湖北省化工园区应急能力评估

针对湖北省化工园区特点,综合考虑园区内应急能力的各影响因素,建立了化工园区应急能力评估指标体系。运用多层次模糊综合评价法,构建了化工园区应急能力三级评估指标模型。通过对隶属度的定量化分析,最终得出综合应急能力评价等级,为园区应急能力评估的进一步优化提供参考和指导。     

高海拔地区在役混凝土桥梁安全预警研究*

为准确评估高海拔地区在役混凝土桥梁的安全状况,对后续的运营及维修加固提供可行方案,采用模糊物元可拓理论对高海拔地区在役混凝土桥梁进行安全预警研究。首先分析混凝土桥梁结构特点及主要病害,结合高海拔地区特殊的地理环境对混凝土桥梁的影响,参考相关规范和高海拔地区桥梁安全事故的调研资料,确定出高海拔地区在役混凝土桥梁安全预警指标体系;采用组合赋权法中的“乘法”集成法,将G1法确定的主观权重和变异系数法确定的客观权重相结合,确定安全预警指标的综合权重;基于物元理论和可拓集合理论建立高海拔地区在役混凝土桥梁安全预警模型,运用模糊综合评判法确定桥梁的安全预警级别,判断出桥梁的安全状况,并给出相应的处理措施。最后通过实际案例,验证该方法的实用性和合理性。结果表明,该方法能够对我国高海拔地区在役混凝土桥梁进行安全预警。     

Treating design uncertainty in the application of Eco-indicator 99 with Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy intervals

In incremental eco-design improvements, design engineers attempt to modify an existing product via some eco-design measures to reduce the product’s environmental impacts (e.g. reduction of material usage and energy consumption). In this process, several design concepts can be proposed, and concept selection is required to allocate resources sensibly to promising design concepts only. In this context, the research purpose is to estimate the environmental impacts of each concept given the uncertainty of design information. In the proposed methodology, the fuzzy interval arithmetic is used to specify and propagate imprecise design information. Then, the centroid concept is applied to model different views of imprecision (i.e. pessimistic, balanced and optimistic) associated with fuzzy impact assessment. Accordingly, a decision scheme is developed to support concept selection and suggest the potential areas for further eco-design improvements. A coffee maker is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Also, the Monte Carlo Simulation is applied for the same example to compare the numerical outcomes by the fuzzy interval approach.     

基于非结构模糊决策的中国药品安全管理体系研究

基于安全管理理论和中国药品管理实践,通过专家意见和社会调查,确定中国药品安全管理的要素和决策标准;运用非结构模糊决策方法确定中国药品安全管理中各重要要素的权重,从而探索中国药品安全管理体系;对体系的不同要素进行排序。研究表明:影响中国药品安全管理的主要要素有,安全交易、许可制度、药品利润率、可追溯体系、药物警戒、应急管理;决策标准是,成本、经济水平、硬件条件、从业人员素质、消费者观念;重要性排序是,可追溯体系、许可制度、药物警戒、应急管理、安全交易、药品利润率。药品安全管理体系的建立和要素排序为政府监管提供了科学依据。     

基于模糊层次分析法的民用机场安全风险管理

以某一民用机场为例,基于"人-机-环境-管理"的系统工程理论,分析该机场影响飞行安全的各影响因素。利用三角模糊数来表征专家判断信息,构造三角模糊数互补判断矩阵。依据模糊层次分析法,对各影响因素进行单排序和总排序,得到其重要性的排序。模糊层次分析法可以更加客观地描述专家判断的模糊性,并且计算过程简单。基于模糊层次分析法的安全风险管理不仅能够客观地评估民航的安全状态,而且对于有重点地改善民用机场安全有着积极的作用。     

Fuzzy pricing for urban water resources: model construction and application

A rational water price system plays a crucial role in the optimal allocation of water resources. In this paper, a fuzzy pricing model for urban water resources is presented, which consists of a multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model and a water resources price (WRP) computation model. Various factors affecting WRP are comprehensively evaluated with multiple levels and objectives in the multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model, while the price vectors of water resources are constructed in the WRP computation model according to the definition of the bearing water price index, and then WRP is calculated. With the incorporation of an operator's knowledge, it considers iterative weights and subjective preference of operators for weight-assessment. The weights determined are more rational and the evaluation results are more realistic. Particularly, dual water supply is considered in the study. Different prices being fixed for water resources with different qualities conforms to the law of water resources value (WRV) itself. A high-quality groundwater price computation model is also proposed to provide optimal water allocation and to meet higher living standards. The developed model is applied in Jinan for evaluating its validity. The method presented in this paper offers some new directions in the research of WRP.     

A fuzzy analytic network process for multi-criteria evaluation of contaminated site remedial countermeasures

The Analytic Network Process (ANP) has been proposed to incorporate interdependence and feedback effect in the prioritization of remedial countermeasures using a hierarchical network decision model, but this approach seems to be incapable of capturing the vagueness and fuzziness during value judgment elicitation. The aim of this paper is to present an evaluation method using a fuzzy ANP (FANP) approach to address this shortcoming. Triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN) and their degree of fuzziness are used in the semantic scale as human judgment expressed in natural language is most often vague and fuzzy. The method employs the alpha-cuts, interval arithmetic and optimism index to transform the fuzzy comparative judgment matrix into set of crisp matrices, and then calculates the desired priorities using the eigenvector method. A numerical example, which was drawn from a real-life case study of an uncontrolled landfill in Japan, is presented to demonstrate the process. Results from the sensitivity analysis describe how the fuzziness in judgment could affect the solution robustness of the prioritization method. The proposed FANP approach therefore could effectively deal with the uncertain judgment inherent in the decision making process and derive the meaningful priorities explicitly from a complex decision structure in the evaluation of contaminated site remedial countermeasures.     

地质环境评价方法应用比较研究——以小秦岭金矿区为例

针对不同的环境评价方法在特定领域获得广泛的应用,但是在其他领域却又存在一定局限性的状况。本文选取了目前常用的四种环境评价方法：主分量分析法、物元评价法、模糊数学评价法、灰色聚类评价法,对各自评价机理进行了介绍,然后以小秦岭金矿区为例,将其应用于地质评价领域,根据得到的结果从四个方面对评价方法作了比较分析,得出了这四种方法在地质评价领域的优点和不足。     

积分分离模糊PID控制器在高温湿热试验控制系统中的应用

PID算法是一个广泛应用于工业控制的算法,但它对大惯性、大延迟、多变量的湿热交变控制系统实现精确控温控湿显得较为困难。本文介绍了一种基于模糊控制规则的积分分离模糊PID控制器,当系统调节开始时由于系统误差较大,系统的控制主要由模糊PD控制来实现;当系统误差较小时加入积分控制环节,系统切换为模糊PID控制,并将其应用于高温湿热试验系统控制,结果表明这种方法比普通PID控制精度高、超调量小,特别是对大范围温湿的变化具有更好的适应性和稳定性。     

基于网络的突发性灾害预警及救灾系统——以雪灾为例

自然灾害是不可避免的,为减少自然灾害给人类带来的损失,以ArcIMS为平台,引入模糊神经网络构建了雪灾预测模型,建立了基于网络的突发性灾害联动预警及救灾系统.系统可以自动/半自动地进行不同灾害等级的分类,发出灾害预警警报,并在此基础上结合气象对灾害诱发条件的预报,提出预防的工程技术措施,方便具有不同用户权限的用户使用.