Application of an evolutionary algorithm to the inverse parameter estimation of an individual-based model

Inverse parameter estimation of individual-based models (IBMs) is a research area which is still in its infancy, in a context where conventional statistical methods are not well suited to confront this type of models with data. In this paper, we propose an original evolutionary algorithm which is designed for the calibration of complex IBMs, i.e. characterized by high stochasticity, parameter uncertainty and numerous non-linear interactions between parameters and model output. Our algorithm corresponds to a variant of the population-based incremental learning (PBIL) genetic algorithm, with a specific “optimal individual” operator. The method is presented in detail and applied to the individual-based model OSMOSE. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated and estimated parameters are compared with an independent manual calibration. The results show that automated and convergent methods for inverse parameter estimation are a significant improvement to existing ad hoc methods for the calibration of IBMs.     

喀斯特地区白三叶形态和遗传多样性研究

白三叶（Trifolium repens）的形态学特征随利用年限的增加而进化,单株叶数、生长点数、中叶长、中叶长宽比以及种群内个体之间变异性随着年限的增加而增加,而叶层高度、中叶宽则下降。三个不同年龄草地的平均单株叶质量、根质量、地上生物量、地上生物量与地下生物量的比值等指标数值接近,差异不显著。但是,与茎有关的指标如茎质量等差异显著,匍匐茎生物量随年限的增加而增加,以回避动物采食等干扰,并有利于占据动态空斑而增加种群的持久性。100年白三叶的等位基因数没有20年的高,意味着年限越长的种群以少数大克隆体占优势。     

不同干扰强度对沙质海岸带植物物种β多样性的影响

选择东山岛沙质海岸带4种不同干扰强度林分作为空间演替系列,采用样方法研究其β多样性的变化,结果表明：（1）不同干扰强度林分的植物组成和重要值差别较大,在天然次生林的乔木层和灌木层中,潺槁木姜子（Litsea glutinosa）均是第一优势种,重要值分别为98和137,群落结构稳定;择伐干扰群落中,潺槁木姜子变为乔木层第三优势种,重要值为33,灌木层中仍为第一优势种,重要值为128;皆伐干扰群落中其优势地位逐渐降低,乔木层已无潺槁木姜子的分布,群落结构简单、稳定性差;（2）β多样性（CJ、CS、βWS、βC、βR、CN、CMH）测度表明,随着干扰强度的增大,群落间物种更替速率由低到高呈现增大趋势,物种变化较大,共有种逐渐减少;研究结果支持了＂初始植物区系＂学说,为选择合适树种构建稳定高效的沿海防护林体系提供了基础资料。     

基于多模式逆向水质模型的程海水位调控-水质响应预测研究

以云南省程海为例,基于CE-QUAL-W2计算平台开发了水动力-水质模型.由于程海现有的数据不足以支撑开发可靠的流域水文与污染物负荷模型,为弥补由此引起的水质模型边界条件缺失的限制,本研究提出了基于逆向模拟与遗传算法的多模式负荷-参数识别方法来实现对水质模型的校正和鲁棒校验.应用校验后的模型对程海不同水位调控情景的水质...     

不同干扰类型对呼伦贝尔草甸草原群落结构及物种多样性影响的比较

采用样方法,对比研究了2009—2011年刈割和围封干扰对呼伦贝尔草甸草原植物群落结构和物种多样性的影响. 结果表明:2009—2011年,围封干扰下建群种种群相对重要值分别为15.67%、17.73%、17.60%;而刈割干扰下建群种种群相对重要值分别为16.86%、14.84%、12.36%,呈明显下降趋势;表明围封干扰可促进建群种种群生长,而刈割则有一定的抑制作用. 2种干扰类型导致的植物群落生态类型变化趋势差异尚不显著. 2009—2011年,刈割干扰下,Margalef物种丰富度指数分别为6.05、4.58、4.27,Shannon-Wiener多样性指数分别为3.13、2.89、2.79,Pielou均匀度指数分别为0.90、0.91、0.90;围封干扰下,Margalef物种丰富度指数分别为6.46、6.03、5.32,Shannon-Wiener多样性指数分别为3.26、3.18、2.98,Pielou均匀度指数分别为0.87、0.87、0.85. 可见,在相同年份,刈割干扰下Margalef物种丰富度指数和Shannon-Wiener多样性指数均低于围封干扰,Pielou均匀度指数均高于围封干扰. 说明围封干扰有利于植物物种多样性的维持,而适度的刈割干扰则有利于植物群落的均一化.      

Genetic profile of overweight and obese school-age children

Obesity is associated with overproduction of free radicals that promotes genotoxicity and could be measured as micronuclei (MN) and nuclear abnormalities (NA) in buccal mucosa cells. The frequency of MN and NA in buccal mucosa cells from overweight and obesity school-age children was determined. In a cross-sectional study, four anthropometric parameters were obtained from each child and one buccal mucosa sample was collected from each child. The slides were stained with orcein and fast green and microscopically analyzed for MN and NA. Twenty overweight and obesity school-age children (7–11 years old) from three schools located at the metropolitan area of Guadalajara were selected to form three groups with 20 children each, according to the weight features as follows: (1) normal weight; (2) overweight; and (3) obesity. No marked differences were found between groups for frequency of MN and NA. Genotoxicity, as indicated by increase in binucleated (BN) cells, was found in children within both overweight and obese groups exposed to passive tobacco smoke. There was no evidence of genetic instability in overweight and obese school-age children and no associations between body weight and genotoxicity markers found.     

Seasonal variations in physicochemical characteristics and cyanobacterial diversity of a lake in Northern India

Physicochemical analyses and cyanobacterial diversity of Ramgarh Lake water were performed at five sampling sites during winter, summer, and monsoon seasons. Higher load of solids, carbon, and nutrients were persistent throughout the analysis that indicates the conversion of lake from oligotrophic to eutrophic nature. High nutrients load enhanced cyanobacterial biomass, while low nutrients load produced relatively less biomass. The physicochemical parameters of water samples revealed minimum 2.9 mg L^?1 dissolved oxygen (DO) at site-1 during summer, while maximum (5.6 mg L^?1) at site-4 in monsoon season. Maximum biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) (40 mg L^?1) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) (126 mg L^?1) were recorded at site-1 during summer, whereas minimum BOD (18 mg L^?1) and COD (52 mg L^?1) were evident at site-3 in monsoon season. Minimum concentration of nitrate (0.72 mg L^?1) was recorded at site-3 in summer, whereas maximum 2.7 mg L^?1 was present at site-5 in winter season. The phosphate concentration was maximum (0.52 mg L^?1) at site-5 in summer, and minimum (0.18 mg L^?1) was observed at site-4 in monsoon season. Cyanobacterial diversity was higher during all the seasons, and dominated by the species of Microcystis at all the five sampling sites.     

Technological pluralism and diversity as fundamental prerequisites for sustainability

SUMMARY

A definition of technological pluralism and diversity is presented, together with a concept of viability, within the context of sustainable development. The existing contrast with technological homogeneity is also discussed in order to show that the former concept is a necessary prerequisite for the pursuit of sustainability, whereas the latter has led to a process of cultural homogenisation, with the generally acknowledged repercussions for past and present forms of development. The availability of a number of different viable options can be considered a fundamental prerequisite for the most appropriate choice to be made by both producers and consumers; whereas, if only one technical solution is available and ready to be implemented (or requires only marginal modifications), then producers from the various socioeconomic sectors are obliged to implement that solution. This may sometimes have its advantages but very often will have serious drawbacks which may well impede the pursuit of sustainability.

The question of the current form of product diversification is also analysed to see whether it may be advantageous within a sustainable society, and to discover if there is any contrast between this type of diversification and technological pluralism/diversity, and how this contrast may be overcome.     

乐安河-鄱阳湖段湿地表土重金属污染风险及水生植物群落多样性评价

以鄱阳湖重要支流饶河-乐安河段及其入鄱阳湖口的典型湿地作为研究区,采用单因子污染指数法、地累积指数法、内梅罗综合污染指数法和潜在生态危害指数法评价湿地表土重金属Cu、Pb和Cd的污染风险,分析比较不同评价方法的优缺点,并结合各样地水生植物群落的调查结果,分析水生植物群落物种多样性与底质重金属污染的相关性.结果表明,乐安河-鄱阳湖段湿地表土重金属污染以Cu污染为主,Pb和Cd污染程度相对较弱,Cu污染的主要来源为铜矿开采区汇入大坞河的酸性重金属废水.4种评价方法对乐安河段上游受矿区酸性废水污染较严重的6个样点的评价结果表现出一致性,均为极度污染;而对重金属污染相对较弱区域的评价结果则出现微弱差异,总体表现为自乐安河中游至下游,各样点重金属污染的生态风险等级逐渐降低.4种评价方法中潜在生态危害法的评价结果较为客观.各样点水生植物群落物种多样性与综合潜在生态危害指数、Cu的单项潜在生态危害指数呈显著负相关.     

外来入侵物种的基因签名及其遗传多样性聚类分析

密码子的使用频率分布能够反映一定的生物特性,因而可作为一种基因签名。本文使用CGR方法来研究外来入侵物种不同组织序列的基因签名及遗传多样性聚类分析,首先得出了刺花莲子草(Alternanthera pungens),紫茎泽兰(Ageratina adenophora),水葫芦(Eichhornia crassipes),微甘菊(Mikania micrantha),土荆芥(Chenopodium ambrosioides),一枝黄花(Solidago canadensis)等6种外来入侵植物的31条序列核苷酸字串长k=1到k=6的情况,并选取k=3,即基因序列的密码子,作为生物特性的一个重要表达。并且构造序列间的CGR欧式距离,进而对外来入侵植物序列遗传多样性进行了聚类分析。通过对所获得的6种外来入侵植物的31条序列的基因签名,得出如下结果：CGR是一种简便且计算量小的方法,且基于CGR方法的基因签名,具有典型的生物特性;入侵植物的基因序列在密码子的使用上是非均衡的,且物种亲缘关系近的,则基因签名相似越高;而且基因签名也揭示出了密码子的第三位碱基偏好使用碱基T的现象,与一般物种密码子第三位碱基偏好G/C情况有强烈反差。此外,从获得的6个物种的31条序列聚类谱系图可以直观看出,入侵植物间存在着一定的亲缘关系,遗传多样性较丰富。由于我们所建立的基于CGR方法的基因签名,不仅能够反映植物特性和进化关系,而且能揭示序列中密码子和碱基的偏好使用情况,因而该方法有利于对外来入侵物种的遗传多样性分析、风险评估及预防控制等提供科学依据。