基于模糊模式识别的模糊综合评价在高层建筑火灾危险评价中的应用

针对高层建筑火灾危险的特点,建立了高层建筑火灾危险评价的指标体系,并应用层次分析法确定了其权重。根据高层建筑火灾危险评价系统具有多因素、多层次的特点,采用模糊综合评价方法;针对模糊综合评价的不足之处,提出把权广义距离之和最小模糊模式识别运用到模糊综合评价当中,建立了基于模糊模式识别的模糊综合评价模型;该评价模型避免了单因素矩阵的确定和模糊算子的选择问题,用安全状态特征值来表征最终的评价结果,能使评价结果更加准确,可操作性强。通过对陕西某高层建筑火灾危险评价实例证明,该模型具有较好的应用价值,为日常的安全管理和性能化防火设计提供了有用依据。     

基于模糊理论的加油站安全评价方法研究

加油站安全状况是一个涉及多因素、多层次结构的非线性系统.本文针对加油站特点分析构建了加油站安全评价指标因素体系,并运用层次分析法在确定各评价指标因素相对权重的基础上,基于模糊数学理论,建立了加油站安全综合评价数学模型,并对该模型进行了实例验证,为加油站的安全评价提供了一种有效的综合评价方法.     

基于模糊评价法的建筑安全事故预测模型

针对建筑工程安全领域中许多对象具有"内涵明确,外延不明确"的特点,本文利用模糊数学对建筑安全事故影响因素进行度量,通过层次分析法确定各影响因素权重,提出了一种基于模糊评价法的建筑安全事故预测模型,解决了建筑生产中安全事故的即时预测,并通过实例给予说明,说明了模型在建筑安全事故预测中的有效性和实用性.     

基于FAHP的黄河中下游灾害系统脆性评价

首次将复杂系统的脆性引用到黄河灾害的研究中,并根据复杂系统的层次结构,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)对黄河中下游灾害系统进行了分析.由模糊层次分析法求得了灾害子系统的相对重要度排序向量,找出了极易使黄河中下游系统崩溃的脆性因素.结合黄河中下游的现状,通过对系统必要的脆性分析,为决策者提供重要的参考依据.     

Computing sustainable manufacturing index with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The growing industrial interest in adopting sustainability programmes has ushered in studies regarding sustainability indicators which have continually flourished in current literature. However, limited attention is given to the development of priority ranking, which is an important input for any adopting firm. This paper presents a hybrid multi-criteria approach in determining priority areas in sustainable manufacturing (SM). Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to address uncertainty in hierarchical decision-making, this paper determines SM priority strategies and eventually identifies even lower level strategies. The computed sustainable manufacturing index is presented at both the organizational and operational levels for a real case study of an industrial plastic manufacturing firm. This work provides a detailed and transparent hierarchical decision-making approach based on SM framework, the use of which could be valuable to practicing managers across industries in their pursuit of greater sustainability.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

基于T-S模糊神经网络的大沽河水质变化特征分析研究

基于T-S模糊神经网络,利用大沽河2010年-2015年水质监测数据,选取溶解氧、化学需氧量、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总氮、总磷对水质具有重要影响的6项指标,建立适用的水质评价模型,对大沽河水质变化特征进行分析.结果显示:上游水质评价结果明显优于中游、下游水质评价结果,网络评价水质等级变化趋势同真实指标数据变化趋势一致.验证结果充分表明了T-S模糊神经网络用于水质变化特征分析是可行、有效的.     

非点源污染影响下清河水库小流域水质模糊综合评价

针对铁岭市2011年饮用水源地清河水库小流域内水质状况,建立模糊综合评价数学模型,通过分析非点源污染对水质的影响进行水污染风险综合评价。目的是定量分析评价清河水库水环境质量现状和存在的问题。计算结果表明:清河水库小流域水质较差,水库入口、红花甸、聂家沟、曾家屯、腰堡的水质均属于V类水,说明水库水质已受到严重污染,而非点源污染是造成水库水质污染和波动性变化的主要原因和影响因素,急需进行科学的治理,否则将带来严重的环境、经济和社会损失。     

燃煤、燃气锅炉综合效益模糊评价及分析结果——以乌鲁木齐市集中供热锅炉为例

以乌鲁木齐市某集中供热站锅炉节能减排方案为例,通过建立供热锅炉实施方案综合评价指标体系,运用层次分析法确定方案各项指标权重,利用模糊综合评判法分别从锅炉燃煤、燃气情况下的环境效益、经济效益以及设施能耗、物耗等指标着手,进行综合评价,并对集中供热锅炉燃煤与燃气方案综合评判结果进行分析,最终评选出较优实施方案。评选结果表明:燃气方案综合效益较好,可有效实现节能减排,为今后燃气锅炉建设提供一定的参考作用。     

基于模糊数学方法的资源类企业环境绩效评价——以兰花科创为例

文章阐述了现有环境绩效计量模型的不足,分析统计了国内外有关环境绩效评价的研究成果及手册、指南和法规中高频指标,在此基础上结合环境指标和财务指标建立了资源企业环境绩效评价体系,运用层次分析法和模糊数学的方法对兰花科创进行实证研究,得出其综合评价结果为82.558分,应控制用水量和减少烟尘的排放。以期将企业为环境所作的贡献量化,促进可持续发展战略在企业的具体实践。