Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

SYNTHESIS OF FLOW-DURATION CURVES FOR UNREGULATED STREAMS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE1

ABSTRACT: Flow-duration curves are concise pictures of flow variability at a point on a stream, and provide essential information for all water-resource planning. In New Hampshire, useful estimates of flow-duration curves for ungaged points on unregulated streams can be made using only information readily available from contour maps: 1) area of the basin above the point of interest; and 2) either the measured mean basin elevation or the elevations of the highest and lowest points in the basin. Measured or estimated mean basin elevation is then used in regression equations to estimate mean flow QC and the flow exceeded 95% of the time, Q₉₅. QC is assumed to occur at the 27% exceedance frequency. Q₀₂, Q₀₅, and Q₃₀ are estimated as multiples of QC. Equations are provided for calculating 95% confidence intervals for future estimates using the method. The dependence of mean flow on elevation is due to positive vertical precipitation gradients and negative vertical evapotranspiration gradients. The dependence of Q₉₅ on elevation appears to be due largely to the fact that it rains more often, that snowmelt takes longer, and that evapotranspiration is reduced at higher elevations.     

Concentrations of inorganic elements in 20 municipal waters in Sweden before and after treatment – links to human health

The water chemistry of 20 municipal water treatment plants in southern Sweden, representing various bedrock situations, and water qualities, were investigated. Four water samples, raw and treated, were collected from each plant and analyzed by predominantly ICP-OES and ICP-MS at four occasions from June to December, 2001. The concentrations of Ca, Mg, K, Na, HCO₃ and a number of micronutrients, varied considerably in treated waters from the studied plants (ranges; Ca: 9.1–53.7 mg L⁻¹, Mg: 1.4–10.9 mg L⁻¹, K: 1.1–4.8 mg L⁻¹, Na; 5.4–75.6 mg L⁻¹, HCO₃: 27–217 mg L⁻¹). The elimination of Fe and Mn from raw water was efficient in all treatments investigated, giving concentrations in treated waters below the detection limits at some plants. Softening filters gave waters with Ca-concentrations comparable to the softest waters in this study. Adjustment of pH by use of chemicals like lye, soda or lime, modified the consumer water composition significantly, besides raising the pH. It was estimated that drinking water contributed to approximately 2.2–13% of the daily Ca uptake, if the gastrointestinal uptake efficiency from food and water was estimated to be around 50%. The corresponding figures for Mg was 1.0–7% and for F 0–59%. None of the studied elements showed any significant time trends in raw or treated waters during the follow-up period. The concentrations of potentially toxic metals such as Al, Pb and U were low and did not indicate risks for adverse health effects (ranges; Al: 0.5–2.3 μg L⁻¹, Pb: 0–0.3 μg L⁻¹, U: 0.2.5 μg L⁻¹).     

Dip-angle influence on areal DNAPL recovery by co-solvent flooding with and without pre-flooding

A two-dimensional (2D) laboratory model was used to study effects of gravity on areal recovery of a representative dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) contaminant by an alcohol pre-flood and co-solvent flood in dipping aquifers. Recent studies have demonstrated that injection of alcohol and co-solvent solutions can be used to reduce in-situ the density of DNAPL globules and displace the contaminant from the source zone. However, contact with aqueous alcohol reduces interfacial tension and causes DNAPL swelling, thus facilitating risk of uncontrolled downward DNAPL migration. The 2D laboratory model was operated with constant background gradient flow and a DNAPL spill was simulated using tetrachloroethene (PCE). The spill was dispersed to a trapped, immobile PCE saturation by a water flood. Areal PCE recovery was studied using a double-triangle well pattern to simulate a remediation scheme consisting of an alcohol pre-flood using aqueous isobutanol ( approximately 10% vol.) followed by a co-solvent flood using a solution of ethylene glycol (65%) and 1-propanol (35%). Experiments were conducted with the 2D model oriented in the horizontal plane and compared to experiments at the 15 degrees and 30 degrees dip-angle orientations. Injection was applied either in the downward or upward direction of flow. Experimental results were compared to theoretical predictions for flood front stability and used to evaluate effects of gravity on areal PCE recovery. Sensitivity experiments were performed to evaluate effects of the alcohol pre-flood on PCE areal recovery. For experiments conducted with the alcohol pre-flood and the 2D model oriented in the horizontal plane, results indicate that 89-93% of source zone PCE was recovered. With injection oriented downward, results indicate that areal PCE recovery was 70-77% for a 15 degrees dip angle and 57-59% for a 30 degrees dip angle. With injection oriented upward, results indicate that areal PCE recovery was 57-60% at the 30 degrees dip angle, which was similar to PCE recovery for injection in the downward flow direction. Lower areal PCE recovery at greater dip angles in either direction of flow was attributed to DNAPL swelling and migration, flood front instabilities and bypassing of the displaced fluid past the extraction wells during the alcohol pre-flood. Additional results demonstrate that the use of an alcohol pre-flood can be beneficial in improving DNAPL recovery in the horizontal orientation, but pre-flooding may reduce areal recovery efficiency in dip-angle orientations. This study also demonstrates the use of theoretical perturbation (fingering) analysis in predicting NAPL recovery efficiency for flooding processes in remediating aquifers with dip angles.     

潮土施镍对小白菜的生物效应及其临界值研究

研究潮土施Ni对盆栽蔬菜的生态效应,并通过小白菜生物量的变化、地上部茎叶Ni质量比及土壤有效态Ni质量比来表征土壤Ni污染的毒性临界值.结果表明,潮土施Ni对蔬菜未表现出增产效应.施Ni量低于25 mg/kg,其生物产量无明显降低.随施Ni量的增加,生物产量呈显著下降,生物量变化与Ni质量比呈高度负相关.潮土施Ni增加茎叶和根系中Fe,Mn,Ca,Mg元素质量比,降低Cu,Zn元素质量比.4种性质不同的提取试剂提取的土壤有效态Ni质量比与植物Ni吸收均呈高度正相关,较好地反映了植物的危害状况,且以DTPA提取效果最佳.以生物减产量突变点为依据,确定潮土施Ni毒害临界值为:土壤全量Ni为41.86 mg/kg,有效态Ni质量比为2.55mg/kg(DTPA)和茎叶Ni质量比为22.39 mg/kg.     

Coupling effects of foam ceramics on the flame and shock wave of gas explosion

The coupling of gas explosion flame and shock wave is analyzed. In the gas explosion process, shock wave is affected by the flame directly, and shock wave also induces the flame. Inhibiting explosion can be achieved by the interference between the flame and shock wave propagation. If the coupling effects can be damaged, the adverse effects caused by the explosion should be mitigated and controlled. According to the structure characteristics of foam ceramics, the coupling effects mechanism of ceramic foam on gas explosion flame and shock wave is researched. When the explosion goes through the structure of foam ceramics, the flame can be quenched and the shock wave be attenuated. After the flame is quenched, the supply of precursor shock wave energy is cut off. Due to lack of energy supply, the destructive effects of blast wave will be reduced effectively. Coupling effects of the flame and shock wave can be damaged by the special structure of foam ceramics. Studies suggest that a certain function to represent the structure characteristics of foam ceramics must exist. For a certain material of foam ceramics, the sure porosity δ and the pore diameter d also can be get, which is the key to research and develop foam ceramic suppression technology of gas explosion.     

某炼油厂冷却循环水系统故障与危害性分析

根据采集的某炼油厂一年的冷却循环水系统的故障数据,采用故障模式影响及危害性分析方法对该系统的可靠性进行了分析.由该系统结构特点,划分了水冷塔、换热器、水冷塔风机、水泵、水管、阀门等7个子系统及19种故障模式,统计了各子系统的故障率,分析了系统的故障模式及其故障原因,计算了各子系统的危害度.结果表明水泵及水冷塔风机的危害度最高,换热器的危害度排第三,但其故障率排第四,说明在做故障分析时不能只统计故障率而不进行危害度分析.最后提出了相应的改进措施,经过一年的实际运行,效果明显.     

Investigating cumulative effects across ecological scales

Species, habitats, and ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, fueling a rapidly expanding research program to understand the cumulative impacts of these environmental modifications. Since the 1970s, a growing set of methods has been developed through two parallel, sometimes connected, streams of research within the applied and academic realms to assess cumulative effects. Past reviews of cumulative effects assessment (CEA) methods focused on approaches used by practitioners. Academic research has developed several distinct and novel approaches to conducting CEA. Understanding the suite of methods that exist will help practitioners and academics better address various ecological foci (physiological responses, population impacts, ecosystem impacts) and ecological complexities (synergistic effects, impacts across space and time). We reviewed 6 categories of methods (experimental, meta-analysis, single-species modeling, mapping, qualitative modeling, and multispecies modeling) and examined the ability of those methods to address different levels of complexity. We focused on research gaps and emerging priorities. We found that no single method assessed impacts across the 4 ecological foci and 6 ecological complexities considered. We propose that methods can be used in combination to improve understanding such that multimodel inference can provide a suite of comparable outputs, mapping methods can help prioritize localized models or experimental gaps, and future experiments can be paired from the outset with models they will inform.     

Extrinsic and intrinsic determinants of winter foraging and breeding phenology in a temperate seabird

In temperate regions, winter presents animals with a number of challenges including depressed food abundance, increased daily energy requirements, higher frequency of extreme weather events and shortened day length. Overcoming these constraints is critical for overwintering survival and scheduling of future breeding of long-lived species and is likely to be state dependent, associated with intrinsic abilities such as food acquisition rates. We examined the relationship between environmental and intrinsic factors on overwintering foraging and subsequent breeding phenology of the European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis, a diurnal marine predator. We tested a range of hypotheses relating to overwintering foraging time and location. We found that individuals greatly increased their foraging time in winter to a peak of more than 90% of available daylight at the winter solstice. The seasonal patterns of foraging time appear to be driven by a combination of light levels and weather conditions and may be linked to the availability of the shag's principal prey, the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus. There was no evidence that shags dispersed south in winter to increase potential foraging time. Foraging time decreased after the winter solstice and, crucially, was correlated with subsequent breeding phenology, such that individuals that spent less time foraging in February bred earlier. The relationship was much stronger in females than males, in line with their more direct control of timing of breeding. Our results demonstrate that pre-breeding intrinsic foraging ability is critical in determining breeding phenology.     

Do new health conditions support mortality–air pollution effects?

Epidemiological research underlying US air quality regulations documents significant associations between measures of fine particles and premature mortality. Recent studies examine potential mechanistic pathways, related to heart and lung functioning, that may contribute to the observed deaths. Our results support these pathophysiological analyses. We examine whether the onset of serious health conditions, consistent with disease pathways, is related to current and long-term exposure to particulate matter and ozone. Associations between air pollution and alternative indicators of health status are also evaluated. The 1996 wave of the Health and Retirement Study is used with a two-step estimator acknowledging limitations in our ability to measure individual exposures. The findings suggest significant current and long-term effects of particulates on new cases of heart attacks and angina, reinforcing the disease pathways identified in epidemiological studies. Long-term air pollution exposure is also a determinant of recently diagnosed chronic lung conditions and reports of shortness of breath.