南昌市PM2.5中铵盐及其气态前体物的分布特征与转化机制

在南昌市三种类型环境区域(混合区、道路区域以及郊区)开展PM_(2.5)中NH_4~+和空气中NH_3的同步采样监测,分析PM_(2.5)中铵盐及其气态前体物的分布特征,探讨氨气的转化与细粒子铵盐的形成机制,结果显示:2014-2015年采样期间南昌不同区域空气中NH_3浓度和PM_(2.5)中NH_4~+浓度较高;NH_3浓度存在空间分布差异,反映了不同环境区域NH_3源强的差异;NH_4~+浓度的空间分布表现为道路区域、郊区高于混合区,源于道路区域和郊区的气态前体物浓度高;NH_3/NH_4~+比值郊区道路区混合区,反映NH_4~+的形成受前体物(SO_2、NO_x)影响大;NH_3浓度春秋冬夏,说明NH_3源强受各季气象条件的影响大;NH_4~+浓度呈现秋冬高、春夏低的特征,反映不同季节的气象条件对铵盐的生成、清除和分解的影响不同;然而,NH_3/NH_4~+比值春夏秋冬,NH_3/NH_4~+比值季节分布与NH_4~+浓度季节分布呈相反的趋势;NH_3浓度昼、夜分布有差异,受昼夜间温差、太阳辐射、源强、逆温等多种因素的影响;NH_4~+浓度日变化各季节有差异;NH_3/NH_4~+比值日分布与NH_3浓度日分布相似;不同季节PM_(2.5)中铵盐形成的受控因素有差异,主要影响因素是气态前体物和温度、湿度;NH_4~+/SO_4~(2-)的比值(1.5),表明铵盐充足;铵盐形式主要为硫酸铵、硝酸铵,硫酸氢铵较少。     

宝鸡市夏季臭氧及其前体物污染特征研究

采用宝鸡市2014年夏季臭氧相关监测数据对臭氧及其前体物污染特征进行研究。结果表明:多云导致的太阳辐射降低对臭氧浓度下降贡献40%,降水对臭氧浓度降低贡献55%。O3与NOx在辐射时段内呈一次负相关,相关系数为0.96,在无辐射时段无显著相关性。O3与CO在辐射时段呈二次线性负相关,相关系数为0.92,在无辐射时段呈二次线性正相关,相关系数为0.96。宝鸡市夏季CO/NOx比值为40.5。     

Dynamic failure assessment of an ammonia storage unit: A case study

Chemical Process Industries usually contain a diverse inventory of hazardous chemicals and complex systems required to perform process operations such as storage, separation, reaction, compression etc. The complex interactions between the equipment make them vulnerable to catastrophic accidents. Risk and failure assessment provide engineers with an intuitive tool for decision making in the operation of such plants. Abnormal events and near-miss situations occur regularly during the operation of a system. Accident Sequence Precursors (ASP) can be used to demonstrate the real-time operating condition of a plant. Dynamic Failure Assessment (DFA) methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods incorporates ASP data to revise the generic failure probabilities of the systems during its operational lifetime.In this paper, DFA methodology is applied on an ammonia storage unit in a specialized chemical industry. Ammonia is stored in cold storage tanks as liquefied gas at atmospheric pressure. These tanks are susceptible to failures due to various abnormal conditions arising due process failures.Tank failures due to three such abnormal conditions are considered. Variation of the failure probability of the safety systems is demonstrated. The authors use ASP data collected from plant specific sources and safety expert judgement. The failure probabilities of some safety systems concerned show considerable deviation from the generic values. The method helps to locate the components which have undergone more degradation over the period and hence must be paid attention to. In addition, a Bayesian predictive model has been used to predict the number of abnormal events in the next time interval. The user-friendly and intuitive nature of the tool makes it appropriate for application in safety assessment reports in process industries.     

Operational risk assessment: A case of the Bhopal disaster

Accidental releases of hazardous chemicals from process facilities can cause catastrophic consequences. The Bhopal disaster resulting from a combination of inherently unsafe designs and poorly managed operations is a well-known case. Effective risk modeling approaches that provide early warnings are helpful to prevent and control such rare but catastrophic events. Probability estimation of these events is a constant challenge due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Therefore, precursor-based methods that adopt the Bayesian theorem to update prior judgments on event probabilities using empirical data have been proposed. The updated probabilities are then integrated with consequences of varying severity to produce the risk profile.This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework, in which a precursor-based Bayesian network approach is used for probability estimation, and loss functions are applied for consequence assessment. The estimated risk profile can be updated continuously given real-time operational data. As process facilities operate, this method integrates a failure-updating mechanism with potential consequences to generate a real-time operational risk profile. The real time risk profile is valuable in activating accident prevention and control strategies. The approach is applied to the Bhopal accident to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.     

广州地区SO42-、NO3-、NH4+与相关气体污染特征研究

本文获得了2009年12月1日至2011年12月31日广州二次无机离子(SO2-4、NO-3、NH+4)及相关反应性气体(NOx/SO2/HNO2/HNO3等)的小时浓度数据,并分析了其污染特征.研究结果表明:PM2.5的浓度季节变化特征为冬秋春夏,SO2-4的浓度季节变化特征为秋冬春夏,NH+4的为冬秋春夏,NO-3则为冬春秋夏,SO2-4、NO-3和NH+4之和占PM2.5的比重大小为秋夏春冬;硫氧化率(SOR)均大于0.1,秋冬季节的值高于春夏季节,与SO2-4的浓度变化趋势一致;氮氧化率(NOR)日变化呈单峰形式,最大值出现在06时,最小值出现在14时,春冬季节的值高于夏秋季节,与NO-3的浓度变化趋势一致;广州地区NH3/NH+4除10—12月外,其月均值均大于1;在典型过程中,SO2-4、NO-3、NH+4、SOR、NOR和NH3/NH+4与能见度的变化都存在较好的对应关系,说明广州地区低能见度与二次离子(SO2-4、NO-3、NH+4)的生成有关.     

前兆异常与地震相关性研究—— 一个值得广大地震学者重视的问题

简要介绍了前兆异常与地震相关性定量分析方法,并列举了在进行这方面研究中目前存在的薄弱环节和困难,以期引起广大地震分析预报人员的重视。     

浙北地震空区探讨

分析探讨了浙江鄞县４２级地震及历史上浙北中强震前的地震空区现象,认为孕震空区可能是浙北中等及中强震的中期前兆,并提出浙北孕震空区的特征及判别方法。     

Seasonal Variation of Chemical Composition in Fine Particles at Gosan, Korea

PM_2.5 aerosol samples were collected at Gosan in Jeju Island during six intensive measurement periods between November 2001 and August 2003. In order to investigate the chemical composition of fine particles, major ion components, trace elements, and elemental and organic carbon were analyzed. Quite different seasonal characteristic in the chemical composition of fine particles was observed. The concentration of most secondary aerosol components showed a summer minimum and a winter maximum with higher correlation between them at Gosan. This fact clearly reveals the possibility of long-range transport of such pollutants in winter. On the other hand, OC and EC had the highest concentration and good correlation with ion components, such as K⁺, Ca²⁺ in fall. It means that biomass burning could significantly influence the ambient fine carbonaceous particulate in fall, which was primarily long-range transported.     

聊古一井地下流体场源兆异常特征及震情预测检验

聊古一井由于其所处的特殊构造部位、良好的水文地质条件、井孔条件和连续可靠的观测,获得了一批有价值的实际地震观测资料,该井水化学组分的异常变化对其周围500 km范围内的5级以上地震具有良好的映震能力。在对聊古一井自1981-01投测以来观测到的水化学地震前兆异常进行综合分析的基础上,探讨了聊古一井水化学异常变化的场源兆特征及异常形成的物理力学机制和地震预报意义。利用上述研究结果,对聊古一井气体总量2003-05~2003-10出现的低值异常变化进行了分析和震情预测,取得较好的效果。     

基于大气成分观测网的山西省近地面O3体积分数分布特征

利用山西省6个大气成分观测站2019年3月至2020年2月的反应性气体O₃、NO、NO₂和NO_x连续观测资料以及同期气象资料,采用统计分析和后向轨迹分析等方法,对山西近地面O₃体积分数变化特征及影响因素进行了对比研究.结果表明,6个站的O₃体积分数一般在4~9月较高,10月至翌年3月较低,研究期内山西南部的晋城和临汾2站的O₃日最大8h体积分数滑动平均值φ（MDA8O₃）超标最严重,其次是北部的五台山、朔州和大同3站,中部的太原站O₃污染较轻.对比城市站和高山站发现,两类站点的O₃体积分数季节变化虽都表现为：夏季 > 春季 > 秋季 > 冬季,但前者主要受前体物NO_x光化学反应的影响,后者的NO_x并不是产生高体积分数O₃的主要来源;两类站点的O₃日变化谱型截然相反,城市站O₃小时平均体积分数的峰谷值分别出现在15：00和06：00,而高山站分别出现在20：00和10：00,分别比城市站滞后了约5 h;此外城市站的O₃日振幅明显大于高山站.就城市站而言,相较日照时数、降水量和总云量,气温对O₃体积分数的影响更为显著;白天的NO₂体积分数直接影响O₃的日振幅大小,尽管太原站O₃的光化学生成潜力也较高,由于被高体积分数的NO滴定消耗,O₃体积分数为城市站中最低;各城市站高体积分数的O₃对应低体积分数的NO_x,低NO_x以NO₂为主,高NO_x的贡献则主要来自NO,在较高NO_x体积分数时,O₃基本上完全被消耗.影响全部站点O₃体积分数升高的地面风主要来自东南、南和西南方向,特定的风速条件将导致站点O₃体积分数增加.站点地理位置不同会引起大气污染物输送作用的差异,而来自华北平原和汾渭平原高浓度O₃的水平输送很可能是造成山西各站点O₃体积分数升高的共同原因.