环境内分泌干扰物质的健康影响与作用机制

本文综述了环境内分泌干扰物质与人或动物生殖发育、行为智力、免疫功能、肥胖、糖尿病、癌症等异常或疾病的相关性及相关作用机制,讨论了其"低剂量效应"和"复合效应",对本领域今后发展的方向进行了探讨.     

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world's biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of São Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design.Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species.Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes.     

网络化关键基础设施依存关系建模与仿真方法研究

针对关键基础设施(CI)依存关系导致的系统级联效应这一问题,在系统化分析网络化CI依存关系建模与仿真的各种方法之上,通过比较各种研究方法的优缺点、适用范围、存在问题,提出采用系统动力学和Multi-Agents混合建模方法,来模拟系统之间的动态关联关系的变化。最后,以一个水资源系统的突发安全事件为例,利用Any-Logic软件对事故所涉及影响到事故系统间的参数进行优化与数值模拟。结果表明:通过该方法优化试验确定事故水系统对其他关联系统的最优供给量,优化该地区的基础设施网络运作能力,同时有效防御系统的级联损失。     

介质阻挡放电等离子协同TiO_2-GAC降解甲基橙的研究

采用介质阻挡放电(DBD)等离子协同颗粒活性炭负载TiO2(TiO2-GAC)对甲基橙进行降解,研究了该体系的协同处理效果,探讨了放电电压、初始pH、初始电导率、初始浓度和TiO2-GAC投加量等操作参数的影响,并建立了协同体系的表观反应动力学模型.实验结果表明,DBD与TiO2-GAC联合处理表现出明显的协同效应,处理25min后,协同体系对甲基橙的降解率和COD去除率分别为96.2%和90%,与单独DBD体系相比,分别提高了52.7%和50.4%;协同体系降解甲基橙的过程符合表观反应动力学模型,模型值与实验值吻合良好,总级数为2.352;体系中H2O2、O3浓度测定结果表明,与单独DBD体系对比,协同体系的H2O2浓度增高,而O3浓度降低,说明TiO2-GAC起到了催化作用;TiO2-GAC在DBD体系中获得了原位再生,五次再生循环后再生率达80%.     

Economic assessment of rewilding versus agri-environmental nature management

Policies aiming at improving biodiversity often consist of costly agri-environmental schemes, i.e. subsidized grazing or mowing of semi-natural areas. However, these practices have widely been found to be insufficient to mitigate biodiversity loss. Rewilding, i.e. restoring natural processes in self-sustaining biodiverse ecosystems, has been proposed as an alternative and is hypothesized to be a more cost-efficient approach to promote biodiversity conservation. Rewilding requires the availability of large natural areas which are not allocated for farming, forestry, and infrastructure to avoid potential conflicts over the use of the area. We perform an ex-ante private cost–benefit analysis of the establishment of four large nature reserves for rewilding in Denmark. We analyse the economic effects of changing from summer grazing in nature areas in combination with cultivated fields and forestry to the establishment of nature reserves in four case areas. We consider two scenarios involving conversion of agriculture and forestry areas into natural areas in combination with either extensive year-round cattle grazing or rewilding with wild large herbivores. In two case areas, it appears possible to establish large nature areas without incurring extra costs. Additionally, rewilding further reduces costs compared to year-round cattle grazing. Two opposing effects were dominant: increased economic rent occurred from the shift from summer grazing to year-round grazing or rewilding, while cessation of agriculture and forestry caused opportunity costs.     

静态清灰袋式除尘技术的产业化推广问题探讨

介绍了由我国自主研制的静态清灰袋式除尘技术,并从该技术自身的技术经济优势以及趋严的工业烟尘排放标准两个方面分析得出静态清灰袋式除尘技术的产业化推广应用具有良好的基础,进而结合该专利技术拥有企业自身的情况,探讨了4种可能的产业化推广模式,并对相应的市场效果进行了分析和预测。结果表明对该技术实施产业化推广是可行的。     

高速公路关键地段路面径流污染特征研究

在对湖南省长潭西高速公路关键地段(学士收费站和服务区加油站)降雨径流水质进行监测的基础上,分析了高速公路路面径流污染物特征,探讨了各污染物的初期冲刷效应和各污染因子间的相关性。结果表明,收费站路面径流样品中的COD和SS平均浓度分别为70 585 mg/L,而服务区加油站样品的COD和SS平均浓度分别为120 357 mg/L。受汇水面积差异的影响,收费站处的径流污染物未发生初期冲刷现象,而加油站的径流污染物均产生初期冲刷效应,以COD最为明显,20%的径流量携带的COD含量接近50%。2个地段的各污染物之间相关性处于显著水平以上,SS与其他污染物的相关系数均大于0.7。     

2014~2016年间郑州市控制PM10和PM2.5污染的健康效益评估

根据郑州市2014~2016年间大气中PM₁₀和PM_2.5年平均浓度数值,采用泊松回归相对危险模型,评估了控制PM₁₀和PM_2.5污染后所能带来的95%置信区间下的健康效应及健康效益.结果表明,2014~2016年间,PM₁₀浓度达到二级限值后所带来的经济效益（以亿元计,括号中为置信区间,下同）分别为181.8（150.4,211.2）、242.5（202.5,279.4）和206.2（173.3,239.2）,分别占郑州市当年生产总值的2.7%、3.3%和2.5%;PM_2.5浓度达标后所带来的经济效益分别为178.8（143.7,211.6）、216.5（174.6,255.3）和172.5（137.8,205.5）,分别占郑州市当年生产总值的2.6%、3.0%和2.1%.PM₁₀和PM_2.5浓度达标后,城镇受益人数高于农村,急性支气管炎减少人数高于其他健康终端,对于慢性支气管炎,成人受益比儿童大,哮喘则相反.慢性支气管炎人数减少带来的健康经济效益最高,其次为哮喘,门诊和住院的健康效益最低.     

成都市PM2.5浓度变化的影响因素交互作用研究

为探究大气环境中污染物与气象要素交互作用对PM_2.5浓度变化的影响特征,利用成都市2014~2020年逐日大气污染物资料以及同期的气象资料,采用广义相加模型（GAMs）分析不同影响因素对当地PM_2.5浓度变化的影响效应.结果表明,单影响因素GAMs模型中,无论全年还是冬季,PM_2.5浓度与平均气温（T）、相对湿度（RH）、平均风速（Wind）、降水量（Prec）、O₃、NO₂、SO₂和CO间均呈非线性关系,其中CO、NO₂、SO₂、T和Wind对PM_2.5浓度影响较大,与全年不同的是,冬季T和O₃对PM_2.5浓度变化的影响效应较全年明显减弱.多影响因素的GAMs模型中,T、Wind、RH、CO、NO₂、SO₂和O₃这7个解释变量对PM_2.5浓度变化的影响均较显著,构建的全年多影响因素GAMs模型调整后的R²=0.759,方差解释率为76.42%,冬季R²=0.708,方差解释率为72.2%,无论是全年还是冬季,CO都是PM_2.5浓度变化的主导影响因素.GAMs交互效应模型发现,全年弱低温（7℃左右）+高相对湿度+高浓度CO+高浓度NO₂+高浓度SO₂协同作用条件下有利于PM_2.5浓度的生成;冬季低Wind+高RH+高浓度CO+高浓度NO₂+高浓度SO₂共存条件下有利于PM_2.5的生成,即该条件对PM_2.5浓度的生成有协同放大效应.运用GAMs模型能够对PM_2.5污染的主导影响因素进行识别,并定量化分析影响因素单效应及其交互作用对PM_2.5浓度变化的影响特征,对PM_2.5浓度污染防控研究具有重要指示意义.