偏经济平衡分析模型在环境问题中的应用

当前经济研究中对环境问题越来越重视 ,已经有多种不同方法可以用来研究材料和物质流在经济中的运转 ,偏经济平衡分析就是其中一种。将PEA应用于一个单一的、假设的污染问题中 ,这样以实践的方式来评价模型的结果。结果显示 ,PEA模型能够寻找环境问题中最有效益的政策实施方法。     

Self-enforcing environmental agreements and trade in fossil energy deposits

The literature on self-enforcing environmental agreements (SIEAs) focuses on de- mand-side emission-reduction policies. To our knowledge, Harstad (2012) is the only study on SIEAs, in which countries purchase fossil-energy deposits to prevent their exploitation. He finds that for any coalition size there exists a (small) subset of parameters, different for each size, such that the coalition of that size is stable. However, the comparison of Harstad's results with the prevailing demand-side SIEA analyses is hampered by major differences in the structure of the respective game models. This paper develops a game model with a deposit market and deposit purchases for preservation that is in line with some demand-side SIEA literature. It turns out that either no coalition is stable or the grand coalition is the only stable coalition. We compare the outcome of our model not only with Harstad's model but also with Eichner and Pethig's (2015) model of the formation of SIEAs in which climate policy takes the form of (demand-side) emissions taxes.     

The marginal cost of public funds of mineral and energy taxes in Peru

We estimate the Marginal Cost of Public Funds (MCPF) for Peru using a detailed computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Revenues from all major sources (including taxes on factors of production, natural resources such as energy and minerals, consumption, and imports) are examined. Our focus is on the efficiency implications of mineral and energy taxes, given their importance to Peruvian public finance. The primary data are from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) as modified to include detailed tax information from the Peruvian Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Peruvian Internal Revenue Service. Consistent with the theories of public finance, we find that the MCPF is greater for activities that face high or widely varying tax rates. The taxes on energy and mineral activities represent a clear illustration of this relationship. The results presented in this paper indicate opportunities to improved efficiency in the current tax mix, and also indicate the financing costs of proposed expenditures that would be funded with taxes on energy and natural resources.     

基于F-H方法的冲突局势稳定性分析方法及其应用

冲突是一类普遍的社会现象,基于元对策的F-H冲突分析方法已经在水资源冲突管理领域得到了广泛的应用。在深入分析F-H方法原理的基础上,提出了一种考虑决策者对冲突问题预见能力的冲突局势稳定性分析方法,寻求冲突问题的均衡解。在局势稳定性分析过程中,当局中人基于个人预见水平不存在单方改进某可行局势的动机时,该局势对此局中人而言是稳定的。当全体局中人都认为某可行局势是稳定的,则此局势称为冲突问题的均衡点。最后,该方法被运用到湖北省宜昌市黄柏河流域水资源冲突问题中,模拟结果表明宜昌市水电局同时采取激励合作强化管理、东风渠灌区管理局增加引水、黄柏河流域管理局追求效益是最稳定的一种策略组合。提出的冲突局势稳定性分析为寻求冲突均衡提供了一种可行方法。     

基于信息熵的武汉城市土地利用空间结构变动分析

借助城市土地利用空间结构的信息熵和均衡度概念,揭示了武汉城市在20世纪90年代土地利用结构的空间变化规律,得出土地利用职能类型收缩、城市用地趋向不均衡发展态势的结论.利用主成分与灰色关联相结合的方法找出影响武汉城市土地利用空间结构变动的主要动力因子,它们分别是城市福利和城市社会结构变化推动因子、城市产业结构变化拉动因子和城市建设与改造压力因子,其中后两个因子是驱动城市土地利用空间发生变化的最显著性因子.     

自然资源对中国城市化水平的影响研究

采用一般均衡的方法,从供给和需求的角度,得出自然资源是中国城市化快速发展硬约束的结论。在自然资源约束下,资源最优配置的结果表明:城市化水平与城市化质量之间存在替代关系。在此基础上,对均衡结果进行了比较静态分析,研究表明:经济全球化有利于增加自然资源的供给,城市化道路的偏好直接影响到城市化水平。针对中国城市化快速发展面临劳动力转移和城市化质量提升的双重压力,提出了转变经济增长方式,城市化数量和质量并重的政策建议。     

基于现场试验的石油类污染物自然衰减能力研究

基于在北京地区某加油站开展的油类污染物自然衰减试验,通过氧平衡和碳平衡计算对加油站土壤内石油污染物的自然衰减方式进行了评价,利用一级衰减模型对该污染现场土壤中油污染物的降解速率和半衰期进行了计算,并在此基础上对该加油站包气带土壤的自然衰减能力和环境质量进行了评价.结果表明,该污染场地实际耗氧量小于污染物全部需氧降解所需要的理论耗氧量,检测到的CO2的量也远小于需氧降解的理论生成量;污染点石油污染物的半衰期约为50 d左右.根据以上结果得出以下结论：①该加油站地下土壤中实际发生的微生物降解既有需氧降解也有厌氧降解;②第一次监测时超过环境标准的苯浓度大约在250 d左右降至保护地下水的筛选值以下,污染点已经不存在环境风险,该污染现场的环境监控措施可以解除.     

Experimental investigation of the effect of sediment transport patterns on the adsorption of cadmium ions onto sediment particles

The mechanism of flow turbulence, sediment supply conditions, and sediment transport patterns that affect the adsorption of cadmium ions onto sediment particles in natural waters are experimentally simulated and studied in this study both in batch reactors and in a turbulence simulation tank. By changing the agitation conditions, the sediment transport in batch reactors can be categorized into bottom sediment-dominated sediment and suspended sediment-dominated sediment. It is found that the adsorption rate of bottom sediment is much less than that of suspended sediment, but the sediment transport pattern does not affect the final (equilibrium) concentration of dissolved cadmium. This result indicates that the parameters of an adsorption isotherm are the same regardless of the sediment transport pattern. In the turbulence simulation tank, the turbulence is generated by harmonic grid-stirred motions, and the turbulence intensity is quantified in terms of eddy diffusivity, which is equal to 9.84F(F is the harmonic vibration frequency) and is comparable to natural surface water conditions.When the turbulence intensity of flow is low and sediment particles stay as bottom sediment, the adsorption rate is significantly low, and the adsorption quantity compared with that of suspended sediment is negligible in the 6 h duration of the experiment. This result greatly favors the simplification of the numerical modeling of heavy metal pollutant transformation in natural rivers. When the turbulence intensity is high but bottom sediment persists, the rate and extent of descent of the dissolved cadmium concentration in the tank noticeably increase, and the time that is required to reach adsorption equilibrium also increases considerably due to the continuous exchange that occurs between the suspended sediment and the bottom sediment.A comparison of the results of the experiments in the batch reactor and those in the turbulence simulation tank reveals that the adsorption ability of the sediment, and in particular the adsorption rate, is greatly over-estimated in the batch reactor.     

AERMOD模型模拟城市生活垃圾焚烧厂二 英类物质扩散迁移

根据二 英类物质在常温大气环境中的固相吸附态比例约为90%~100%的特性,提出以颗粒物TSP和PM10为载体模拟二 英类物质扩散迁移过程,并采用AERMOD模型进行模拟.结果表明,100%和80%的气-固分配系数设置对二 英类物质扩散迁移落地点浓度和距离影响不显著,颗粒物粒径分布系数影响较明显.二 英类物质实测浓度值为0.23~1.66 pg I-TEQ/m3.以TSP为载体AERMOD模拟浓度值为0.13~1.81 pg I-TEQ/m3,以PM10为载体模拟浓度为0.15~1.68 pg I-TEQ/m3.两参数对模拟结果产生的平均总不确定性分别为24.31%和12.43%.AERMOD模型模拟值与实测值相对差比值为0.01~0.89,PM10模拟浓度值比TSP模拟浓度值更接近于实测值.     

南亚热带丘陵土壤水分循环及其有效性的研究──Ⅴ.丘陵土壤蒸散量的估算

根据系统实测资料,利用根层土壤水的变化量,按水量平衡公式反算求得观测年、季及旱月的土壤蒸散量.以三年平均及旱年土壤吸入水量减去蒸散量的结果显示,两个观测试区0～100cm土层蒸散量大于吸入水量;若以月平均计,则每月蒸散量大于土壤吸入水量3．84～8．60mm,土壤水的吸入略小于消耗,一年内土壤水量接近平衡．