邻苯二甲酸酯类雌激素活性联合作用模型分析

环境雌激素对生命健康影响受到广泛关注,现行污染物环境标准制订和风险评价只针对单一化合物而非混合物效应,不足以保护生命安全与人类健康。为探讨环境雌激素的混合物效应,选择对雌激素敏感的人乳腺癌MCF-7细胞增殖实验,检测雌二醇(E2)、邻苯二甲酸酯类化合物(DBP和DEHP)的单一及其联合雌激素活性;基于单一化合物的浓度-反应曲线,运用浓度相加(CA)和独立作用(IA)模型对混合物的毒性进行预测,并将模型预测结果与混合物实验数据进行比较分析。结果表明,E2、DBP、DEHP对MCF-7细胞的单一作用数据可通过Weibull方程拟合,由拟合方程得到的半数效应浓度(EC50)及95%置信区间分别为3.450×10-6(2.373×10-6~1.675×10-5)、5.138(1.489~1.082×10)、1.186(4.478×10-1~2.24)μmol·L-1;3种化合物的混合物数据亦可通过Weibull、Logistic和Exp Gro1方程进行有效拟合,混合物效应与化合物单独作用产生的效应具有显著性差异;3种化合物表现非相似联合作用,利用独立作用(IA)模型预测混合物效应较为可靠,外源性环境雌激素与内源性雌激素联合作用产生的混合效应显著。环境雌激素混合物毒性可以通过相加作用模型预测,为环境复合污染的风险评价和管理提供基础数据。     

Elite cues,media coverage,and public concern: an integrated path analysis of public opinion on climate change, 2001–2013

To analyze the factors affecting US public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2013, data from 74 separate surveys are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. Five factors should account for changes in levels of concern: extreme weather events, public access to accurate scientific information, media coverage, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy. Structural equation modeling indicates that elite cues, movement advocacy efforts, weather, and structural economic factors influence the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, it is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Promulgation to the public of scientific information on climate change has no effect. Information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.     

Economic analysis of effects on cultivated land following China's entry to the WTO

Inspired by the phenomenon of heavy reduction in the area of cultivated land following the entry of Korea and Japan to the WTO,countries with a large population and inadequate amount of cultivated land similar to China,this paper raises the problem of the potential effects on cultivated land in China following its entry to the WTO.The paper attempts analysis,using economic principles,of the effects of Chinese WTO membership on cultivated land from four aspects;tariff concessions,quota increment,comparative advantage,and the substitution principle.And the conclusion is mat China's entry to WTO may lead to a reduction in cultivated land.Finally,some countermeasures are proposed to resolve the problem.     

Effects of dimethoate on rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus using multigeneration toxicity tests

As important members of the zooplankton community and sources of food for fish, rotifers are used extensively in ecotoxicological research to assess the health of the environment and safety of compounds. However, most rotifer toxicity tests are only conducted using rotifer neonates derived from unexposed mothers, thus ignoring the potential transfer of contaminants from mother to offspring. To understand better the mother to offspring exposure, a multigenerational study was conducted using three successive generations (F₀, F₁ and F₂) of the common freshwater rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus to investigate the toxic effects of the widely used organophosphate pesticide, dimethoate (O, O-dimethyl S-methylcarbamoylmethyl phosphorodithioate). When the F₀ generation was exposed to five pesticide concentrations, the population growth rate (r) displayed symptoms of hormesis, characterized by the conversion of low-concentration stimulation to high-concentration inhibition. Despite this observation, the exposure to any given concentration of dimethoate reduced the population growth rates of the F₁ and F₂ generation rotifers. Significant differences existed between the F₀, F₁ and F₂ rotifers for the population growth rate under dimethoate stress: F₂ individuals were more sensitive than F₁, whereas the F₁ individuals were more sensitive than F₀. The results indicated that the parental exposure to a given toxic stress could result in increased sensitivity and decreased fitness in the offspring. This study illustrates the utility of multigenerational toxicity tests, which may better reflect and more accurately predict the effects of long-term pesticide exposure to aquatic organisms at the population level.     

莱特生物强化技术处理高浓度有机废水的中试

采用莱特生物强化技术(LTBR—Littoral BioReactor),对兰州石化公司化工园区高浓度有机废水进行了中试试验,进行了正常运行的常规标定、水量冲击标定、浓度冲击标定。结果表明:采用LTBR生物处理工艺,使用特效微生物和营养基质,可以在高COD、高含盐等不利条件下正常进行有机物降解,达到了必须将废水中的COD降至2000mg/L以下的试验要求,为处理高浓度有机化工废水的工程应用开辟了新思路。     

Bioaccumulation and biological effects in the earthworm Eisenia fetida exposed to natural and depleted uranium

The accumulations of both natural (U) and depleted (DU) uranium in the earthworms (Eisenia fetida) were studied to evaluate corresponding biological effects. Concentrations of metals in the experimental soil ranged from 1.86 to 600 mg kg⁻¹. Five biological endpoints: mortality, animals’ weight increasing, lysosomal membrane stability by measuring the neutral red retention time (the NRRT), histological changes and genetic effects (Comet assay) were used to evaluate biological effects in the earthworms after 7 and 28 days of exposure. No effects have been observed in terms of mortality or weight reduction. Cytotoxic and genetic effects were identified at quite low U concentrations. For some of these endpoints, in particular for genetic effects, the dose (U concentration)-effect relationships have been found to be non-linear. The results have also shown a statistically significant higher level of impact on the earthworms exposed to natural U compared to depleted U.     

Within season and carry-over effects following exposure of grassland species mixtures to increasing background ozone

Few studies have investigated effects of increased background ozone in the absence of episodic peaks, despite a predicted increase throughout the northern hemisphere over the coming decades. In this study Leontodon hispidus was grown with Anthoxanthum odoratum or Dactylis glomerata and exposed in the UK to one of eight background ozone concentrations for 20 weeks in solardomes. Seasonal mean ozone concentrations ranged from 21.4 to 102.5 ppb. Ozone-induced senescence of L. hispidus was enhanced when grown with the more open canopy of A. odoratum compared to the denser growing D. glomerata. There was increased cover with increasing ozone exposure for both A. odoratum and D. glomerata, which resulted in an increase in the grass:Leontodon cover ratio in both community types. Carry-over effects of the ozone exposure were observed, including delayed winter die-back of L. hispidus and acceleration in the progression from flowers to seed-heads in the year following ozone exposure.     

Mobility of Cd and Cu in formulated sediments coated with iron hydroxides and/or humic acids: a DGT and DGT-PROFS modeling approach

The diffusive gradients technique in thin films (DGT) was used to investigate the kinetic resupply of Cd and Cu to pore water from the solid phase. For the sake of simplification, experiments were performed using formulated sediments that differed in the presence or absence of humic acids (HA) and/or of iron hydroxides (i.e., goethite and ferrihydrite). The effects of the time after the contamination of the solid phase (aging effect) on formulated sediments that were coated with goethite and HA and spiked with Cd were also evaluated. Kinetic DGT results were interpreted using the newly developed, multi-compartmental model DGT-PROFS.Due to Cu humate formation, the addition of HA slightly increased the Cu concentration in the pore water independent of the effect of the iron hydroxide coating on the formulated sediments and slightly decreased that of Cd. The impact of 8-190 d of aging resulted in a significant decrease in the Cd concentration of the pore water over an increasing incubation time.Modeling our results with DGT-PROFS led to the following conclusions concerning the impact of HA and iron hydroxides on Cd and Cu availability. First, in the presence of HA and absence of iron hydroxides, Cd is associated mainly with weak sites, while Cu is bound to strong sites. Similarly, in the presence of both iron hydroxides and HA, Cu appeared to be more heavily associated with the strong sites than did Cd. When the incubation time increased from 8 to 190 d, a proportion of Cd initially adsorbed onto weak sites transferred to the strong sites, suggesting that the adsorption of Cd on sediments is controlled partially by slow kinetic processes.     

论碳关税的福利效应

哥本哈根会议上碳关税引发热议,成为发达国家和发展中国家讨论的焦点.本文从碳关税的内涵出发,梳理了有关碳关税问题的已有研究,通过建立一个简单的局部均衡模型,对征收碳关税情况下进口国、出口国的福利以及全球福利变化进行了分析,研究得出:进口国征收碳关税能提高本国福利水平,减低出口国的福利水平,但福利变化程度取决于进口国国内碳税、出口国是否征税国内碳税、进出口国国内碳密集度水平等情况.进一步.由于温室气体排放是全球公共品,用全球福利最大化代替进口国福利最大的约束条件,探讨了最优碳关税的确定方法,认为最优碳关税取决于需求函数和供给函数的值,由出口国国内碳税与外部性的差异与进口国国内碳税与外部性差异的比值来决定.温室气体减排是国际贸易面临的新问题,碳关税仅仅拉开了以气候变化之名进行国际贸易保护的序幕,如何有效地将国际气候变化规则纳入国际贸易利益的维护中是我们未来面临的重要课题.     

生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析

提高能源效率已成为我国节能减排政策的重点,但是由于经济系统内在的调整机制作用,在宏观层面所能实现的节能效果可能不及微观技术层面能源效率提高的程度,甚至还会诱发更多的能源消耗,该现象被称为“宏观能耗回弹”效应.本文通过构建一个中国环境资源CGE模型,测算生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹效应.结果显示,能源效率提高5％后,短期回弹效应为52.38％,节能效果仅达到技术层面预期的一半左右;长期回弹效应达178.61％,在高耗能部门竞争力提高、耗能产品出口扩张和经济增长的推动下,节能效果不但被完全抵消,总能耗还进一步增加.因此,生产部门提高能源效率在短期内确实能够降低我国能源消耗,但是由于回弹效应的存在,长期来看,在技术层面“产量相同投入更少”的努力反映到宏观经济层面则转变成“生产更多投入更多”,并且加剧了我国经济高耗能的偏好,提高能源效率所引发的产出增长和结构调整对能耗增加的刺激作用可能最终会抵消或者超过提高能源效率的节能效果.