed by linear regression, was 3.3% per year which corresponds to an absolute decrease of 0.42 μgm⁻³ per year. In the Netherlands the average yearly decrease in summer-sulphate at two stations was 3.5% (−0.34 μgm⁻³). In other countries stations were further apart or only a single site wits in use, which limits the representativeness of the data. In northwestern Germany, a region with several monitoring stations, a yearly averaged decrease of 3.0% occurred. The lower absolute decrease (0.25 μgm⁻³) per year compared to that in the two neighbouring countries reflects the lower summer-time sulphate concentrations. In the remainder of Germany the average decrease was 1.6%. In South-Scandinavia the yearly relative decrease at two sites was 2.6% (0.13 μgm⁻³ absolute). There was no significant trend in the U.K. Al the Polish station the levels increased, it decreased at the Hungarian and Austrian station and remained constant at the Czechoslovakian site. Reasons for omission of the data from France from the trend analysis are discussed.     

Bayesian testing for trend in a power model for clustered binary data

Developmental toxicity studies are widely used to investigate the potential risk of environmental hazards. In dose–response experiments, subjects are randomly allocated to groups receiving various dose levels. Tests for trend are then often applied to assess possible dose effects. Recent techniques for risk assessment in this area are based on fitting dose–response models. The complexity of such studies implies a number of non-trivial challenges for model development and the construction of dose-related trend tests, including the hierarchical structure of the data, litter effects inducing extra variation, the functional form of the dose–response curve, the adverse event at dam or at fetus level, the inference paradigm, etc. The purpose of this paper is to propose a Bayesian trend test based on a non-linear power model for the dose effect and using an appropriate model for clustered binary data. Our work is motivated by the analysis of developmental toxicity studies, in which the offspring of exposed and control rodents are examined for defects. Simulations show the performance of the method over a number of samples generated under typical experimental conditions.